Keith Law’s O’s top 20

[LTO's]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which is the more difficult position to come into as a GM?

A job in which you can come in and name the person you want to be manager or a job in which you come into with a charismatic, media savvy veteran manager who has prior experience as a GM and the ear of the owner?

If the manager is good and has the respect of the players, like Buck did, then I would say that situation is not more difficult. You may disagree with that and that's fine. I will say that by the time DD and Buck were really butting heads, if it were up to me, neither of them would be involved in making those decisions. DD wasn't a quality ML GM at that point and Buck should've just been doing manager things. 

In any event, give me the team with a ton of young talent on the precipice of success over a damn near 120 loss team with no player development apparatus no matter who the manager is. 

[LTO's]

13 minutes ago, deward said:

KC was a wild card team that got blazing hot in Aug-Sep and carried it over to the post-season. They were the hottest team in baseball at the time, not the best.

They were better than the Orioles. Maybe the weren't in April-June, but that's not what matters. Should be obvious this is true considering they ran through the AL the next year and won the WS while the Orioles needed an act of God to just reach .500. The sad fact is that the Orioles were never really all that close to winning a World Series under DD/Buck. It was much better than the decade+ that came before them but when you look at it objectively, it was never happening. if you're measure of success is just being generally competitive for a couple of years then I see why you think more highly of him than I do. 

[Stotle]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

They were better than the Orioles. Maybe the weren't in April-June, but that's not what matters. Should be obvious this is true considering they ran through the AL the next year and won the WS while the Orioles needed an act of God to just reach .500. The sad fact is that the Orioles were never really all that close to winning a World Series under DD/Buck. It was much better than the decade+ that came before them but when you look at it objectively, it was never happening. if you're measure of success is just being generally competitive for a couple of years then I see why you think more highly of him than I do. 

Have to say I agree Baltimore was never really close to winning a WS and to this day I am sad the O's abandoned continuing to build up the org for a few years of success. It gutted the system, involved trading depth guys away for short term stuff and led to disasters link the Chris Davis extension. I get why some are fans of Duquette's, but to me it was the epitome of "get to the playoffs and see if you can get hot/lucky." There was never any threat Baltimore was on track to be a long-term power during those years. Under Elias, there is at least a foundation being built. Just too bad it's at a time when so many other teams are doing similar. Getting a competitive advantage in the division is not going to be easy. 

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, deward said:

What interim GM? MacPhail stepped down right after the season ended in Oct 2011 and DD was hired Nov 2011. 

In that time after MacPhail stepped down and before Duquette was hired, about one month, somebody was calling the shots, but it’s not clear exactly how decisions were made.  So far as I can see, the only acquisition transaction in that period was claiming O’Day off waivers from the Rangers.   I’m sure Buck had input into that; whether he was the decidion-maker, I don’t know.  As I’ve mentioned, O’s scouts also were looking at Wei-Yin Chen during that time, and Buck mentioned him at some fan banquet before Duquette was hired. But, Chen wasn’t signed until 2 months after Dan took over, so he can’t be counted as a transaction by the “interim GM.”

[Can_of_corn]

Not sure how many Dan fans we have.  I think folks have gone a bit too hard on him with the benefit of hindsight.   As this was going on many folks here were in favor of short term moves to win now.  Go reread the Davis deal thread.

I was one of the ones hoping for a more sustainable model.  Some folks I'm sure thought it was hilarious I was upset about trading draft picks and International slot money.

I think Dan Buck and Peter all cared about winning now and not a bit about what was left behind when they walked.

[CharmCityHokie]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In that time after MacPhail stepped down and before Duquette was hired, about one month, somebody was calling the shots, but it’s not clear exactly how decisions were made.  So far as I can see, the only acquisition transaction in that period was claiming O’Day off waivers from the Rangers.   I’m sure Buck had input into that; whether he was the decidion-maker, I don’t know.  As I’ve mentioned, O’s scouts also were looking at Wei-Yin Chen during that time, and Buck mentioned him at some fan banquet before Duquette was hired. But, Chen wasn’t signed until 2 months after Dan took over, so he can’t be counted as a transaction by the “interim GM.”

Buck definitely had input into the O'Day claim (https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-orioles-executive-vice-president-dan-duquette-on-darren-oday-signing-20130218-story.html) but I think they were trying to steer a rudderless ship by committee until Duq was hired, so the idea that Buck made a recommendation and they followed through seemed to get played up to "Buck was acting as GM" which simply wasn't true, even if Buck would like to believe it was. 

[CharmCityHokie]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not sure how many Dan fans we have.  I think folks have gone a bit too hard on him with the benefit of hindsight.   As this was going on many folks here were in favor of short term moves to win now.  Go reread the Davis deal thread.

I was one of the ones hoping for a more sustainable model.  Some folks I'm sure thought it was hilarious I was upset about trading draft picks and International slot money.

I think Dan Buck and Peter all cared about winning now and not a bit about what was left behind when they walked.

That whole "Flags Fly Forever" concept really does a world of good for GMs and Managers' short-term job security...well unless you work for Jim Crane, but other than that.

[deward]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In that time after MacPhail stepped down and before Duquette was hired, about one month, somebody was calling the shots, but it’s not clear exactly how decisions were made.  So far as I can see, the only acquisition transaction in that period was claiming O’Day off waivers from the Rangers.   I’m sure Buck had input into that; whether he was the decidion-maker, I don’t know.  As I’ve mentioned, O’s scouts also were looking at Wei-Yin Chen during that time, and Buck mentioned him at some fan banquet before Duquette was hired. But, Chen wasn’t signed until 2 months after Dan took over, so he can’t be counted as a transaction by the “interim GM.”

Yeah, I missed the O'Day transaction when I was looking to see what activity there was between when MacPhail stepped down and DD was hired. I definitely don't recall anyone being named interim GM, but obviously someone had to make that call. The big(ger) stuff waited for when DD was on board. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, deward said:

Yeah, I missed the O'Day transaction when I was looking to see what activity there was between when MacPhail stepped down and DD was hired. I definitely don't recall anyone being named interim GM, but obviously someone had to make that call. The big(ger) stuff waited for when DD was on board. 

In truth, nothing much happens that time of year. The World Series didn’t end until October 28, Duquette was hired November 7.  

[deward]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not sure how many Dan fans we have.  I think folks have gone a bit too hard on him with the benefit of hindsight.   As this was going on many folks here were in favor of short term moves to win now.  Go reread the Davis deal thread.

I was one of the ones hoping for a more sustainable model.  Some folks I'm sure thought it was hilarious I was upset about trading draft picks and International slot money.

I think Dan Buck and Peter all cared about winning now and not a bit about what was left behind when they walked.

I'm not really the world's biggest DD booster, but the idea that he was a bad overall GM is just silly, and contrary to clear evidence based on results. The approach of the last 2-3 years of his tenure here carried obvious risks that played out into pretty much a worst-case scenario in 2018. It's hard to say how much of that DD saw coming and was prevented from properly addressing vs whether he was truly blind to how fragile things were. It wasn't like he hadn't proven that he knew how to build a farm system in his other stops. 

The foundation of the team is obviously stronger now than it was at any point in Duq's tenure. I'm hopeful that the long-term results will be better, but Elias still needs to prove that he can put winners on the field as consistently as DD did.

[Il BuonO]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not sure how many Dan fans we have.  I think folks have gone a bit too hard on him with the benefit of hindsight.   As this was going on many folks here were in favor of short term moves to win now.  Go reread the Davis deal thread.

I was one of the ones hoping for a more sustainable model.  Some folks I'm sure thought it was hilarious I was upset about trading draft picks and International slot money.

I think Dan Buck and Peter all cared about winning now and not a bit about what was left behind when they walked.

There weren’t many of us. Speaking of that, does Stotle still drop in?

[Il BuonO]

Ha! Never mind

[Il BuonO]

50 minutes ago, Stotle said:

Have to say I agree Baltimore was never really close to winning a WS and to this day I am sad the O's abandoned continuing to build up the org for a few years of success. It gutted the system, involved trading depth guys away for short term stuff and led to disasters link the Chris Davis extension. I get why some are fans of Duquette's, but to me it was the epitome of "get to the playoffs and see if you can get hot/lucky." There was never any threat Baltimore was on track to be a long-term power during those years. Under Elias, there is at least a foundation being built. Just too bad it's at a time when so many other teams are doing similar. Getting a competitive advantage in the division is not going to be easy. 

Good to see you’re still here. 

As you mentioned, I never had a feeling there was any long term plan. There was “win-now” mode. Not that I was particularly a DD fan, but it was never going to change with PA holding the purse strings.

Buck was another matter. I thought he was the right hire at the time and he succeeded in changing the clubhouse culture, but as time wore on the loyalty to vets thing was frustrating. Not to mention usage, or lack thereof, regarding a certain pitcher in the WC game. That, and his input with Angelos in the CD deal sealed his fate for me.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Good to see you’re still here. 

As you mentioned, I never had a feeling there was any long term plan. There was “win-now” mode. Not that I was particularly a DD fan, but it was never going to change with PA holding the purse strings.

Buck was another matter. I thought he was the right hire at the time and he succeeded in changing the clubhouse culture, but as time wore on the loyalty to vets thing was frustrating. Not to mention usage, or lack thereof, regarding a certain pitcher in the WC game. That, and his input with Angelos in the CD deal sealed his fate for me.

It bothered me he would go after guys like Kim (Fitness) and Mountcastle (approach) while not saying anything about Tillman or Jones.

[Stotle]

22 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Good to see you’re still here. 

As you mentioned, I never had a feeling there was any long term plan. There was “win-now” mode. Not that I was particularly a DD fan, but it was never going to change with PA holding the purse strings.

Buck was another matter. I thought he was the right hire at the time and he succeeded in changing the clubhouse culture, but as time wore on the loyalty to vets thing was frustrating. Not to mention usage, or lack thereof, regarding a certain pitcher in the WC game. That, and his input with Angelos in the CD deal sealed his fate for me.

I agree with much of what you're saying. I think Buck was the right guy for what the org was doing. I also think it's incumbent on a general manager to speak truth to power regarding likelihood of competing. If you are going to push in the way Baltimore did I hope it was done noting it was likely to have a hugely negative impact on sustainability. I think yearning for a World Series is understandable, but not at the expense of being a competently functioning organization. Chasing lightening in a bottle isn't interesting to me -- not as a fan and not from an analysts/consulting standpoint. Build an org that is always innovating and at the forefront and give me a decade of 81-93 win seasons and I'll take that over five years of being among the worst team's in baseball, two of 81-93, and three of 87-95.