Jackson Holliday 2023

[Frobby]

“Notably, the homer wasn't even Holliday's best-struck ball of the game, even with a 98.3 mph exit velocity. In his final time up, after grounding out and walking, he barreled a ball 408 feet off the top of the fence in center for a double -- his hardest Triple-A hit at 102.5 mph.”

https://www.milb.com/news/jackson-holliday-hits-first-homer-with-norfolk-tides

Check put the video of the double that is in the article - the ball literally hit the very top of the fence and popped high in the air before landing in play.  Another quarter-inch and it’s a homer.  

[bobmc]

20 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Sorry man, no helmet can contain his flow.

Yeah and remembering when Gman cut his locks!  

[Just Regular]

I think he's still pulling at the bit.     There's another couple weeks including the showcase AAA championship to give evidence and Heston Kjerstad just took an AB in a meaningful leverage situation.

He's doing the "hitting polite" thing at a new level - AVG and SLG down but K/BB ratio has shifted stronger.     Can he smash a few more?     We've got Aaron Hicks for a sharp eye.

[scarey1999]

3-4, all singles, plus a BB in today’s game.  

Across 13 AAA games and 53 AB, his BB/K ratio is 11/8.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 9/15/2023 at 10:24 AM, Frobby said:

“Notably, the homer wasn't even Holliday's best-struck ball of the game, even with a 98.3 mph exit velocity. In his final time up, after grounding out and walking, he barreled a ball 408 feet off the top of the fence in center for a double -- his hardest Triple-A hit at 102.5 mph.”

https://www.milb.com/news/jackson-holliday-hits-first-homer-with-norfolk-tides

Check put the video of the double that is in the article - the ball literally hit the very top of the fence and popped high in the air before landing in play.  Another quarter-inch and it’s a homer.  

Warning track power!

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, scarey1999 said:

3-4, all singles, plus a BB in today’s game.  

Across 13 AAA games and 53 AB, his BB/K ratio is 11/8.

.264/.391/.377 now in AAA.  .310/.453/.429 over the last 10 games.  I’ll be pretty surprised if he doesn’t finish the season over .300/.400/.400 in AAA.

[Just Regular]

Here is the AAA postseason calendar.    It looks like Durham is in the lead to be 2nd half champion, as more and more of baseball features BAL-TB competition.

Date	Event
Sunday, Sept. 24	Final Day of the Championship Season
Monday, Sept. 25	Travel Day (OFF)
Tuesday, Sept. 26	Game 1, League Championship Series (at First-Half Champion)
Wednesday, Sept. 27	Game 2, League Championship Series (at First-Half Champion)
Thursday, Sept. 28	Game 3 (if necessary), League Championship Series (at First-Half Champion)
Friday, Sept. 29	Travel Day (OFF)
Saturday, Sept. 30	Single-Game, 2023 Triple-A National Championship Game (Las Vegas, NV)

[btdart20]

55 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Here is the AAA postseason calendar.    It looks like Durham is in the lead to be 2nd half champion, as more and more of baseball features BAL-TB competition.

Date	Event
Sunday, Sept. 24	Final Day of the Championship Season
Monday, Sept. 25	Travel Day (OFF)
Tuesday, Sept. 26	Game 1, League Championship Series (at First-Half Champion)
Wednesday, Sept. 27	Game 2, League Championship Series (at First-Half Champion)
Thursday, Sept. 28	Game 3 (if necessary), League Championship Series (at First-Half Champion)
Friday, Sept. 29	Travel Day (OFF)
Saturday, Sept. 30	Single-Game, 2023 Triple-A National Championship Game (Las Vegas, NV)

Awesome!  How cool would it be if Baltimore/Tampa were 1-2 in the AL East for the next 5-10 years?!

Start time and broadcast partner set for 2023 Triple-A Championship Game (milb.com)

[Ridgway22]

Timing of Jax Holliday Major League callup......

To play the bonus draft pick game in 2024 under the "Prospect Promotion Incentive" system, he would have to break camp on opening day and stay with the O's the entire season. 

Last year, the Mariners went with Julio Rodriguez as their center fielder for the whole year. As AL Rookie of the Year, Seattle picked up the bonus pick, 29th overall—and about $2.5 million in bonus pool money. (Remember Gunnar was #42 overall, so this is not a trivial pick)

Looks like we'll be the beneficiary of a similar bonus this year with Gunnar.

So, IF, and only IF "exploiting" this PPI system is in the cards for Jax, he's going to have to make the opening day roster, OR stay in minors next year OR get called up next year and stay below the rookie limits to try and game the system for 2025.

I can see how there might be some un-intended consequences in this "incentive" system when it comes to highly touted prospects, i.e. not calling up a kid during the season, or keeping his playing time down to keep rookie status for the next season.

 

[btdart20]

I caught the last few innings of the Norfolk game last night.  There was a routine grounder to Holliday where he made a loopy throw.  No need for anything more than that and I didn't think anything about it.  But the Buffalo announcer started speaking about Holliday's throwing during the series.  Some off-line, not crisp, making the 1B work, and said he had an error too.  I didn't see any of the prior games but it wasn't flattering.  Maybe @banks703is onto something...

Hopefully, Elias and crew aren't biased by being 'their' guy.  I don't think Elias will be, but that's a tough blinder to remove.

[Fiver6565]

15 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I caught the last few innings of the Norfolk game last night.  There was a routine grounder to Holliday where he made a loopy throw.  No need for anything more than that and I didn't think anything about it.  But the Buffalo announcer started speaking about Holliday's throwing during the series.  Some off-line, not crisp, making the 1B work, and said he had an error too.  I didn't see any of the prior games but it wasn't flattering.  Maybe @banks703is onto something...

Hopefully, Elias and crew aren't biased by being 'their' guy.  I don't think Elias will be, but that's a tough blinder to remove.

Pretty much the entire baseball world has him as the #1 or 2 prospect in the sport.  Are they all wearing blinders also?

[EERinthe804]

On 9/14/2023 at 2:32 PM, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I doubt it unless there's a player on the 40 man who will need to be moved to the 60 day IL at the end of the season. Assuming Kjerstad is coming up for Mountcastle the Orioles already have to make a move to the 40 man to add Kjerstad.

I wouldn't complain if Holliday got called up, I just don't see it happening.

Kjerstad came up for Vavra and is playoff eligible

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Pretty much the entire baseball world has him as the #1 or 2 prospect in the sport.  Are they all wearing blinders also?

No, but that's not my point either.  My point was simply about the struggles of being objective when decision-making when you view something like:

 

Not trying to make a big deal either way.  Holliday is #1 because of his hit tool and the ability to stick at SS.  He's a legit top tier prospect.  Just like Gunnar was.  And team context/construct is important.  

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Ridgway22 said:

Timing of Jax Holliday Major League callup......

To play the bonus draft pick game in 2024 under the "Prospect Promotion Incentive" system, he would have to break camp on opening day and stay with the O's the entire season. 

Last year, the Mariners went with Julio Rodriguez as their center fielder for the whole year. As AL Rookie of the Year, Seattle picked up the bonus pick, 29th overall—and about $2.5 million in bonus pool money. (Remember Gunnar was #42 overall, so this is not a trivial pick)

Looks like we'll be the beneficiary of a similar bonus this year with Gunnar.

So, IF, and only IF "exploiting" this PPI system is in the cards for Jax, he's going to have to make the opening day roster, OR stay in minors next year OR get called up next year and stay below the rookie limits to try and game the system for 2025.

I can see how there might be some un-intended consequences in this "incentive" system when it comes to highly touted prospects, i.e. not calling up a kid during the season, or keeping his playing time down to keep rookie status for the next season.

 

I’m going to keep this simple.  If, at the he end of the spring, the O’s believe Holliday is ready to be one of our best 13 position players from day one, then he should make the team.  If they don’t believe that, then he should start the year in the minors.  The odds of him winning ROY probably aren’t that high, and certainly won’t be if the O’s don’t think he’s ready to be one of our best 13.   So, no reason to force him onto the OD roster just to take a shot at the ROY bonus pick. 

[Just Regular]

In 2024, Holliday would have to outplay the best of Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo to be Rookie of the Year; in 2025, he would not.

Perhaps he could, but isn't it more likely he would win '25 RoY than '24 RoY with longer investment in his life mastery of the game of baseball, and isn't it all just about maximizing?     

First Division problems - its possible BAL no longer "needs" everyone to hold a Top 6 in the league position.

If Kjerstad or Cowser look strong enough in spring, I believe one of them will get featured the first month or two out of the gate.     The '24 Orioles look like they should generate a nice amount of counting stats for everyone.