Westburg's EVs

[Tony-OH]

The Orioles missed the playoffs last year by three games. How many games did playing a below average second baseman cost? How many games did they cost by keeping a well below average back up catcher all year in Chirinos cost? 

That's two players they spent less than $2 million on but were kept on the roster all year. The Orioles gave 870 PAs to Odor, Chirinos, Aguilar, Owings and Bemboom last year. They only released Owings and actually resigned Bemboom this offseason as their first priority. 

So while they Orioles have shown the ability to draft and develop players, their evaluation process and decisions to keep running guys out there who aren't performing is not infallible. 

ANYWAYS. At the end of the day, I believe Westburg will prove Elias to be a genius (he drafted him) and silly (for blocking him with Frazier). 

Let's hope he's on the team and playing everyday sooner than later. 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Pretty good. 
 

so is my fantasy just that our front office is competent? Because any competent front office should understand the sunk cost fallacy. 

Understanding it’s a sunk cost is one thing.  There are countless examples of sunk costs that got tons of playing time.

[RarityFlaherty]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Understanding it’s a sunk cost is one thing.  There are countless examples of sunk costs that got tons of playing time.

Deciding when they are a sunk cost is definitely subjective, but when a player is on a one year deal it’s a lot easier to just call it a sunk cost and move on. I also don’t think what they did with players last year is indicative of what they plan to do this year. We didn’t consider ourselves legit contenders, so there was no reason to dig into the cupboard of prospects last year and waste any service time.
 

I’m not sure about Vavra, I would have liked to see more of him at second last year, but it seemed like they liked Odor’s glove over Vavra, and they probably figured they might as well stick with the veteran leadership that got them there. That still doesn’t make me feel like Frazier is going to keep getting playing time if he’s that bad. The situations are just very different. 
 

And I can pretty much guarantee (barring injury), that we’ll see Westburg in the majors this year. We’ll also likely see Ortiz later in the year too, if he’s playing well. Starting off the season by giving Frazier a shot just allows us to slow play the prospects and manipulate their service time if we feel the need. We’ll see what happens, but a smart GM would just dump him after a couple months if he’s still not performing. 

[Jammer7]

Westburg has hit pretty well in Spring Training, absolutely. Cool. So is Franchy Cordero, Josh Lester and Ryan O’Hearn. So did Jake Fox, and many others, in the past. lol

Don’t get me wrong, I want him to get opportunities too. There are many times when he reminds me of Cal Ripken with his body language and mannerisms. When I watch him, he just seems to move like him. Weird how he makes me think of Cal, but now I cannot unsee it. 

How many walks does Westburg have this Spring? Two, to go with 12 K’s. SSS and all. Is he ready? Maybe, maybe not. A lot of growing pains for rookies like him. Elias bought an asset in Frazier with hopes he’ll turn things around and probably move him at the deadline, at least that makes some sense to me. Frazier is the better 2B defensively, no question about that. With all of the young pitchers, they obviously value that defense. Urias is a tick below average at 2B for me if used there everyday. Frazier is known as a great mentor to these young guys. And that matters to them too, even if it’s a big joke around here. 

With all of the talk around here about Westburg’s arm being below average, I’ve been watching the limited games we have gotten a chance to see. I see a tick above average arm myself. I have not seen him make many throws from the different angles an elite middle infielder would need to be able to make. I don’t love him at 2B, better on the left side for me, probably a 3B. A little less athletic than I expected as far as quickness and lateral movement, but he moves well enough for a bigger guy. Kinda like Cal that way. He’s a grinder who doesn’t make things look easy, but he’s a ball player.

If Elias moves Mateo to Atlanta for a good package, Urias to Houston for a good prospect, Frazier goes wherever, and Hyde puts Westburg at 3B and Henderson at SS with Ortiz at 2B, that would make me happy. There will be some growing pains for sure. The pitchers will have to get some extra outs at times, but so be it. I just don’t think that now is quite the time for that yet. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Elias bought an asset in Frazier with hopes he’ll turn things around and probably move him at the deadline, 

Frazier is known as a great mentor to these young guys.

 

I don't see where you get probably from.

Does Frazier have that reputation?

I googled "Is Adam Frazier known as a good mentor" and I'm not seeing a ton.

There is this ....interesting...piece.

https://athletesinaction.org/articles/the-best-thing-i-learned-from-adam-frazier/

I now know more about his feeling about lust than I ever wanted to. 

Quote

“It gets to the point where I have to unfollow this on social media, or unfollow that or decline a friend request,” Adam said. “There is a lot of temptation out there, and it’s not easy sometimes.” The Mississippi State product said he depends on a core group of men on the team who assist each other in their Christian walk.

“There are several of us who look out for each other,” he added. “If they notice something might go wrong, they speak up and keep us in line. We all do that for each other.”

Can you help me out with these sources?  I hope it's more than just some guys talking up a teammate.

[eddie83]

5 hours ago, 24fps said:

What else can you do after the fact but hope for the best outcome?  But process matters.  Elias and Sig have said as much and I doubt that anyone else in a decision making capacity with the Orioles would dispute that.  So I need the process on this one to be explained to me.  Meanwhile, are Urias and Vavra still looking for something to do?  Maybe Urias could go over to the right side and stand there with his Gold Glove and something good might happen.

-Club had a ton of health last year. Will that continue this year? 

-team is trying to win this year. Adds depth and lefty mix

-raises the floor at the postion. 

[eddie83]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If he was making 3M or less, I would agree with you.

But 8M, a number that represents 12% of our payroll?  He’s getting significant chances.

And I’ll say this again..he may bounce back with the bat a little and his glove may be solid and he may be a 2 WAR guy this year. Personally, his performance isn’t at the top or even near the top of my list of why I don’t want him.

It’s just a horrible move and thought process across the board. It makes zero sense and I can’t see anything to justify the move, even if he plays better than expected.

12% of nothing is still nothing. 

[24fps]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

-Club had a ton of health last year. Will that continue this year? 

-team is trying to win this year. Adds depth and lefty mix

-raises the floor at the postion. 

I think it's reasonable to question whether the team will be as healthy as it was last year, but I don't see a particularly worrisome impact on the middle IF if that happened.

-If the team was trying to win this year then why weren't they more active in addressing the starting rotation?  Everything I see indicates that 2024 is the year the O's get serious - whatever the hell that means with the current ownership.  I'll be paying close attention to what takes place around the trade deadline later in the season and maybe that will shed some light on why Adam Frazier is in Baltimore.

-Putting Gunnar Henderson at 2B raises the floor by a whole lot if Odor in 2022 is your baseline and Urias has a GG at 3B after all.  Putting Urias or Vavra at 2B is also a perfectly justifiably gamble - moreso if $8 mil matters as it should to the Orioles.  Then there's Westburg, Norby and Ortiz.  Certainly one of them has a higher floor than Adam Frazier.  There were a lot of choices that were rejected for some reason.

 

[Sports Guy]

The clubs health is something that will likely be worse in 2023 vs 2022. That’s still not a reason to sign Frazier since we have several MI options.

 

[waroriole]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The clubs health is something that will likely be worse in 2023 vs 2022. That’s still not a reason to sign Frazier since we have several MI options.

 

There is no reason to sign Frazier other than you think he’s going to be your best option at 2B. And if that’s the case, it’s some pretty poor analysis. Right now, that 8M would look a lot better having been spent on the bullpen this off-season. 

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, waroriole said:

There is no reason to sign Frazier other than you think he’s going to be your best option at 2B. And if that’s the case, it’s some pretty poor analysis. Right now, that 8M would look a lot better having been spent on the bullpen this off-season. 

Well, just think of the total money in general.

McCann, Frazier, OHearn, Gibson and Givens.

Even if you don’t mind any/some of these moves, is this the best way to spend almost $27M?
 

This is almost half the active payroll that you are spending on guys that are likely to be pretty mediocre overall.

[waroriole]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, just think of the total money in general.

McCann, Frazier, OHearn, Gibson and Givens.

Even if you don’t mind any/some of these moves, is this the best way to spend almost $27M?
 

This is almost half the active payroll that you are spending on guys that are likely to be pretty mediocre overall.

Yeah their resource allocation this off-season was very disappointing. I don’t mind Gibson or Givens, because it’s a need. But $13M, almost half of what we spent, between Frazier and McCann seems like a waste. That’s not just Angelos changing the budget mid stride. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Yeah their resource allocation this off-season was very disappointing. I don’t mind Gibson or Givens, because it’s a need. But $13M, almost half of what we spent, between Frazier and McCann seems like a waste. That’s not just Angelos changing the budget mid stride. 

Yep..the only thing Angelos can be blamed for is that it’s obvious that he isn’t allowing multi year deals where the money is much.

Elias said they had multiple multi year deals out to pitchers but clearly they weren’t where they needed to be.

That is in JA for not upping the budget for that.

It’s unfortunate because I would trade all of them for Eovaldi right now and it would cost less money and they are likely to spend similar money in a poor way next year too, so it’s not like the money spent on him next year will be bad compared to what they likely do.

 

And that’s even knowing Eovaldi could easily blow up in their faces.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see where you get probably from.

Does Frazier have that reputation?

I googled "Is Adam Frazier known as a good mentor" and I'm not seeing a ton.

There is this ....interesting...piece.

https://athletesinaction.org/articles/the-best-thing-i-learned-from-adam-frazier/

I now know more about his feeling about lust than I ever wanted to. 

Can you help me out with these sources?  I hope it's more than just some guys talking up a teammate.

More veteranosity BS to me. You don't spend $8 million on veteranosity. 

[Jammer7]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

More veteranosity BS to me. You don't spend $8 million on veteranosity. 

Well, its a real thing, Tony. Call it what you want. I'm not saying Frazier is a great expenditure, as that remains to be seen. But, very successful and smart baseball executives and managers believe this to be a valuable commodity. 

@Can_of_cornFrazier's clubhouse presence/stature has been widely reported. I do not see the need to provide any links to anything as it is easy to find it. Do a better search, its easy to find. I listen to so many pods, read so many things, I cannot possibly remember them all. I don't have the time or see the need to look for it. Disregard this post and any other posts you choose.

I actually spoke with an unnamed baseball executive, an Assistant GM, recently, on various topics. We got to speaking about the Orioles underwhelming offseason. He made it a point to mention Frazier, McCann and Gibson as having qualities of value inside the clubhouse. He went on to say that winning teams have more than talent, and that they have learned how to win. That entails doing their business a certain way, professionally, each day. From their preparation in the offseason to how they handle their day-to-day activities on and off the field. Coaches can only do so much. Veteran players have great value beyond their numbers on the back of the baseball card. 

Fans cannot measure the impact of that easily, and I get why you are so critical of it. I am curious what Elias sees in Frazier's ability to justify $8 million myself. I was quite surprised at that figure. I also want to see Westburg, Ortiz and Norby get opportunities. Elias is not quite ready to commit to them, for whatever reason. But there is a process for rookies, and they have adjustments to make to be impactful on a winning team.

As a fan, I just want this team to win, and do so for a long time. I think back to some comments from Dustin Pedroia in an interview several years ago at the end of his career. He was asked about how he developed his routine and how he became a leader on the field and in the clubhouse. He said that when he came into the Red Sox roster, he was shown the right way to go about his business and how to play winning baseball at the ML level. He said he improved greatly by simply having a good routine. I do not remember who his veteran leader was, but it was not someone who was a household name for average fans. He credited that former player with building that winning culture that lead to their WS championships. I want that.

Ideally, we want players like Frank Robinson, who was largely credited with the same kind of impact on the 1966 Orioles. We want guys with All Star credentials who are also veteran leaders. Those guys are very expensive for a cheap ownership group at this time. At some point, I expect them to bring in someone of that caliber. Until then, you get Rougned Odors and Adam Fraziers.

As a side note, how many walk offs did Odor have last year? Was it four, or five? I have no argument on Chirinos and Bemboom after the first few weeks. They were a step up from Severino, but anemic production. Chirinos' defense was not so great either. The Aguilar signing was awful. It was what it was, and your point is well made.