Orioles pursuing Wacha?

[Tony-OH]

Looking at Wacha, he's got 3 separate fastballs (4-seamer, sinker, cutter) and a plus change up. That's why he's better against left-handers than right-handers. With Camden Yards playing "big" to right-handers, perhaps the thinking is can more success here as teams will need to to stack their lineups wit right-handers against him. While his xERA last year speaks to regression for most pitchers, Wacha has a history of out pitching that metric.

Now, my thoughts on him is this would be a disappointing signing after getting Gibson. Going into this offseason the Orioles needed to add one #1-#2 pitcher and a MOO.

If they sign Wacha, they then would have signed two #4-#5 starters. Not exactly what we hoped for but I do think Elias is under a tight budge from ownership.

Would a Rodriguez, Bradish, Kremer, Gibson, and Wacha rotation be terrible? Probably not. They would have depth starters in Wells and Voth, both of them can move to the pen as bulk reliever guys. They also will get Means back probably by July so that will improve the rotation.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Looking at Wacha, he's got 3 separate fastballs (4-seamer, sinker, cutter) and a plus change up. That's why he's better against left-handers than right-handers. With Camden Yards playing "big" to right-handers, perhaps the thinking is can more success here as teams will need to to stack their lineups wit right-handers against him. While his xERA last year speaks to regression for most pitchers, Wacha has a history of out pitching that metric.

Now, my thoughts on him is this would be a disappointing signing after getting Gibson. Going into this offseason the Orioles needed to add one #1-#2 pitcher and a MOO.

If they sign Wacha, they then would have signed two #4-#5 starters. Not exactly what we hoped for but I do think Elias is under a tight budge from ownership.

Would a Rodriguez, Bradish, Kremer, Gibson, and Wacha rotation be terrible? Probably not. They would have depth starters in Wells and Voth, both of them can move to the pen as bulk reliever guys. They also will get Means back probably by July so that will improve the rotation.

 

 

 OPACY played tougher to lefties than righties.

We need to stop buying into this, the wall going back only hurts righties stuff.

Lefties may hit more homers in OPACY but the overall production was less.

Edited December 15, 2022 by Sports Guy

[clapdiddy]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Looking at Wacha, he's got 3 separate fastballs (4-seamer, sinker, cutter) and a plus change up. That's why he's better against left-handers than right-handers. With Camden Yards playing "big" to right-handers, perhaps the thinking is can more success here as teams will need to to stack their lineups wit right-handers against him. While his xERA last year speaks to regression for most pitchers, Wacha has a history of out pitching that metric.

Now, my thoughts on him is this would be a disappointing signing after getting Gibson. Going into this offseason the Orioles needed to add one #1-#2 pitcher and a MOO.

If they sign Wacha, they then would have signed two #4-#5 starters. Not exactly what we hoped for but I do think Elias is under a tight budge from ownership.

Would a Rodriguez, Bradish, Kremer, Gibson, and Wacha rotation be terrible? Probably not. They would have depth starters in Wells and Voth, both of them can move to the pen as bulk reliever guys. They also will get Means back probably by July so that will improve the rotation.

 

 

I'd just as soon let Voth and/or Wells make the starts Wacha would be making until Means is back. 

[Yardball85]

If you are going to sign Wacha (which will probably cost $10-12M), just fork over 5-7M more for Eovaldi, who has higher upside and is better.  I don't get this obsession with half measures.

Sorry, I know I am a broken record.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Again, OPACY played tougher to lefties than righties.

We need to stop buying into this, the wall going back only hurts righties stuff.

Lefties may hit more homers in OPACY but the overall production was less.

I'm pretty sure Mountcasle and Hays would argue that. 

What are the numbers for lefties vs righties production at Camden Yards? Is this consistent year after year or just last year. 

What are the WOBA numbers for both?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Yardball85 said:

If you are going to sign Wacha (which will probably cost $10-12M), just fork over 5-7M more for Eovaldi, who has higher upside and is better.  I don't get this obsession with half measures.

Sorry, I know I am a broken record.

Yea it’s dumb. The whole, we don’t want to get into a longer term deal is stupid.

Look at it another way.

They paid 21M for Lyles and Gibson. Next year, you may look to sign another guy like that.

So, a 3/31-35 type deal.

You are in a long term deal, it’s just with different players. It’s the same guy, just a different name on the back of the jersey.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Again, OPACY played tougher to lefties than righties.

We need to stop buying into this, the wall going back only hurts righties stuff.

Lefties may hit more homers in OPACY but the overall production was less.

Where is that data?   Even if it’s correct, one season of data can have a lot of noise.   

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

If you are going to sign Wacha (which will probably cost $10-12M), just fork over 5-7M more for Eovaldi, who has higher upside and is better.  I don't get this obsession with half measures.

Sorry, I know I am a broken record.

When you are working off the dollar store budget, you have to learn to make half measures work I guess.

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I'm pretty sure Mountcasle and Hays would argue that. 

What are the numbers for lefties vs righties production at Camden Yards? Is this consistent year after year or just last year. 

What are the WOBA numbers for both?

Well, we only have 1 year of the wall to go by.  I wrote an article for ESR earlier in the offseason and this is a snippet from it:

 

The park factor for righties is 99. For lefties it is 94 (if you aren’t familiar, 100 is average, over 100 favors hitting and under 100 favors pitching). xwOBA for righties was 102 and for lefties it was 94. OBP park factor for righties was 103. For lefties it was 97. In terms of comparing it to other parks, extra base hits were about the same for lefties and righties. So, the idea that the O’s need to focus on lefty bats because of the wall is factually not true. Now, lefties will hit more homers (they hit the same amount as righties but in far fewer plate appearances) but they new dimensions likely hurt lefties and their ability to use all fields for power.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where is that data?   Even if it’s correct, one season of data can have a lot of noise.   

But one season is all we have. Everyone wants to make the assumption because of one seasons worth of lost homers and that’s ok but better, more accurate stats aren’t?

The bottom line is lefties don’t just pull the ball. They hit them all over and the new wall is likely hurting their ability to hit with power going the other way.

Edited December 15, 2022 by Sports Guy

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I'd just as soon let Voth and/or Wells make the starts Wacha would be making until Means is back. 

Consider Wacha as depth.   Elias knows there will be some injuries and non performance on the pitching staff.  Grayson probably only 100 innings.  Wells had injury last year.  Voth has not been consistent.   

Gibson and Wacha are just two major league starters that may benefit from O's coaching, defense and catching.   

That is if, if, if they do sign Wacha.

Edited December 15, 2022 by wildcard

[Just Regular]

A chink in the armor of the tight ship Elias will have to happen at some point as pursued players are higher up the food chain, but if Elias closed this one....would a credible source like Morosi having a smoke before fire report be the first time 12 or more hours in advance?

My memory is the Orioles themselves more or less got to unveil the Lyles signing, Mancini/Lopez trades and Gibson signing.

Last year his absences were May 3-20 and June 28-August 14.    The big one at the halfway point Red Sox called "dead arm", "heavy arm", etc.     Eventually, "right shoulder inflammation" given as a proper clinical explanation for "he's worn out right now".     The quicker May one was side soreness/intercostal irritation.

I think going in you know he's the kind of pitcher where you know going in 125 better rested innings probably serve your Club better than 180 if you have enough above replacement pitchers not to have to tax him.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, we only have 1 year of the wall to go by.  I wrote an article for ESR earlier in the offseason and this is a snippet from it:

 

The park factor for righties is 99. For lefties it is 94 (if you aren’t familiar, 100 is average, over 100 favors hitting and under 100 favors pitching). xwOBA for righties was 102 and for lefties it was 94. OBP park factor for righties was 103. For lefties it was 97. In terms of comparing it to other parks, extra base hits were about the same for lefties and righties. So, the idea that the O’s need to focus on lefty bats because of the wall is factually not true. Now, lefties will hit more homers (they hit the same amount as righties but in far fewer plate appearances) but they new dimensions likely hurt lefties and their ability to use all fields for power.

I’d still like to know where you got the numbers quoted in the article. 

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea it’s dumb. The whole, we don’t want to get into a longer term deal is stupid.

Look at it another way.

They paid 21M for Lyles and Gibson. Next year, you may look to sign another guy like that.

So, a 3/31-35 type deal.

You are in a long term deal, it’s just with different players. It’s the same guy, just a different name on the back of the jersey.

But on the positive side, you do limit risk with these one year contracts. I only want longer deals with guys with guys that warrant those years.

It appears Elias sees the value of going with these guys on one-year contracts and expects the next crop to be there the next year.

Whether that works or not will be shown ultimately in the win-loss record at the end of the year.

Personally, I would not have an issue with these guys to fill out the rotation IF we had a sure #1 and #2. Right now, we have a one potential guy in Grayson Rodriguez to one of those guys. Bradish pitched like one over the last couple of months, but I'm still in the wait and see with him over a whole season.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’d still like to know where you got the numbers quoted in the article. 

Stat cast park factors numbers.

Edited December 15, 2022 by Sports Guy