It seems like another free agent could be signed: who's left that makes sense?

emmett16 · February 22, 2023

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

Is this the "fixed" sentence? Good Lord, what was the original! By what metric are you judging Hays?

Mostly on this data...

Major League Leaderboards » 2022 » Left Fielders » Advanced Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

Major League Leaderboards » 2022 » Left Fielders » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Do you disagree?

I think it's safe to say he was one of the worst LFers in baseball last year.

Edited February 22, 2023 by emmett16

emmett16 · February 22, 2023

For the record. I DO NOT want them to sign Profar. However, I would not be surprised nor upset. I'm a believer in quality depth. Especially when other avenues to improvement are not available (for whatever reason).

Frobby · February 22, 2023

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

Mostly on this data...

…

Do you disagree?

I think it's safe to say he was one of the worst LFers in baseball last year.

I do disagree. First, he’s 12th/18 on the most meaningful metric you ran, wRC+. That’s slightly below average in this group, but “one of the worst” is an overstatement in my view. Second, all the stats you posted were offense-only. By fWAR, he’s 10th of 18.

Plus, this list is only players with enough PA to qualify. Expand it to 400 PA, and he’s 15th/31 in fWAR, 16th in wRC+. Basically middle of the pack.

For me, “one of the worst” would mean one of the 5-6 worst of the 30 teams. And he’s not that. He’s average to maybe just a tick below, based on 2022. I think he has a good shot at being better in 2023, as he was in 2021. He’s still relatively young with room to improve.

emmett16 · February 22, 2023

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

I do disagree. First, he’s 12th/18 on the most meaningful metric you ran, wRC+. That’s slightly below average in this group, but “one of the worst” is an overstatement in my view. Second, all the stats you posted were offense-only. By fWAR, he’s 10th of 18.

Plus, this list is only players with enough PA to qualify. Expand it to 400 PA, and he’s 15th/31 in fWAR, 16th in wRC+. Basically middle of the pack.

For me, “one of the worst” would mean one of the 5-6 worst of the 30 teams. And he’s not that. He’s average to maybe just a tick below, based on 2022. I think he has a good shot at being better in 2023, as he was in 2021. He’s still relatively young with room to improve.

Granted LF in OPACY is a little different now, but LF is an offensive position which I why I ran only those stats. He is in the lower half of all the stats I looked at and often appears in the lower third. I ran the query on 400 ABS to try and get starters only. If you open the query to all OFers vs. LFers, he drops further down the list. He is not in the top half of any offensive stats (I looked at). Maybe 'one of the worst' is a little harsh, but he sure isn't 'one of the best' or even dead average. I don't see anything that suggest an improvement and with his history of bad luck with injuries, I'm not very optimistic for an improvement in the future.

Here is how he compared last year against ALL offensive players with at last 250 ABS.

Statcast Custom Leaderboards | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Moose Milligan · February 22, 2023

17 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Granted LF in OPACY is a little different now, but LF is an offensive position which I why I ran only those stats. He is in the lower half of all the stats I looked at and often appears in the lower third. I ran the query on 400 ABS to try and get starters only. If you open the query to all OFers vs. LFers, he drops further down the list. He is not in the top half of any offensive stats (I looked at). Maybe 'one of the worst' is a little harsh, but he sure isn't 'one of the best' or even dead average. I don't see anything that suggest an improvement and with his history of bad luck with injuries, I'm not very optimistic for an improvement in the future.

Here is how he compared last year against ALL offensive players with at last 250 ABS.

Statcast Custom Leaderboards | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Statcast Custom Leaderboards | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Statcast Custom Leaderboards | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

I'm not a big Hays fan either but two things:

1. Frobby has a mancrush on him. Hays is, like, his favorite player on the current roster. So you're not going to convince him. (Frobby also really liked Jeff Fiorentino, so if you want to razz him a little, this is a good time to remind him of that, too.)

2. I thought your original analysis was pretty solid, and I thought "one of the worst" was a little harsh, too. I think he's pretty average, maybe a bit above or below depending on the week. That's what I don't like about him, the inconsistency swings on offense are either scorching hot or a terrible slump. July and August of last year with a good chunk of September was misery watching him. Swinging at everything, getting frustrated and then swinging harder at everything, practically screwing himself into the ground was just awful. Yeah, all players slump but it looked like his approach to getting out of it was just to swing more and swing harder...there didn't seem to be much of a nuanced approach to taking more pitches or waiting for something in a zone that he knew he could mash. He swings at sliders in the dirt and fastballs at his shoulders, it's terrible to watch.

You can't really move the goalposts to make your point comparing him to all offensive players with at least 250 at bats. You had it right the first time, comping him to other LFers in the game. But the all offensive players with 250 at bats is watering down your argument a bit, I don't care how he performed against Jonathan Schoop, IKF, Elvis Andrus, etc. I mean Hays is 20th on this list and Jeremy Pena is 5 spots higher, there's no question as to who's more valuable right now. I get that it's offense only but in order to properly comp players you need to take their positions into account.

I believe your overall premise is correct but you're watering down your argument against someone when you're trying to stack the numbers in your favor to prop up your point by bringing irrelevant players and at bat totals into the mix.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Moose Milligan

emmett16 · February 22, 2023

20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not a big Hays fan either but two things:

1. Frobby has a mancrush on him. Hays is, like, his favorite player on the current roster. So you're not going to convince him. (Frobby also really liked Jeff Fiorentino, so if you want to razz him a little, this is a good time to remind him of that, too.)

2. I thought your original analysis was pretty solid, and I thought "one of the worst" was a little harsh, too. I think he's pretty average, maybe a bit above or below depending on the week. That's what I don't like about him, the inconsistency swings on offense are either scorching hot or a terrible slump. July and August of last year with a good chunk of September was misery watching him. Swinging at everything, getting frustrated and then swinging harder at everything, practically screwing himself into the ground was just awful. Yeah, all players slump but it looked like his approach to getting out of it was just to swing more and swing harder...there didn't seem to be much of a nuanced approach to taking more pitches or waiting for something in a zone that he knew he could mash. He swings at sliders in the dirt and fastballs at his shoulders, it's terrible to watch.

You can't really move the goalposts to make your point comparing him to all offensive players with at least 250 at bats. You had it right the first time, comping him to other LFers in the game. But the all offensive players with 250 at bats is watering down your argument a bit, I don't care how he performed against Jonathan Schoop, IKF, Elvis Andrus, etc. I mean Hays is 20th on this list and Jeremy Pena is 5 spots higher, there's no question as to who's more valuable right now. I get that it's offense only but in order to properly comp players you need to take their positions into account.

I believe your overall premise is correct but you're watering down your argument against someone when you're trying to stack the numbers in your favor to prop up your point by bringing irrelevant players and at bat totals into the mix.

I'm a Hays fan as well. I love how he plays, I'm a sucker for guys that don't use batting gloves, and he's always been great with kids/fans.

My goal wasn’t to move the goalposts, it was to illustrate how he did offensively vs. the league on batted ball data. That and I also couldn’t figure out how to do position only (or increase AB above 250) on baseball savant lol

Edited February 22, 2023 by emmett16

HakunaSakata · February 22, 2023

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

I do disagree. First, he’s 12th/18 on the most meaningful metric you ran, wRC+. That’s slightly below average in this group, but “one of the worst” is an overstatement in my view. Second, all the stats you posted were offense-only. By fWAR, he’s 10th of 18.

Plus, this list is only players with enough PA to qualify. Expand it to 400 PA, and he’s 15th/31 in fWAR, 16th in wRC+. Basically middle of the pack.

For me, “one of the worst” would mean one of the 5-6 worst of the 30 teams. And he’s not that. He’s average to maybe just a tick below, based on 2022. I think he has a good shot at being better in 2023, as he was in 2021. He’s still relatively young with room to improve.

I think claiming age 27 is still "relatively young" is a bit of a stretch by modern day baseball standards. At least in terms of expecting improvement/upside. Most of the good players break out long before their late 20s. Maybe calling Hays one of the worst was a bit of an exaggeration, but he's certainly not middle of the pack either. In skimming the projected rosters/depth charts for this season I'd say he's probably like the 23rdish ranked LF (offensively) going into the season. And I get that he's a good defender, but I'm not sure that does enough to elevate him into middle of the pack territory.

emmett16 · February 22, 2023

20 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I think claiming age 27 is still "relatively young" is a bit of a stretch by modern day baseball standards. At least in terms of expecting improvement/upside. Most of the good players break out long before their late 20s. Maybe calling Hays one of the worst was a bit of an exaggeration, but he's certainly not middle of the pack either. In skimming the projected rosters/depth charts for this season I'd say he's probably like the 23rdish ranked LF (offensively) going into the season. And I get that he's a good defender, but I'm not sure that does enough to elevate him into middle of the pack territory.

He is a solid fielder but that is weighted by his strong and very accurate arm. He's not getting any faster and at age 27 I think he is what he is right now.

I'll concede that calling him 'one of the worst' was an exaggeration

Edited February 22, 2023 by emmett16

foxfield · February 22, 2023

15 hours ago, Number5 said:

In discussing the still available free agents, no one has brought up the elephant in the room. Available for the major league minimum, but comes with the heaviest of baggage. Too controversial for any team to touch as of now, it seems. I wonder what team will eventually pull the trigger. Somehow, it seems like a very Blue Jays thing to do, IMO.

I would like to see it for 750k.

emmett16 · February 22, 2023

39 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I'm a Hays fan as well. I love how he plays, I'm a sucker for guys that don't use batting gloves, and he's always been great with kids/fans.

My goal wasn’t to move the goalposts, it was to illustrate how he did offensively vs. the league on batted ball data. That and I also couldn’t figure out how to do position only (or increase AB above 250) on baseball savant lol

I figured it out

Statcast Expected wOBA, xBA, xSLG | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

Statcast Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

The more and more I look at these stats, two things come to mind:

1. I sure hope we don't sign Profar

2. I'm very excited to see what Mountcastle can do this year

Edited February 22, 2023 by emmett16

HakunaSakata · February 22, 2023

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He is a solid fielder but that is weighted by his strong and very accurate arm. He's not getting any faster and at age 27 I think he is what he is right now.

I'll concede that calling him 'one of the worst' was an exaggeration

This is an interesting point and I wonder if an argument could be made that it makes his defense even less valuable since a strong arm is typically more of asset/need in rightfield than it is in leftfield. I also 100% agree with your "he is what he is" comment. Maybe a few years ago I thought he had upside, but I just don't see it anymore.

foxfield · February 22, 2023

Just now, HakunaSakata said:

This is an interesting point and I wonder if an argument could be made that it makes his defense even less valuable since a strong arm is typically more of asset/need in rightfield than it is in leftfield. I also 100% agree with your "he is what he is" comment. Maybe a few years ago I thought he had upside, but I just don't see it anymore.

I think it is pretty easy to be down on Hays. When healthy he has produced quite nicely. I think a good part of the second half he should have either been on the IL or bench.

I'd like to see him healthy and playing like the first half last year, and have someone still playing well enough to challenge him.

That is a win win.

I don't disagree with the analysis of @emmett16 per se, but if he is healthy and plays like the first half he deserves to play. If he is not healthy or plays like the second half, we should have someone who can take that spot.

The Orioles should not be happy with Hays '22 season production in LF. But they should not allow the second half to reoccur.

Frobby · February 22, 2023

41 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He is a solid fielder but that is weighted by his strong and very accurate arm. He's not getting any faster and at age 27 I think he is what he is right now.

I'll concede that calling him 'one of the worst' was an exaggeration

The exaggeration part is all I was saying, so we can leave it at that with regard to last year’s performance.

As to the “is what he is” part, I think that remains to be seen. Hays has played two full seasons in the majors. I feel like there are a lot of players who come into their own after that. There used to be an adage that it took about 1500 at bats to learn how to be a major league hitter. That’s about where Hays is, so I’m hopeful that he’ll hit another gear, as Santander sort of did in his age 27 season last year. So I’m not making a prediction here, I just think it’s realistic to hope for it.

Generally speaking, I think too many people (and I don’t mean you) interpret the fact that the average player peaks around age 27 to mean that everyone peaks then. Some peak earlier, some peak later. And though the “average” career arc looks something like a bell curve, individual players often fluctuate significantly up and down from one year to the next. Health plays a role, and so do adjustments that some players are able make and others don’t. So, we will see about Hays (and lots of other players on the team).

emmett16 · February 22, 2023

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The exaggeration part is all I was saying, so we can leave it at that with regard to last year’s performance.

As to the “is what he is” part, I think that remains to be seen. Hays has played two full seasons in the majors. I feel like there are a lot of players who come into their own after that. There used to be an adage that it took about 1500 at bats to learn how to be a major league hitter. That’s about where Hays is, so I’m hopeful that he’ll hit another gear, as Santander sort of did in his age 27 season last year. So I’m not making a prediction here, I just think it’s realistic to hope for it.

Generally speaking, I think too many people (and I don’t mean you) interpret the fact that the average player peaks around age 27 to mean that everyone peaks then. Some peak earlier, some peak later. And though the “average” career arc looks something like a bell curve, individual players often fluctuate significantly up and down from one year to the next. Health plays a role, and so do adjustments that some players are able make and others don’t. So, we will see about Hays (and lots of other players on the team).

As a Hays fan, this is what I've been clinging to. His approach, BB%, & K% give me worry, but I will continue to hold out some hope even if I don't expect it.

btdart20 · February 22, 2023

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The exaggeration part is all I was saying, so we can leave it at that with regard to last year’s performance.

As to the “is what he is” part, I think that remains to be seen. Hays has played two full seasons in the majors. I feel like there are a lot of players who come into their own after that. There used to be an adage that it took about 1500 at bats to learn how to be a major league hitter. That’s about where Hays is, so I’m hopeful that he’ll hit another gear, as Santander sort of did in his age 27 season last year. So I’m not making a prediction here, I just think it’s realistic to hope for it.

Generally speaking, I think too many people (and I don’t mean you) interpret the fact that the average player peaks around age 27 to mean that everyone peaks then. Some peak earlier, some peak later. And though the “average” career arc looks something like a bell curve, individual players often fluctuate significantly up and down from one year to the next. Health plays a role, and so do adjustments that some players are able make and others don’t. So, we will see about Hays (and lots of other players on the team).

I agree with this. He's shown stretches of what's possible as well as stretches of injuries and replaceable performance. 2022 wasn't kind to him either.

He basically traded some HRs for 2Bs in 2022. Which makes sense given the Wall. I'd be fine with his .413 SLG from 2022 if it came with his .279/.329 BA/OBP from 2020. Not necessarily game changer, but that would add value toward the bottom of the line-up. And he's a solid fit for our bigger LF.

His approach definitely got more aggressive in 2022. Swing$, O-swing%, First pitch swing% were all at career highs. He needs to hang with Gunnar/Adley more and less with Mateo and Mountcastle!

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