ZiPS looks at our infielders

[Frobby]

Buried in the Dan Szymborski article about the Frazier acquisition are the ZiPS projections for various Orioles infielders, minus Gunnar Henderson.  But another article already gave the projection for Henderson.   The projections vary as to the number of PA these players would receive, so I’m going to normalize them all to 600 PA.   Here are the OPS+ and WAR/600 PA projections:

Henderson 109, 3.3

Urias 106, 3.2

Westburg 93, 1.9

Frazier 91, 1.9

Mateo 83, 2.2

Ortiz 81, 1.6

Norby 97, 1.5

Vavra 94, 2.0

(I’m skipping Hernaiz, Cullen, Grenier and Prieto.)

For the benefit of @Roll Tide, the projected OBP leaders in this group are Vavra .339, Henderson .334, Frazier .326, Urias .325.

This really does beg the question of whether we couldn’t get the same or better production out of Urias, Westburg and Vavra that we can get out of Frazier.  I think Frazier is probably the best defensive 2B of that group.   I’m getting the impression that the O’s value defense pretty highly.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

I think it is more the left handed bat.

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is more the left handed bat.

Maybe.  I kind of hate that reason. 

[tabletop]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 I think Frazier is probably the best defensive 2B of that group.   I’m getting the impression that the O’s value defense pretty highly.

Yeah, seems as if run prevention is their go to when deciding on players at this point. Tampa Bay has always been a big run prevention team and it’s worked out well for them.

[MarCakes21]

9 minutes ago, tabletop said:

Yeah, seems as if run prevention is their go to when deciding on players at this point. Tampa Bay has always been a big run prevention team and it’s worked out well for them.

This is important, but for what?  Isn't one win one win?  Or does a 1 year 2B that does run prevention help get more future SPs?  I'm struggling with the analytics of this one.

[Roll Tide]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Buried in the Dan Szymborski article about the Frazier acquisition are the ZiPS projections for various Orioles infielders, minus Gunnar Henderson.  But another article already gave the projection for Henderson.   The projections vary as to the number of PA these players would receive, so I’m going to normalize them all to 600 PA.   Here are the OPS+ and WAR/600 PA projections:

Henderson 109, 3.3

Urias 106, 3.2

Westburg 93, 1.9

Frazier 91, 1.9

Mateo 83, 2.2

Ortiz 81, 1.6

Norby 97, 1.5

Vavra 94, 2.0

(I’m skipping Hernaiz, Cullen, Grenier and Prieto.)

For the benefit of @Roll Tide, the projected OBP leaders in this group are Vavra .339, Henderson .334, Frazier .326, Urias .325.

This really does beg the question of whether we couldn’t get the same or better production out of Urias, Westburg and Vavra that we can get out of Frazier.  I think Frazier is probably the best defensive 2B of that group.   I’m getting the impression that the O’s value defense pretty highly.

 

 

So I’m expecting for Urias to be traded and Vavra as a bench 5th INF/OF type. I would’ve rather gotten Benintendi and went with Norby or Westburg who ever is closer to ready.

[Aristotelian]

2 WAR for Vavra is really interesting. He should be a starter somewhere. 

[tabletop]

37 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

This is important, but for what?  Isn't one win one win?  Or does a 1 year 2B that does run prevention help get more future SPs?  I'm struggling with the analytics of this one.

In terms of WAR? No, 1 WAR does not mean 1 team win.

[sevastras]

I project Gunnar to be around 5.5 WAR, but I’m an Os fan and not a zips projector. I am serious though on the projection. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, sevastras said:

I project Gunnar to be around 5.5 WAR, but I’m an Os fan and not a zips projector. I am serious though on the projection. 

Maybe.  He didn't finish strong.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Maybe.  He didn't finish strong.

Yeah, I think that’s asking a lot in his first full season in MLB.   I’d be pretty satisfied with the ZiPS projection.  I’ll be interested, when the full Orioles ZiPS projections come out, to see what his 20th and 80th percentile projections look like.  

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is more the left handed bat.

He's not a home run hitter.  He's certainly not going to take advantage of the RF dimensions.   I do think being LH plays a part in it but I think it's at least 50/50 between defense and the LH bat.   I think it's the combination.

[Ripken]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Maybe.  I kind of hate that reason. 

It's the only reason.

[Jim'sKid26]

@FrobbyDo you think ZIPS has factored in the new rule changes? 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, tabletop said:

Yeah, seems as if run prevention is their go to when deciding on players at this point. Tampa Bay has always been a big run prevention team and it’s worked out well for them.

Even when Earl's typical 25-man roster was 16 Bats and 9 Arms, he wrote about preferring to make his best gloves his starting position players.    Defense never slumps, manage Crowley, Ayala to high leverage, etc.

I believe the few Run Production giants - Frobby, Eddie, my dad's fave Palmeiro, even Chris Davis - maybe had a little easier task capturing imaginations since most of the greatest Orioles position players have had the Great Glove, Good Bat shape - Brooks, Grich, Cal, Manny.    Adam and Wieters down the scale...we'll see where Adley and Gunnar land but they start with the high defensive value too.

One of the first organizing principles of hedge fund types deconstructing the game is Runs cost more money than stopping them.     A run saved might even be worth 2% more as a Club with a 700-650 RS-RA has a slightly better pythag than one with a 750-700 RS-RA.    Adam Frazier's here, and Michael Brant-forto isn't...at least not yet.   

Today's Rays probably would platoon more than 4/9ths of the positions except that streamer pitcher 13 is better at striking Ryan Mountcastle out.