ESPN Top 100

[now]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

1. Henderson

12. Rodruguez

17. Holliday

30. Cowser

47. Mayo

54. Povich

66. Westburg

71. Ortiz

92. Norby

Not only is it 9 guys, but look how high they’re ranked.  4 in the top 30, 5 in the top 50, 8 in the top 71.   Those are crazy numbers. 

I thought the Grayson comp was interesting: “Kevin Gausman, but with a better breaking ball.”

 

And look at Arizona with 3 of the top 8!

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Gunnar/Grayson are all but guaranteed on the OD roster.  Cowser/Westburg are probably fast-followers after the service clock gets reset for the additional year (but I'd say they should be on the OD roster to cram the ROY ballot box).  Norby/Ortiz are probably based on injury/performance needs, trades, and/or roster expansion.  And there's a chance they aren't in the ML in 2023 either.

Geoff Pontes of BA thinks Ortiz has a leg up on Westburg for the simple reason that Ortiz is on the 40-man roster and Westburg isn’t.  Cowser isn’t either, and with only 124 PA of AAA under his belt with so-so results there, I think he’ll be in  AAA for 2-4 months, depending on performance and need.   

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, now said:

And look at Arizona with 3 of the top 8!

Not to mention nos. 21, 32 and 96.   They can match or arguably exceeed us for top-end talent, but we’ve got more depth.  

[LTO's]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s amazing how little variation there’s been in Westburg’s rankings.  In the five rankings I’ve seen, the highest I’ve seen him is 66, the lowest is 76.   

McDaniel's evaluation is almost identical to Keith Law's.

Law: "He doesn’t have a clear plus tool, but makes plenty of hard contact and plays above-average defense at second or third, giving him a bunch of 55s on his scouting report that adds up to a solid to above-average regular because of where he plays."

McDaniel: "is now a bit above average at everything on a baseball field."

[Sports Guy]

Povich is too high but that gives us 11 different guys who have been on top 100 lists this offseason.

[LookinUp]

Color me shocked about Povich. I figured Hall, Kjerstad, Basallo and Beavers would be above him on lists.

Just wanted to make a note about velocity. A sudden jump like they described is often mechanical...getting behind the ball more (sometimes at the expense of movement) than what is naturally more side spin for a lot of kids. You often lose velo/efficiency with that side spin. If so, that would make sense that velo went up quickly but results didn't necessarily translate. That's because the spin you lose is often like the difference between a wild 2-seamer/cutter and a standard 2-seemer/4-seemer. 

If so, I'd imagine Povich is in the process of learning to pitch with the new velo as one tool in his toolbox. I know a kid doing the same thing right now. It's almost like a new pitch more than just added velo. Pretty exciting development if that's what's going on.

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Geoff Pontes of BA thinks Ortiz has a leg up on Westburg for the simple reason that Ortiz is on the 40-man roster and Westburg isn’t.  Cowser isn’t either, and with only 124 PA of AAA under his belt with so-so results there, I think he’ll be in  AAA for 2-4 months, depending on performance and need.   

Those are good points.  Especially on the 40-man.  I do think there's a perceived need for some OF depth, especially if there's an unwillingness to get Stowers some play.  I agree that Cowser will be based on performance and need, but I think/hope (neither are the right word) that magical combo will present itself by July.

[RZNJ]

Love the list but have to enjoy these for entertainment value and take them with a grain of salt.  No Hall in his top 100?   That's definitely against consensus.   He must see him with little chance of starting. 

[Hank Scorpio]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Love the list but have to enjoy these for entertainment value and take them with a grain of salt.  No Hall in his top 100?   That's definitely against consensus.   He must see him with little chance of starting. 

Was literally just typing this and spilled my coffee so I stopped. 

[NJOriolesFan]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Povich is too high but that gives us 11 different guys who have been on top 100 lists this offseason.

Another forgotten prospect who can give us 12 players is Seth Johnson, depending on how he comes back from TJ as he should still be considered a prospect.  Also a good distance away but can only wonder where Luis Almeyda fits in, in regard to our top 30 list.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, NJOriolesFan said:

Another forgotten prospect who can give us 12 players is Seth Johnson, depending on how he comes back from TJ as he should still be considered a prospect.  Also a good distance away but can only wonder where Luis Almeyda fits in, in regard to our top 30 list.

I’d be surprised if he appeared on lists. He likely doesn’t pitch much, if at all, this year. Can be come back in 2024 and play well enough to make any lists after missing 18 months?  Possible but I wouldn’t count on it.

Talent is there but is time and evaluation on his side?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d be surprised if he appeared on lists. He likely doesn’t pitch much, if at all, this year. Can be come back in 2024 and play well enough to make any lists after missing 18 months?  Possible but I wouldn’t count on it.

Talent is there but is time and evaluation on his side?

All I know is, the O’s were willing to part with Mancini to get him, and they were aware of the pending TJ surgery.   I’m hoping he’ll be able to get a few starts in this August/September, just so he’s not completely starting from scratch in 2024.   But, it’s no better than 50/50 that he’ll meet that timetable.   Unless I’m mistaken, he has to be on the 40-man roster next offseason, so I assume he’ll be fast-tracked in 2024 regardless of whether he pitches in 2023.

[LookinUp]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Love the list but have to enjoy these for entertainment value and take them with a grain of salt.  No Hall in his top 100?   That's definitely against consensus.   He must see him with little chance of starting. 

Always take these with a grain of salt. Particularly the specific ordering of players.

Cowser's such a great example. So is Hall. Both could be great players. Both also could never overcome their flaws. One has dealt with injuries. The other with a progression through the minors. Who knows if their issues are something they can overcome or not? To an outside evaluator, it's at best an educated guessing game weighing tools against a very hard to pin down probability.

But having so many players in consideration is amazing. Statistically, you'd think a few of these guys will end up really really good.

[Moose Milligan]

56 minutes ago, now said:

And look at Arizona with 3 of the top 8!

This ain't Diamondbacks Hangout homie.

[RZNJ]

I believe Henderson, Rodriguez, Holliday, Westburg are the only Orioles to make every major list to this point.