Fangraphs top 100

[Moose Milligan]

I think of all the guys in the system, Mayo is the one I'm most interested in headed into 2023.  If he has a great season and really cements himself as a top 20 guy that would be huge.

[btdart20]

Is 6 on the list the low water mark for these rankings?  Even on the expanded 112 list.  Westburg, Norby, Cowser, Kjerstad, and even Povich were on various other lists IIRC.

[emmett16]

22 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I noticed that too. I thought at first they must be applying high bust rates to all the SPs, but Grayson's bust % was still higher than any of the other SPs near him on the list. 

I wonder if the gap between his and Hall's is partially because they're classifying Hall as a reliever. 

Or lat strain is the new torn labrum. 

[Going Underground]

32 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed!  But still SP Pfaadt at #16 is older than Grayson.  

But with a name  like Pfaadt ,he has to be goood 

Edited February 22, 2023 by Going Underground

[Frobby]

From Fangraphs chat:

“Grayson v Pfaadt: More about liking Pfaadt a lot, though has something to do with the direction the arrow is pointing for both. Pfaadt picked up spin across the board, Grayson lost two ticks of velo and 200rpm across the board, Pfaadt's delivery and athleticism more typical for a starter than Grayson.”

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

One of the interesting features of this list is the probability charts for each player.  For example, Gunnar’s distribution looks like this:

Bust 5%
40/45 7%
50/55 33%
60/65 30%
70+ 25%

...

I remember seeing something similar for Matt Wieters when he burst onto the scene. The takeaway was something like a 50% chance of being a hall of famer. I'm guessing that means they put his 70+ probability at 50%. Either way, that's a tough level to project towards. 

[Big Al]

I love how we are consistently getting 6 on these lists, but they aren’t always the same 6. We have a pool of 11 or 12 from which to choose.  Some publications are probably wary of making their list too Oriole heavy.  

[Moose Milligan]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

From Fangraphs chat:

“Grayson v Pfaadt: More about liking Pfaadt a lot, though has something to do with the direction the arrow is pointing for both. Pfaadt picked up spin across the board, Grayson lost two ticks of velo and 200rpm across the board, Pfaadt's delivery and athleticism more typical for a starter than Grayson.”

It begins.

[Mooreisbetter27]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

From Fangraphs chat:

“Grayson v Pfaadt: More about liking Pfaadt a lot, though has something to do with the direction the arrow is pointing for both. Pfaadt picked up spin across the board, Grayson lost two ticks of velo and 200rpm across the board, Pfaadt's delivery and athleticism more typical for a starter than Grayson.”

Would be curious if this was after the injury that they're talking about because I don't seem to recall his velo being down pre injury.  

[clutch2113]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

One of the interesting features of this list is the probability charts for each player.  For example, Gunnar’s distribution looks like this:

Bust 5%
40/45 7%
50/55 33%
60/65 30%
70+ 25%

You gotta love that.   The bust chances on the others are way higher:

Holliday 22%
Rodriguez 40%
Mayo 32%
Hall 25%
Ortiz 22%

The Rodriguez bust rate makes zero sense to me.  Higher than Hall’s?  No way.   I’ll have to dig around, but I think Fangraphs did these charts last year too  and Rodriguez had a way lower bust rate   .

 

They have Hall as a Reliever, Not a Starter.  So, some of that 'Bust' percentage may be accounting for the fact it is easier to stick as a reliever.

Rodriguez has a 40% bust chance as a starter, while Hall has (in their view) already busted as a starter and now has a 25% bust chance as a reliever.

That's totally speculation on my part - just how I read it.

[interloper]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think of all the guys in the system, Mayo is the one I'm most interested in headed into 2023.  If he has a great season and really cements himself as a top 20 guy that would be huge.

Everyone seems to be expecting that he'll pop this year. I hope so! 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Would be curious if this was after the injury that they're talking about because I don't seem to recall his velo being down pre injury.  

Was going to say the same thing.

Why are all of these publications rating GRod based on how he looked after the injury?

[BrendanPlutschak]

So excited to watch Mayo this year. As great as our system is, the one thing that we've been missing throughout the entire process in my opinion is a legit "middle of the order bat". A 40 HR guy. Adley is not a cleanup hitter. There's a chance Gunnar is, but I don't think Gunnar is that 40 homerun cleanup hitter. The 2 guys who have that best opportunity in my opinion are Mayo and Kjerstad. So very excited to see how Mayo's bat progresses this year. 

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Would be curious if this was after the injury that they're talking about because I don't seem to recall his velo being down pre injury.  

Yes.  After the injury is when he lost 200rpm and 2 ticks.  I think anyone that saw him would say he didn't' look quite the same.  With that said, I don't think many people are worried.  BUT if you are going to do a write up and I guess it's fair to go with the most updated info.  I think GRod is going to be extremely productive this year out of the gate. 

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, BrendanPlutschak said:

So excited to watch Mayo this year. As great as our system is, the one thing that we've been missing throughout the entire process in my opinion is a legit "middle of the order bat". A 40 HR guy. Adley is not a cleanup hitter. There's a chance Gunnar is, but I don't think Gunnar is that 40 homerun cleanup hitter. The 2 guys who have that best opportunity in my opinion are Mayo and Kjerstad. So very excited to see how Mayo's bat progresses this year. 

Krjerstad, Stowes, and Mayo have the chance to be a MOO bat.  Mayo's power tools shine brighter than anyone else's, for sure.