How much of Bichette Arb 3-year Sum would you offer Mullins?

[Just Regular]

Cot's has Mullins at 3.078 service time set to take home $4.1mm as he and the Orioles settled on an Arb1 number.

Bichette at 3.063 just agreed to ~3/36 for his Arb years.     As I've suggested might appeal to Mullins, the first few of Bichette's millions comes via Signing Bonus immediately.     Bichette was the 66th pick his draft year, and only pulled a $1.1mm bonus, so to date baseball earnings wise had that, a few years at the minimum, and whatever other minor league pay he'd gotten.

Counting 2023 bonus and salary together, the Bichette cost certainty for 2023-2025 goes basically 6/12/18.     No free agent years were sold or bought.

B-Ref gives Bichette 3.5.1998 12.9 WAR in 1727 PA, and Mullins 10.1.1994 9.2 WAR in 1765 PA, though his WAR/600 is still slowed by the switch-hitting days.    3/27?

[wildcard]

Two difference kind of players.  Bichette is a hitter.  His defense is just ok.  He will probably hit into his mid 30s.    Mullins makes his living with his legs.  He is 28 and his production will probably decline in the next few years as he ages.  

I would not extend Mullins or even offer a 3 year deal for his 3rd, 4th and 5th seasons.

[ThisIsBirdland]

Maybe a dumb question but what's the point of giving someone an extension that only covers arbitration covered years? Don't teams typically want to buy out potential free agency years on these extensions?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Maybe a dumb question but what's the point of giving someone an extension that only covers arbitration covered years? Don't teams typically want to buy out potential free agency years on these extensions?

1. Price certainty.
2. The price was too good to turn down.
3. Trying to foster goodwill with the player in hope it pays future dividends.

My guess is it is a lot of 3 with a bit of 1.

[Frobby]

Because Mullins is about 3.5 years older, his ratio of WAR compared to Bichette will probably decrease over the 3 years. If I’m guessing, I’d say Mullins earns something like 3/$23 mm in his 3 Arb years, going year by year.  No reason to guarantee his three years now unless the team is getting options in exchange and/or a discount off the price of the three years.  

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Maybe a dumb question but what's the point of giving someone an extension that only covers arbitration covered years? Don't teams typically want to buy out potential free agency years on these extensions?

I had the same question. Team assumes all the risk, doesn't get anything out of it. Weird deal. I don't see why we'd do it unless we got team friendly prices.

[jabba72]

Mullins will be 30 entering the 2025 season, his final year of team control with the Orioles.

I dont see the point in buying out that year. 

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Mullins will be 30 entering the 2025 season, his final year of team control with the Orioles.

I dont see the point in buying out that year. 

I don’t really know what age 30 has to do with it.   Aaron Judge was 30 last year.  How’d he do?   

To me, at almost any age, there’s not much reason to buy out years in which the player is already under team control, unless (1) the player is giving a significant discount off what he’s likely to be worth if he remains healthy, and/or (2) the player is also extending past the years of team control.  
 

[jabba72]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t really know what age 30 has to do with it.   Aaron Judge was 30 last year.  How’d he do?   

To me, at almost any age, there’s not much reason to buy out years in which the player is already under team control, unless (1) the player is giving a significant discount off what he’s likely to be worth if he remains healthy, and/or (2) the player is also extending past the years of team control.  
 

Well, Mullins does play CF which requires plus range to play. He's already slowing down looking at statcast, at least he was the last time I checked it. I dont think Mullins will be a plus CF at age 31, put it that way.

But we have him through age 30.

[Sports Guy]

None of it.  Zero benefit to this type of deal imo.

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

None of it.  Zero benefit to this type of deal imo.

Would you do it at 3/$18 mm?  3/$15 mm?  There’s always some price where it makes sense for the team.  But most players don’t want to give that big a discount.   

Going back to Bichette’s deal, which I understand guarantees $33.6 mm but could reach $40 mm+ If incentives are reached, that’s a crappy deal for the Blue Jays IMO.   But they have something of a history of overpaying guys in their Arb years.  
 

[HakunaSakata]

13 hours ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Maybe a dumb question but what's the point of giving someone an extension that only covers arbitration covered years? Don't teams typically want to buy out potential free agency years on these extensions?

 

12 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I had the same question. Team assumes all the risk, doesn't get anything out of it. Weird deal. I don't see why we'd do it unless we got team friendly prices.

I think this article answers most of your questions. 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/the-factors-that-helped-bo-bichette-blue-jays-avoid-the-risks-of-an-arbitration-hearing/

[LTO's]

50 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

I dont think Mullins will be a plus CF at age 31, put it that way.

I'd easily take that bet

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Would you do it at 3/$18 mm?  3/$15 mm?  There’s always some price where it makes sense for the team.  But most players don’t want to give that big a discount.   

Going back to Bichette’s deal, which I understand guarantees $33.6 mm but could reach $40 mm+ If incentives are reached, that’s a crappy deal for the Blue Jays IMO.   But they have something of a history of overpaying guys in their Arb years.  
 

I would potentially extend him if I felt I was “stealing”, which I think 3/15 would qualify. I would trade him either way though, which is why I don’t care so much about signing him.

For me, I have felt he should have been dealt by now but as of today, I have zero interest on him being on the team for the 2024 season.

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I'd easily take that bet

Are we talking about a plus CF defensively, or overall?  Last year, in outs above average in CF, only two of the top 15 were over 30:  #12 Michael A. Taylor (31) and #15 Enrique Hernandez (30).   Therefore, I’d be hesitant to say Mullins will still be above average at age 31.   It’s not impossible, but I’d say the odds are not in his favor.