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Suggested Deal w/Marlins


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2 hours ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Big Hays fan here. However this is spot on. Sadly his past injuries have kept him from being the guy he could have been. The phone is ringing, it's Nolan Reimold.

I feel the injury issue with Hays exists, but is way overblown.  Through his age 26 season, Hays already is within about 180 PA of Reimold’s career total, and has more than doubled Reimold’s 2.8 rWAR total (6.4 and counting).  Hays has had two straight seasons of 500+ PA; Reimold topped out at 411 in his rookie year and his next best was 305.   So they really aren’t in the same category when it comes to durability.   I do think injuries hampered Hays last year, but they were largely fluky things like getting hit on the hand or wrist twice within a relatively short time.  

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Miami want an impact bat and MLB ready assets in return for pitching. Santander (571 AB) is more productive than Soler (270 AB) and Garcia (357 AB) who cost MIA $12 M and $13.25 M each. One can be traded and MIA saves money, gets more production, and gets younger: Santander (28 yrs), Soler (30 yrs), Garcia (31 yrs). Urias is reigning GG at 3B and his 403 AB replaces Rojas SS ABs traded to LA. Urias has better bat than Wendle (658 OPS) and Berti (662 OPS), is 28 with 4 years of control vs 32 for the other two. Lopez makes about $2 M less than Santander, is under the same team control (2 yrs) and stabilizes the SP staff while we determine what we have in Grod, Hall, Kremer, Bradish, and Means with Johnson and Povich coming. Santander and Urias are sell high candidates: will AS stay healthy again?; does Urias have a position going fwd with Gunner at 3B? Seems to make sense for both teams so what am I missing?

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20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I feel the injury issue with Hays exists, but is way overblown.  Through his age 26 season, Hays already is within about 180 PA of Reimold’s career total, and has more than doubled Reimold’s 2.8 rWAR total (6.4 and counting)…

Any injury comparison to Reimold is a bad look.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I feel the injury issue with Hays exists, but is way overblown.  Through his age 26 season, Hays already is within about 180 PA of Reimold’s career total, and has more than doubled Reimold’s 2.8 rWAR total (6.4 and counting).  Hays has had two straight seasons of 500+ PA; Reimold topped out at 411 in his rookie year and his next best was 305.   So they really aren’t in the same category when it comes to durability.   I do think injuries hampered Hays last year, but they were largely fluky things like getting hit on the hand or wrist twice within a relatively short time.  

The injuries,  'flukey' or not, take a toll on your body. Hayes has been on the DL 6 times in his career. Durability is a skill and luck does play a role, as you spoke of. Whether he has bad luck or not is irrelevant. The damage has been done. I think Hayes plays like his hair is on-fire and while I love that style of game, it certainly has made an impact on his career.

 

I like Hayes, he is my favorite current O. I hope he proves me dead wrong. The talent is there, of that, I have no doubt.

 

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I feel the injury issue with Hays exists, but is way overblown.  Through his age 26 season, Hays already is within about 180 PA of Reimold’s career total, and has more than doubled Reimold’s 2.8 rWAR total (6.4 and counting).  Hays has had two straight seasons of 500+ PA; Reimold topped out at 411 in his rookie year and his next best was 305.   So they really aren’t in the same category when it comes to durability.   I do think injuries hampered Hays last year, but they were largely fluky things like getting hit on the hand or wrist twice within a relatively short time.  

The problem is not always simply missing games. There’s also playing in games with nagging injuries that can negatively impact your performance. This has happened to Hays enough where it’s a clear problem. 

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I feel the injury issue with Hays exists, but is way overblown.  Through his age 26 season, Hays already is within about 180 PA of Reimold’s career total, and has more than doubled Reimold’s 2.8 rWAR total (6.4 and counting).  Hays has had two straight seasons of 500+ PA; Reimold topped out at 411 in his rookie year and his next best was 305.   So they really aren’t in the same category when it comes to durability.   I do think injuries hampered Hays last year, but they were largely fluky things like getting hit on the hand or wrist twice within a relatively short time.  

Unfortunately the issues with Hays not being a very good player (so far) are not overblown. When he's managed to stay on the field he's basically been a significantly worse defensive version of Alex Gordon (Royals). And the older he gets the harder it is for me to reason that he still has upside.  

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On 1/10/2023 at 1:37 PM, RVAOsFan said:

 

I was just suggesting a replacement for Mountcastle if we traded him for a pitcher.  My bad for making a ridiculous statement such as him getting longer than a 1 year deal.  I will make a note to take my next birthday away as punishment.

After seeing the details of the Mancini deal I have decided to put my birthday back on the calendar. 

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45 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’ll be interesting to see if this picks up steam once Profar signs since he’s the last remaining bat out there. I’ve noticed MLBTR has had an article every few days about the Marlins, but I think that’s just because it makes sense for them to make a trade. 

It'll be interesting to see if Profar does sign first. I'm wondering if some teams are looking at Profar as a replacement for whomever they trade. It's a lot easier to trade a solid OF bat if you can turn around and plug in a player coming off a 3 WAR season with a 111 OPS+.  

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