Vavra has been working on 1B

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Don’t get me wrong. I would rather have Vavra on the roster and not Frazier but Vavra isn’t an everyday player and unless he shows more of a hit tool, he will be a career MiLer/out of baseball within 5 years.

I don't disagree with this at all, and I'm not saying Vavra should be a starter. I think he's clearly a bench utility player. But it's hard to know about that hit tool from 100 ABs. I'd just like to see what he looks like as a MLB bench player for most of a season, or until he proves he's not viable. 

An .886 OPS in Norfolk is not easy to do, even if it's only 200 ABs. It's not a big enough sample, but it's not nothing. 

[sportsfan8703]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Maybe. If he doesn’t show power, his OBp will be nothing and his offense overall isn’t good enough for the OF or first.

I was high on Vavra but not being able to play second or hit for power basically makes him a pretty useless player. He has to show A LOT this year to stay in the majors.

Unfortunately this is true., but there is hope. I heard Vavra say that he had an undiagnosed immune disorder up until last season that wasn’t being treated properly. So hopefully that will take away the nagging injuries. Also, let’s hope he’s “in the best shape of his life” for ST and rakes. 
 

Vavra is going to have to hit in ST, and he’s going to have to put in time getting reps at every position other that SS and C. 
 

As of now his comp for the last bench spot is O’Hearn. I think we give Diaz a good chunk of time in AAA, now that we finally cleared him there. 

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its not ideal because that would be replacing Mountcastle in the lineup who is a power guy with Vavra who has very little power.   Vavra can hit for average and a hopefully a high OBP so its not terrible but far from ideal.

It will be okay if he shows the level of power he had in the minors (career .162 ISO, .127 at Norfolk), rather than the very limited power he showed in his short major league time (.079 ISO).   It remains to be seen if he can do it, but if he can, that’s adequate with his OBP skills.  

[Moose Milligan]

I like Vavra, he's one of the few guys on the roster that looks like he has a good approach at the plate.  I'll sacrifice some power for some OBP skills.

That said, he's gotta be able to stand out somewhere defensively if he wants to bring some real value.  

[yark14]

42 minutes ago, interloper said:

Fair, perhaps I over-estimated his speed then.

However, he's a guy you can pinch-run for Adley/McCann/Santander at least. 

Adley may have average speed, but his baserunning metrics are some of the best in baseball.  Only time I'd ever pinch run Vavra for Adley is if the game isn't close and we want to give Adley a rest.

[yark14]

42 minutes ago, interloper said:

Fair, perhaps I over-estimated his speed then.

However, he's a guy you can pinch-run for Adley/McCann/Santander at least. 

Adley may have average speed, but his baserunning metrics are some of the best in baseball.  Only time I'd ever pinch run Vavra for Adley is if the game isn't close and we want to give Adley a rest.

[Aristotelian]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It will be okay if he shows the level of power he had in the minors (career .162 ISO, .127 at Norfolk), rather than the very limited power he showed in his short major league time (.079 ISO).   It remains to be seen if he can do it, but if he can, that’s adequate with his OBP skills.  

I agree that could be enough to keep him in the majors as a bench player, but where could he play with those numbers as an everyday player if not 2B? 

[Sports Guy]

54 minutes ago, interloper said:

I don't disagree with this at all, and I'm not saying Vavra should be a starter. I think he's clearly a bench utility player. But it's hard to know about that hit tool from 100 ABs. I'd just like to see what he looks like as a MLB bench player for most of a season, or until he proves he's not viable. 

An .886 OPS in Norfolk is not easy to do, even if it's only 200 ABs. It's not a big enough sample, but it's not nothing. 

I’m not writing him off but the fact is that he has to hit and show some power. If he can’t, I’m not thinking he’s going to be a useful player.  Him learning to play first doesn’t make him more of a commodity.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Sports Guy

[BRobinsonfan]

30 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I like Vavra, he's one of the few guys on the roster that looks like he has a good approach at the plate.  I'll sacrifice some power for some OBP skills.

That said, he's gotta be able to stand out somewhere defensively if he wants to bring some real value.  

This is where I'm at.  We only get 27 outs a game and collectively the O's had a .305 OBP last season with only Adley(.362) and Mountcastle (.347) besting Vavra's .340.  Would be nice to see more players with the ability to get on base the way Vavra does.  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree that could be enough to keep him in the majors as a bench player, but where could he play with those numbers as an everyday player if not 2B? 

I don’t see Vavra as an everyday player.  But as a bench guy replacing Mountcastle at 1B on occasion, .258/.340/.385 wouid be okay (using his 2022 MiL ISO).   .258/.340/.420 would be very satisfactory (using his career MiL ISO).  And I think he’s capable of better than .258 BA, too.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

This is where I'm at.  We only get 27 outs a game and collectively the O's had a .305 OBP last season with only Adley(.362) and Mountcastle (.347) besting Vavra's .340.  Would be nice to see more players with the ability to get on base the way Vavra does.  

OBP only carries you so far.  By wOBA, which properly weights the importance of OBP and extra-base hitting, Vavra was at .303, below the team average of .305 and 10th of the 18 players on the team with at least 50 PA.   So, he needs to either improve his power a bit or get on base at an even higher rate than he did last year.   But, I think he may well be capable of doing either or both of those things, based on his MiL record.  

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

This is where I'm at.  We only get 27 outs a game and collectively the O's had a .305 OBP last season with only Adley(.362) and Mountcastle (.347) besting Vavra's .340.  Would be nice to see more players with the ability to get on base the way Vavra does.  

Mountcastle was at .305 OBP last year.  It'd be amazing if he could somehow get to .347.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Mountcastle was at .305 OBP last year.  It'd be amazing if he could somehow get to .347.

He could hit .330.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I really like Vavra. I know he was technically below average OPS+-wise in his 100 or so ABs, but he's a fun player. Speed, contact, very good ABs, will take a walk, can play wherever, left-handed. What's not to like? Give me that guy on my bench all day. 

I agree with this, and want to highlight the "very good ABs" part. He just always seemed to have good PAs so I was surprised to see his pitches per PA was a bit below average (3.72 vs 3.89). 

Either way, while he doesn't bring the pop that a O'Hearn can bring, I think his ability to get on base and be versatile with the ability to plat 2B and all three outfield positions makes him more valuable. Oh, and Vavra is a better than O'Hearn as a situational runner with 56% to 27% extra base percentage, and scoring all 5 times from 2nd base on singles (100%) while O'Hearn scored one time out of three (33%). Small sample sizes but clearly Vavra, while not super fleet of foot, is a better runner than O'Hearn.

[LA2]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Good to hear. I've been wondering if this might be a role for him. Could turn into a Terry Crowley type. I could see that being a better use of the last roster spot than Tyler Nevin. 

Except that the Crow had some power in his bat--not a slugger but enough to be a real threat, esp. against RHP (42 homers in 1470 ABs). Like Vavra though, he did walk a lot.