Jackson Holliday 2023

[TheWall]

4 hours ago, sevastras said:

85% he is on the opening day roster. I agree he may be destined for second base but it is a weird thing. He doesn’t have the arm for third, which is a natural move off SS, he is good enough for SS but Gunnar is pretty darn good. You don’t typically see a second baseman hit as well as Jackson, but I think he sees at the mlb level Gunnar is going to be hard to displace. 

You're way overshooting at 85%. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, sevastras said:

85% he is on the opening day roster. I agree he may be destined for second base but it is a weird thing. He doesn’t have the arm for third, which is a natural move off SS, he is good enough for SS but Gunnar is pretty darn good. You don’t typically see a second baseman hit as well as Jackson, but I think he sees at the mlb level Gunnar is going to be hard to displace. 

Having a great hitting 2B is a huge advantage.  It’s a weak spot on most teams.  In the AL this year, it’s the second worst hitting position, at .703 OPS (SS is at .702).   Imagine having Gunnar and Holliday at those two spots.  

I disagree with your estimated 85% chance that he’s on the OD roster, though.  I just think they’ll want him to polish his game in AAA for a while.  But, I think they’ll let him compete in spring training and decide then, rather than predetermining anything now.  I’m certainly not going to count him out. 
 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, TheWall said:

You're way overshooting at 85%. 

Agreed.   I’d say it’s about 10%.   

[sevastras]

48 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Agreed.   I’d say it’s about 10%.   

I would bet a bushel of crabs he is on the opening days roster barring injury.  Quite frankly , I would bet $5k he is again barring injury. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, sevastras said:

I would bet a bushel of crabs he is on the opening days roster barring injury.  Quite frankly , I would bet $5k he is again barring injury. 

That’s great but it doesn’t change my opinion.  I guess we’ll see.

[Just Regular]

Hernaiz is perhaps OAK '24's shot on goal for the Rookie of the Year bonus pick.    Some of that competition is an Org choosing to invest 650 PA in one team leader to chase that prize.

[Bemorewins]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Having a great hitting 2B is a huge advantage.  It’s a weak spot on most teams.  In the AL this year, it’s the second worst hitting position, at .703 OPS (SS is at .702).   Imagine having Gunnar and Holliday at those two spots.  

I disagree with your estimated 85% chance that he’s on the OD roster, though.  I just think they’ll want him to polish his game in AAA for a while.  But, I think they’ll let him compete in spring training and decide then, rather than predetermining anything now.  I’m certainly not going to count him out. 
 

I agree with you in that I believe that the prudent course to take with him is to make him earn it next year in Spring Training through competition.

With that said, he’s only 19 and still better (IMO much better and much more talented) than anyone who we can put at 2B next year. I don’t think any other candidate is going to beat him out in a pure competition. Plus, it stands to reason that he will be even better next year as he takes the offseason to do serious strength training and as he continues to grow into his man strength/adult body.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree with you in that I believe that the prudent course to take with him is to make him earn it next year in Spring Training through competition.

With that said, he’s only 19 and still better (IMO much better and much more talented) than anyone who we can put at 2B next year. I don’t think any other candidate is going to beat him out in a pure competition. Plus, it stands to reason that he will be even better next year as he takes the offseason to do serious strength training and as he continues to grow into his man strength/adult body.

Talent is not all that matters.  The experience needed to realize that talent also is important.  Nobody doubts that 22-year old Jackson Holliday would better than 26-year old Joey Ortiz.  But will the 20-year old Holliday, who’s played a handful of AAA games, be ready to be better right away?  That is the question.   And he’ll get a chance to answer that question next spring.  

[TheWall]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Talent is not all that matters.  The experience needed to realize that talent also is important.  Nobody doubts that 22-year old Jackson Holliday would better than 26-year old Joey Ortiz.  But will the 20-year old Holliday, who’s played a handful of AAA games, be ready to be better right away?  That is the question.   And he’ll get a chance to answer that question next spring.  

Even if he looks ready they could easily send him down to AAA for a few weeks to try and gain an extra year of control. It might not end up working out, but that extra year could be absurdly assuming he lives up to the hype. It's not like we don't have plenty of options to hold down 2B and as you said it's totally possible that Westburg or Ortiz could be better in '24. 

[emmett16]

They overpaid for their LHH 2B last year.  They can upgrade over 2B 2023 stats internally and save $$ with Holiday.  Barring injury or a disastrous performance in ST, I don't see how he isn't the starting 2B on opening day effectively replacing Frazier's role on the team.  

[TheWall]

12 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

They overpaid for their LHH 2B last year.  They can upgrade over 2B 2023 stats internally and save $$ with Holiday.  Barring injury or a disastrous performance in ST, I don't see how he isn't the starting 2B on opening day effectively replacing Frazier's role on the team.  

Unless I've missed something about the current ability to manipulate service time - you don't see how the Os might value an extra season of Holliday at 25-26 over a few weeks 20? 

Edited September 27, 2023 by TheWall

[emmett16]

7 minutes ago, TheWall said:

Unless I've missed something about the current ability to manipulate service time - you don't see how the Os might value an extra season of Holliday at 25-26 over a few weeks 20? 

He can always go down if he isn't performing, and you can gain your extra year.  They have Gunnar for 5 more years and Adley for 4 more.  I think the calculous starts to change ever so slightly next year.  

[TheWall]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

He can always go down if he isn't performing, and you can gain your extra year.  They have Gunnar for 5 more years and Adley for 4 more.  I think the calculous starts to change ever so slightly next year.  

I'd expect Holliday to perform well enough to stick with the team. I'm not sure if he'll be ready out of camp, but I think a year of control during his prime is way more valuable than 2 weeks of games when he's figuring things out at 20. I know everyone hates service time manipulation, but our owner is way too cheap for us to ignore the benefits.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I think the calculous starts to change ever so slightly next year.  

That's the crux.  Decision making in 2023 was different than 2022.  How much changes from 2023 to 2024?  If we're still 'lifting off' then there's no reason to keep Holliday down (assuming they deem him ready) like they did with Gunnar.  If we're at cruising altitude and in the 'perennial contender' final stage of the rebuild, then that extra year of control may outweigh the few weeks of a contender (then suck it up if he is in the ROY running).  

[Bemorewins]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Talent is not all that matters.  The experience needed to realize that talent also is important.  Nobody doubts that 22-year old Jackson Holliday would better than 26-year old Joey Ortiz.  But will the 20-year old Holliday, who’s played a handful of AAA games, be ready to be better right away?  That is the question.   And he’ll get a chance to answer that question next spring.  

I guess we shall see. But I would almost all of the time lean towards the "special" talent.