Who will be a better starter in 2023, Michael Wacha or Tyler Wells?

[wildcard]

Read through the Michael Wacha thread and did not see this question answered directly.   What do you think?

[ScGO's]

If its going to happen for Wells as a starter its probably going to need to happen this year. He is 28. He did really well in the 1st half before the injury derailed the 2nd half of his season. He's built his innings up each year, so hopefully something clicks and he can give us 150 IP at a 3.50-something ERA.

Wacha isn't a sure bet for over 120 IP. He has the better overall season last year, but his FIP was 4.14 on his 3.32 ERA. I'd go with Wells

[waroriole]

I’d rather give DL Hall a long look than run either of those two out. 

[Frobby]

I think it’s essentially 50/50 as to who would be better.   But is it better to have both, and let them duke it out, rather than taking the 50/50 gamble that Wells will be better?  Neither one is a great bet to throw 150+ innings anyway.   

I’ll admit to being pretty ambivalent on bringing in someone like Wacha or Cueto.  
 

[tntoriole]

It can’t hurt to have options as starting pitchers go so I am fine with signing Wacha. I think Wells will be a bullpen guy but this year will prove it one way or another as starter

[HandsomeQuack]

I would rather roll the dice on Wells, not to say that Wacha would be a bad addition. I don't trust Wacha's 2022 to be anything more than an outlier.

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s essentially 50/50 as to who would be better.   But is it better to have both, and let them duke it out, rather than taking the 50/50 gamble that Wells will be better?  Neither one is a great bet to throw 150+ innings anyway.   

I’ll admit to being pretty ambivalent on bringing in someone like Wacha or Cueto.  
 

I think so too. I like brining in Wacha because I like having both as options. We didn’t bring in star power in the rotation so let’s get by with depth. 
 

OD - GR, Bradish, Wacha, Gibson, Kremer

Depth - Wells, Voth, Watkins

June/July - Means, Hall

I’d like to see us pick up Zach Thompson off waivers or make a little trade. 
 

I think we’ll be in the thick of the WC mix with our depth. Especially if we do above. Then we get to see what we have in Means around the deadline, and what is there. Plus, are players such as Urias, Mateo, Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby, will likely have more value. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think so too. I like brining in Wacha because I like having both as options. We didn’t bring in star power in the rotation so let’s get by with depth. 
 

OD - GR, Bradish, Wacha, Gibson, Kremer

Depth - Wells, Voth, Watkins

June/July - Means, Hall

I’d like to see us pick up Zach Thompson off waivers or make a little trade. 
 

I think we’ll be in the thick of the WC mix with our depth. Especially if we do above. Then we get to see what we have in Means around the deadline, and what is there. Plus, are players such as Urias, Mateo, Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby, will likely have more value. 

I agree it is 50/50 on who is a better starter between Wells and Wacha.

But I think when I look and Voth who put up a 3.07 ERA in 17 starts and Watkins who had a 4.17 ERA in 20 starts there are plenty of starter innings there even if they don't sign Wacha.  So sign Wacha or don't sign him is fine with me.

[Aristotelian]

I could easily see Wells outperforming Wacha. I could also see Wells having higher injury risk with starter innings. I think I'd feel more comfortable with Wacha starting the year in the rotation and Wells in the bullpen just to have more options. 

[Sports Guy]

Who cares?  Neither should be an option.

And this question isn’t correct anyway. It should be, which situation are the Os better off…Wells in the rotation or Wells in the pen and Wacha in the rotation.

[Emory Eagle]

They have surprisingly similar numbers in terms of K% and BB% and other statcast statistics, with Wells having a slight (to the point of insignificant) advantage in certain categories.  In terms of stuff, Wells ranks better in FB velocity and spin, curve spin, chase rate and whiff percentage, although Wells seems to allow a higher hard hit %.  Wells is also younger.  Given the foregoing, I'd expect Wells to have the better season in 2023, but it is close.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Emory Eagle
typo

[btdart20]

I like Wells upside more.  Age, better spin rates and expected stats. 

xBA at .230 (vs. .254)

xSLG .404 (vs .446)

xwOBACON .338 (vs .387)

xERA 3.78 (vs 4.56) 

[Roll Tide]

Wacha

[sportsfan8703]

I’ll go Wacha. Wells just doesn’t K enough people. 

[jrobb21613]

Probably Wacha mainly becasue I think Wells ends up in the pen. I also don't think the O's should or will sign Wacha. I would much rather sign Greinke or  Cueto. I think both will be better SP's in 23 than Wells or Wacha.