Heston Kjerstad 2023

[Ridgway22]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, that's me.  I wanted Martin.

Crazy how things have turned around and I'm very pleased to have been wrong.

I was in the same camp. So glad ME is in charge and not, well, me. I, also, am thankful to have been incorrect in my fandom assessment of the situation.

Looking at the embarrassment of riches that is the O's pipeline, I will now smugly sip a quality adult beverage, shift slightly in my lounge chair for comfort, and feign indecision between the Lobster and Filet for dinner. Because, of course, I'll get both.

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Ridgway22 said:

I was in the same camp. So glad ME is in charge and not, well, me. I, also, am thankful to have been incorrect in my fandom assessment of the situation.

Looking at the embarrassment of riches that is the O's pipeline, I will now smugly sip a quality adult beverage, shift slightly in my lounge chair for comfort, and feign indecision between the Lobster and Filet for dinner. Because, of course, I'll get both.

I knew Martin was struggling but I just looked and DAMN, is it bad.  He might make the majors someday in a Tim Beckham type way because whichever organization he's in will want to see if they can tap that potential but it's a very strong possibility that he never sees a big league roster.

It's also a possibility that guys like Kjerstad or some of our other prospects don't pan out but at least we can be confident that they'll have a shot.  

[e16bball]

4 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

But like I mentioned above, it's astounding that the front office somehow found what might go down as the best college hitter AND the best prep bat in the same draft. Oh, and throwing in Jordan Westburg in between. In a year that must have been a nightmare to scout players. A year after having found the best college hitter and the best prep bat in Adley/Gunnar (and throwing in Joey Ortiz). Did they do it again with Holliday and Fabian?

We're witnessing some next-level scouting from this front office. If they can continue to find hitters up and down the draft, I'm totally fine with continuing to pass on pitching.

I guess this sort of raises the interesting question of whether their primary gift is that they are extraordinary at identifying the top talents — or extraordinary at developing young hitting talent.

In other words, were Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo destined to be the top hitters from that draft based on their intrinsic talent, which the Orioles accurately identified in a way that other teams could not? Or were their odds of success similar to other similarly situated prospects, and they just had the good fortune to get tossed into the Orioles’ mystical development machine? Would they have had the same success if drafted by another organization?

Probably very difficult to say for sure. As a fan, I think the important part is that, for whatever reason, they do seem to be extraordinary at this process with hitters, from start to finish. It has been some fun watching it all unfold. But it would still be interesting to know how it would have worked out in a parallel universe where we took Martin and Kjerstad/Mayo went elsewhere — would Martin be the “special” talent and those guys the forgotten footnotes?

[sevastras]

On 7/8/2023 at 2:08 AM, Frobby said:

Yes, mostly.   I think by now most posters have realized that Elias and his staff know what they’re doing when it comes to the draft.   

Edit: you can read the OH reaction to the Kjerstad pick here.   It’s pretty hysterical, in both senses of that word.  
 

I always tell my wife I am a genius, but now you all get to hear it.

“Thank you for the video. I generally “scout” high school players and really hadn’t watched that much of him but he really has a sweet swing. His outfield play isn’t amazing but much better than we have marched out their since Markakis wasn’t resigned. Man that is a great swing!  I know I have said this before, but I was told 15-20 years ago that when you draft, you don’t want the 16 year old with a full beard because he is already peaking maturely but a 20 year old that can’t grow a beard has more to grow into. Not every gm goes with that, but this kid looks like a kid and has room to grow. Also with that logic, they haven’t peaked performance wise.  Physically I can see him turning into a Manny Ramirez body type(let’s hope he has that kind of career without whatever). Also why I like Rutschman, baby face with room to mature into a projectable body type. He reminds me of a Buster Posey at the same age. 
Great job on this pick. I was never sold on Martin or Torkleson “

Edited July 9, 2023 by sevastras

[e16bball]

5 hours ago, sevastras said:

I know I have said this before, but I was told 15-20 years ago that when you draft, you don’t want the 16 year old with a full beard because he is already peaking maturely but a 20 year old that can’t grow a beard has more to grow into.

This had to be the #1 scouting indicator in their decision to take Jackson Holliday.

[Mooreisbetter27]

16 hours ago, Ridgway22 said:

Just for fun, went through the KJ draft pick thread. I thought I remembered much more gnashing of teeth and wailing at the moon, but still a few gems:

"I think passing on Martin will be one of those decisions that haunts the Orioles for years to come."

"I think years from now we will lament not taking Austin Martin at #2. Frankly I was yelling at the screen in anger."

"I'm pissed. 10 years of seeing Martin light us up while we've got an outfield with 40 speed."

"Poor walk numbers, unexceptional speed and little defensive value."

"My initial reaction is that I do not like the pick with who else was available."

"Guys rise and fall all the time but there were better projected players between #2 and where Kjerstad was expected to be taken."

"I get that Martin wanted above slot, however there were several better projected players at #2 that they could have signed. You can't convince me otherwise."

"I’d rather have Martin than Kjerstad/Bitsko."

"He's a slow power bat that has trouble with plate discipline and okay to good fielding. I can not look at him and not immediately make a parallel to Roughned Odor."

And finally...

"I’m not going to lie — I pretty much hate this pick. I don’t like the ratio of upside to downside."

 

TBH, I had bought into the Austin Martin as generational talent story, and wanted him. Thought I had posted as such, but could not find record of same.

The angst in this topic, in retrospect, is absolutely hilarious. 

For the record, I wanted Martin and was upset they picked Kjerstad. I didn’t post in the topic. 

It even dove into wishing the Orioles could draft or develop or do anything right. 

Obviously I know this was during a dark period, but it’s still funny to read now 3 years later. 

[panick]

11 hours ago, e16bball said:

I guess this sort of raises the interesting question of whether their primary gift is that they are extraordinary at identifying the top talents — or extraordinary at developing young hitting talent.

In other words, were Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo destined to be the top hitters from that draft based on their intrinsic talent, which the Orioles accurately identified in a way that other teams could not? Or were their odds of success similar to other similarly situated prospects, and they just had the good fortune to get tossed into the Orioles’ mystical development machine? Would they have had the same success if drafted by another organization?

Probably very difficult to say for sure. As a fan, I think the important part is that, for whatever reason, they do seem to be extraordinary at this process with hitters, from start to finish. It has been some fun watching it all unfold. But it would still be interesting to know how it would have worked out in a parallel universe where we took Martin and Kjerstad/Mayo went elsewhere — would Martin be the “special” talent and those guys the forgotten footnotes?

Who cares as long as they keep doing it!

[btdart20]

11 hours ago, e16bball said:

I guess this sort of raises the interesting question of whether their primary gift is that they are extraordinary at identifying the top talents — or extraordinary at developing young hitting talent.

In other words, were Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo destined to be the top hitters from that draft based on their intrinsic talent, which the Orioles accurately identified in a way that other teams could not? Or were their odds of success similar to other similarly situated prospects, and they just had the good fortune to get tossed into the Orioles’ mystical development machine? Would they have had the same success if drafted by another organization?

Probably very difficult to say for sure. As a fan, I think the important part is that, for whatever reason, they do seem to be extraordinary at this process with hitters, from start to finish. It has been some fun watching it all unfold. But it would still be interesting to know how it would have worked out in a parallel universe where we took Martin and Kjerstad/Mayo went elsewhere — would Martin be the “special” talent and those guys the forgotten footnotes?

Both/and.  They target skillset they think they can develop well.  Which factor they are better at (scouting or developing) might not be as important as having those two areas play into each others’ strengths.

[btdart20]

On 7/8/2023 at 4:08 AM, Frobby said:

Yes, mostly.   I think by now most posters have realized that Elias and his staff know what they’re doing when it comes to the draft.   

Edit: you can read the OH reaction to the Kjerstad pick here.   It’s pretty hysterical, in both senses of that word.  
 

Yeah that thread is hysterical.  It’s not the disagreement but the absolutism.  Have we/OHers learned anything?  

I was between Meyer and Hancock at the time.  Braves and Dodgers but did well in their picks too.

[ShoelesJoe]

Two more hits for Kjerstad tonight. His current batting line at AAA Norfolk is .327 / .421 / .584 / 1.005, which is better than what he put up at AA Bowie. Can't wait till we have a lineup with Henderson, Mayo, and Kjerstad back to back to back every night. That will be a power trio to rival any in the game. 

[Just Regular]

AAA K% about 75th-80th percentile among guys with the 120+ PA he's now attained.

There's some similarities among all of them off the Elias Official lefty bat assembly line, but for me he's going to be different than Gunnar or Cowser and not watch so many pitches go by.

The only International League bat striking out less than him who also has 1.000 OPS is the by now very Crash Davis Miguel Andujar, who in his one big year in the show blended >600 PA and <100 K, for a .290, 25/100 kind of line.

[Sports Guy]

3-5 with 2 doubles and 3 RBIs today.

[emmett16]

2 Doubles today.  Batting .344 OPS 1.005.

[baltfan]

Nice if they need him. Otherwise, probably won’t be up until next year.  This team is going to be crazy. 

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Nice if they need him. Otherwise, probably won’t be up until next year.  This team is going to be crazy. 

As far as lineup goes, if/when we add Kjerstad, Mayo, and Holliday to what we have now, we could have an offense on par or better than the Braves this time last year.

However, we have a very thin margin of error as it relates to pitching talent. One or 2 of the wrong injuries next year and we may not be as good of a team as we are now, even with the better offense.