Schoenfeld gives Os offseason a D+

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

"Too much" is relative to the organization. 

Are you saying that money in free agency and players in a trade are comparable?

If so, that is foolish.

Of course it is, depending on the team.

The Marlins would much rather give up a few cost controlled assets for a cost controlled CFer vs paying 160M for one.

Thats obvious.

Now, would the Mets or Yankees or Dodgers see it that way?  Maybe, maybe not.  The Dodgers held back on spending this year because of the luxury tax.

You can trade players and they become nothing but the money is here to stay.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Which deal do you think was worse, without hindsight?

1.  Jacoby Ellsbury 7/$153 mm.

2.  Brandon Nimmo 8/$162 mm.

My guess is they end up similarly.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

My guess is they end up similarly.

I think they could, too.  Nimmo doesn’t have a great track record when it comes to staying healthy.  

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think they could, too.  Nimmo doesn’t have a great track record when it comes to staying healthy.  

And Mullins doesn't have much of a track record of being able to hit consistently, which probably separates reality from Sports Guy's imaginary trade offers for him

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

And Mullins doesn't have much of a track record of being able to hit consistently, which probably separates reality from Sports Guy's imaginary trade offers for him

He has 2 years of being a 4ish WAR player and a reputation as a top 10 CFer in the game who has several years of control left.

So, to be clear..you think Mullins has little value?

Like, if the Os were to trade for him, what prospects in our system do you think is what he is worth.

Edited February 19, 2023 by Sports Guy

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has 2 years of being a 4ish WAR player and a reputation as a top 10 CFer in the game who has several years of control left.

So, to be clear..you think Mullins has little value?

Like, if the Os were to trade for him, what prospects in our system do you think is what he is worth.

5.7 WAR -> 3.8 WAR is a big gap and the wrong trajectory.

Why are you asking about prospects? You have been implying that he could bring a return to upgrade our starting pitching.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

5.7 WAR -> 3.8 WAR is a big gap and the wrong trajectory.

Why are you asking about prospects? You have been implying that he could bring a return to upgrade our starting pitching.

Yes but your lack of reading comprehension is misrepresenting what I am saying and have said all offseason.

I have never said he’s bringing us back an ace or anything remotely like that.

Last year, I said we should trade him for Pablo Lopez. He’s a solid guy but far from an ace.

This year, I have talked about guys like Edward Cabrera, who is a good pitcher right now but is far from a TOR guy..but has TOR upside.

You are the one who is now acting like Mullins doesn’t have a ton of value. So I’m asking what you think his value is.  

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

5.7 WAR -> 3.8 WAR is a big gap and the wrong trajectory.

Why are you asking about prospects? You have been implying that he could bring a return to upgrade our starting pitching.

Do you think he couldn’t?   I certainly think he could.   We can debate how big the upgrade would be.  Darrel Hernaiz brought back Cole Irvin and a prospect.   Luis Arraez brought back Pablo Lopez and a prospect.   Mullins is closer in value to Arraez than he is to Hernaiz.   I assume he could bring back a pitcher somewhere between Irvin and Lopez, or perhaps someone equivalent to Lopez but without the prospect.   That’s where the market seems to be.  

[MarCakes21]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes but your lack of reading comprehension is misrepresenting what I am saying and have said all offseason.

I have never said he’s bringing us back an ace or anything remotely like that.

Last year, I said we should trade him for Pablo Lopez. He’s a solid guy but far from an ace.

This year, I have talked about guys like Edward Cabrera, who is a good pitcher right now but is far from a TOR guy..but has TOR upside.

You are the one who is now acting like Mullins doesn’t have a ton of value. So I’m asking what you think his value is.  

I think a DL Hall+Westburg type of return seems reasonable.  Or DL+Cowser.

[MarCakes21]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Do you think he couldn’t?   I certainly think he could.   We can debate how big the upgrade would be.  Darrel Hernaiz brought back Cole Irvin and a prospect.   Luis Arraez brought back Pablo Lopez and a prospect.   Mullins is closer in value to Arraez than he is to Hernaiz.   I assume he could bring back a pitcher somewhere between Irvin and Lopez, or perhaps someone equivalent to Lopez but without the prospect.   That’s where the market seems to be.  

I personally wouldn't trade Mullins for Lopez.  While Lopez is solid, he's not spectacular, and the postional upside of Mullins for 3 years is more than 2 years of Lopez.

If I could do something like Burnes/Woodruff for Mullins+ (lower tier of top 10 or early teens), that's more where I would be looking.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I personally wouldn't trade Mullins for Lopez.  While Lopez is solid, he's not spectacular, and the postional upside of Mullins for 3 years is more than 2 years of Lopez.

If I could do something like Burnes/Woodruff for Mullins+ (lower tier of top 10 or early teens), that's more where I would be looking.

Personally, I wouldn’t have done Mullins for Lopez either, because of the service time issue.   I was just trying to lllustrate the rough level of return I think we could get for Mullins, based on actual trades from this winter.   The Burnes/Woodruff deal, I’d do, if that actually was possible.  I’m not sure that’s enough though.  Those are very good pitchers.  

[DirtyBird]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Do you think he couldn’t?   I certainly think he could.   We can debate how big the upgrade would be.  Darrel Hernaiz brought back Cole Irvin and a prospect.   Luis Arraez brought back Pablo Lopez and a prospect.   Mullins is closer in value to Arraez than he is to Hernaiz.   I assume he could bring back a pitcher somewhere between Irvin and Lopez, or perhaps someone equivalent to Lopez but without the prospect.   That’s where the market seems to be.  

Really depends on the trade partner. Not many teams out there looking to lose starting pitchers going into a new season.  And how much of an upgrade does someone between Irvin and Lopez provide?

Trade deadline could be a different story. 

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He is overvalued. The Nimmo deal showed that. Lots of proven vet players are overvalued. 

We know teams have been after him. 

We could have easily replaced his speed and defense.  Maybe been able to replace 70% of his offense and done it for very little money.  Likely a step back overall at the position but not a major step back and combine that with a big increase on the mound and you have a better team. 

 

We don't really know what teams have offered. They should be just as aware of his limitations as we are. I know you always think it is easy to scam another team out of surplus value but it's not that easy.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

And Mullins doesn't have much of a track record of being able to hit consistently, which probably separates reality from Sports Guy's imaginary trade offers for him

When Ellsbury was Mullins' age he had his 1 MVP level season and a couple seasons that were worse than Mullins' 2022.  It was a little easier to project Ellsbury because he had a more traditional path from prospect to majors, so that probably played a role in his valuation.  But if you adjust for offensive context and park they are reasonable comparisons.

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We don't really know what teams have offered. They should be just as aware of his limitations as we are. I know you always think it is easy to scam another team out of surplus value but it's not that easy.

He may be limited but he’s still a 3-4 WAR CFer, which is rare. He should still be at that level for another year or 2 and he makes very little money.

Thats highly valued. It’s absurd to insinuate that it’s not.