Assessing the 2024 SP Free Agent Market

[nvpacchi]

There's obviously a lot of angst on the board about our lack of action in free agency - particularly in regards to starting pitching.  We could try to reason why until we're blue in the face, but one reason could be the class of pitchers that will be available next season that would be considered good to excellent SPs and won't command the AAVs that the Verlanders or even the Rodons of the world command.

This season the split is heavily stratified between the elite and nice rotation depth pieces.  If the O's aren't going to spend $40M AAV, and they think internal options are better or equal to Syndergaard or Quintana (for example) I can understand not wanting to firshfor starting pitching this year.  Chris Bassitt was the only option that felt like a nice piece that would have been a clear and obvious upgrade without breaking the bank.

But next season, there's a lot more Bassitt types available that the O's prefer to load up on.  Look at all these guys available that will be under the age of 32 at FA:

Aaron Nola

Blake Snell

Julio Urias

Shohei

The first four likely be too expense for Baltimore - although I'd love to splurge for Nola

Luis Severino

Lucas Giolito

Frankie Montas

Tyler Mahle

Jack Flaherty

Jordan Montgomery

German Marquez (club option)

Eduardo Rodriguez (player option)

Marcus Stroman (player option)

 

These guys are all probably much more in the range the O's would be comfortable spending.  And without knowing how this season plays out, I'd be much more apt to dish out money for most of these names over Syndergaard, Eovaldi, Manaea, Martin Perez, Quintana, and others.

Maybe the FA class next year has nothing to do with what's happening in FA this year.  But if Elias's true expectation is to compete next year, there's a lot of nice names that could be combined with another year of data to assess what type of starting pitching we actually have in-house right now.

 

[Frobby]

Just what I needed, a list of the good pitchers the O’s won’t make any serious effort to get next offseason.  

[E-D-D-I-E]

Thanks for the list NV. Sadly though, that list is worse than this years crop. Its filled with oft-injured starters who never became who they could be because of it. Ala Austin Hayes. A big step forward and a trade is our hope.

 

[Sports Guy]

I hate this thread. Not because of the post itself (well done post) but because this is the mindset we as fans have to be in.

I said it last year..I said it during the year.  You acquire talent when it’s available. How much better would we be looking right now if they had signed Stroman?  Or acquired Snell?  Or any other myriad of moves that could have been made to help the team in 2022 And 2023.

Instead it’s always wait until next year. It’s always next year and when next year comes, the team doesn’t do anything.

You want to know who the additions at P are going to be in 2024?  Someone who will be in the minors and perform well enough to earn a spot and/or a middling guy who will take a 1 year deal.  That’s it.

[Aristotelian]

I do think the strength of 23-24 could be a factor why Elias wasn't all in on Rodon this year. Probably the bigger factor driving the current approach is ownership situation. If there is any chance that gets resolved in the next year it is also possible you will see us much more active in 23-24.

Other guys you didn't mention:

If Scherzer has a good year, he will opt out and set the market. 

Means, Flexen, Perez, Syndergaard - second tier multiyear guys. 

Yu, Gray, Carrasco, Clevinger, Alex Wood, Lynn (club option) - older guys who may take one year deals

 

[oriole]

This is just depressing. If they didn’t spend this offseason then they never will. Payroll will still go up because of arbitration salaries and that will be the reasoning behind not going after supplemental talent. Unless we’re talking about back-end SP and utility guys. 

[Brian88]

Kyle Gibson will be available again next offseason 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

28 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:

There's obviously a lot of angst on the board about our lack of action in free agency - particularly in regards to starting pitching.  We could try to reason why until we're blue in the face, but one reason could be the class of pitchers that will be available next season that would be considered good to excellent SPs and won't command the AAVs that the Verlanders or even the Rodons of the world command.

This season the split is heavily stratified between the elite and nice rotation depth pieces.  If the O's aren't going to spend $40M AAV, and they think internal options are better or equal to Syndergaard or Quintana (for example) I can understand not wanting to firshfor starting pitching this year.  Chris Bassitt was the only option that felt like a nice piece that would have been a clear and obvious upgrade without breaking the bank.

But next season, there's a lot more Bassitt types available that the O's prefer to load up on.  Look at all these guys available that will be under the age of 32 at FA:

Aaron Nola

Blake Snell

Julio Urias

Shohei

The first four likely be too expense for Baltimore - although I'd love to splurge for Nola

Luis Severino

Lucas Giolito

Frankie Montas

Tyler Mahle

Jack Flaherty

Jordan Montgomery

German Marquez (club option)

Eduardo Rodriguez (player option)

Marcus Stroman (player option)

 

These guys are all probably much more in the range the O's would be comfortable spending.  And without knowing how this season plays out, I'd be much more apt to dish out money for most of these names over Syndergaard, Eovaldi, Manaea, Martin Perez, Quintana, and others.

Maybe the FA class next year has nothing to do with what's happening in FA this year.  But if Elias's true expectation is to compete next year, there's a lot of nice names that could be combined with another year of data to assess what type of starting pitching we actually have in-house right now.

 

Maybe we'll be in on Montas if he has a bad 2023.

[Just Regular]

Grayson Rodriguez is the only pitcher I think Elias might in time try to buy seasons in mass quantities.  

Might be good self-care to start visualizing Elias not meeting John Means' ask after 1.5 seasons of good work.

Are you as good as Justin Verlander?    If yes, we'll consider 2 years.

Dylan Cease's 2.5 remaining years are an acceptable risk since his salary is depressed.

If 2023 is successful, there's some chance the 2024 lead dog comes aboard in July.

[nvpacchi]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Grayson Rodriguez is the only pitcher I think Elias might in time try to buy seasons in mass quantities.  

Might be good self-care to start visualizing Elias not meeting John Means' ask after 1.5 seasons of good work.

Are you as good as Justin Verlander?    If yes, we'll consider 2 years.

Dylan Cease's 2.5 remaining years are an acceptable risk since his salary is depressed.

If 2023 is successful, there's some chance the 2024 lead dog comes aboard in July.

This is an interesting way to think about, and immediately makes my mind go to the Astros connection - which is (rightly or wrongly) where my mind always goes.

Fun fact, in the Jeff Luhnow/James Click era the most the Astros ever spent on a free agent pitcher was $30M - on Scott Feldman in 2014.  They obviously brought in Verlander, Cole, and Greinke through alternative paths, so there is undoubtedly a way to have success without splurging in the FA market. What makes the Stros different is they were willing to take on the payrolls of superstars to support their relatively affordable core.

Now the O's are in a position where they're not yet splurging on extensions, and could supplement through free agency without extravagant payroll increase.  So maybe that's the play - fork over prospects for someone like Cease if the Sox implode, or maybe even Burnes/Woodruff if Milwaukee wants to initiate a retool - while adding an arm like Flaherty/Montegomery too.

More than anything the are O's giving themselves a load of options for next year by not settling this year.  Although I wouldn't be opposed to a trade this year if the stars align!

 

[Just Regular]

I think its in play that if you could run the 5-year IP totals for the remaining Adley era 2023-2027, it would have Grayson at the top around 900 IP, and nobody else over 300 IP.      Maybe Felix and DL as Nasty Boys.

Because pitchers can't be trusted not to destroy themselves any given 12-18 months.     Whereas 3 years from now Adley's bad cases are say Wieters-ish.

I think Kyle Bradish today's favorite for 2nd place there, but he could be part of the trade bait for something better this summer.   If Means earns anything like the Taillon-Bassitt contract as I hope he does, its gonna be from somebody else

[MarCakes21]

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I think its in play that if you could run the 5-year IP totals for the remaining Adley era 2023-2027, it would have Grayson at the top around 900 IP, and nobody else over 300 IP.      Maybe Felix and DL as Nasty Boys.

Wouldn't it be awesome if Adley/Grayson competed with Molina/Wainwright for starts as a battery?

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Wouldn't it be awesome if Adley/Grayson competed with Molina/Wainwright for starts as a battery?

Can we keep all four franchise cornerstones?     In today's ownership situation I'm hoping for two, and feel like one is a strong favorite over three.     Jackson Holliday's free agency could be beyond Peter and Georgia both - what little I understand of it from here is the inheritance bill that many expect will be impossible for John and Louis won't be truly necessary until both their parents pass.    

In baseball terms, its an interesting barstool debate if Adley and Grayson are the unimportant ones relative to Gunnar and Holliday, figuring you don't have a quarter billion for everyone.

[24fps]

3 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Grayson Rodriguez is the only pitcher I think Elias might in time try to buy seasons in mass quantities.  

Might be good self-care to start visualizing Elias not meeting John Means' ask after 1.5 seasons of good work.

Are you as good as Justin Verlander?    If yes, we'll consider 2 years.

Dylan Cease's 2.5 remaining years are an acceptable risk since his salary is depressed.

If 2023 is successful, there's some chance the 2024 lead dog comes aboard in July.

I think the became Elias' strategy right around dinner time on day two of the Winter Meetings.

[tntoriole]

The only next year that will ever result in a change such as suggested in the OP is the next year after the Angelos clan gets out.