Appears Grayson pitched his way to AAA to start the year

[HakunaSakata]

10 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

G-Rod gave up 12 ER and 3 HR in 15.1 IP this spring while Alcantara gave up 1 ER and 0 HR in 13.1 IP.

Yes, that's a drastic run differential, but isn't spring training more about experimenting and ironing out the kinks than it is about stats/numbers? I mean, a few weeks ago Greinke hinted that he intentionally pitched poorly one game so that he get runners on base to work on his pick off move for god's sake.

[spleen1015]

7 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Yes, that's a drastic run differential, but isn't spring training more about experimenting and ironing out the kinks than it is about stats/numbers? I mean, a few weeks ago Greinke hinted that he intentionally pitched poorly one game so that he get runners on base to work on his pick off move for god's sake.

Do you really think for a second that G-Rod falls into the same category? Dude has never pitched in the majors and he's out there experimenting?

[Tony-OH]

All I will say after watching Rodriguez is a couple of times this spring, yet he has great ST+ and Command+ numbers, tells me more about the validity of those numbers then anything else.

At the end of the day, he's been a disappointment this spring so it makes sense to give him some more time to find that command, the command he really hasn't had since returning from his oblique injury. 

His struggles, DL's injury that he arrived with, and the bullpen injuries have been the disappointments for the Orioles this spring. 

Do I feel better or worse about the Orioles upcoming season after this spring? I'd say slightly worse unfortunately. Hopefully he will refind soon.

[HakunaSakata]

15 minutes ago, deward said:

This article maybe deserves its own thread, but since it's primarily about the decision to send Grayson down, I figured it fit here. I don't have a problem with the call to send him down to start the year, based on how he looked this spring, but I generally agree with the criticisms laid out in the column. 

Good read and I think I'm of the same mind set. I would have liked to see him make the OD roster, but I'm not up in arms about him starting the season at AAA. If anyone other than Gibson, Irvin or Bradish struggles in their first few outings, I want to see Rodriguez promoted sooner rather than later though. And if that doesn't happen I think the service time manipulation part of this becomes more of a justifable critique. 

[HakunaSakata]

4 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

Do you really think for a second that G-Rod falls into the same category? Dude has never pitched in the majors and he's out there experimenting?

I think regardless of track record (rookie or veteran) all spring traing numbers should be taken with a giant grain of salt. For pitchers, the underlying things like velocity, etc. are much more important to me than the conventional stats. The only thing that really concerned me about Rodriguez's spring were his walks. Like I said in another post, I'm not up in arms about them demoting him, but I'm also not sure it was the right move either. 

[interloper]

"Will get him back ASAP". If all the SP are healthy and pitch well, though, how do they make it work? The only thing I can think of is another bullpen injury could tempt them to move Wells to the 'pen. But I think they kind of view Wells in a similar way to Rodriguez and Hall - a good young starter who they'd rather not put in the bullpen. 

There's going to have to be a few things that go wrong on the ML team for Grayson to actually get the call. 

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

All I will say after watching Rodriguez is a couple of times this spring, yet he has great ST+ and Command+ numbers, tells me more about the validity of those numbers then anything else.

At the end of the day, he's been a disappointment this spring so it makes sense to give him some more time to find that command, the command he really hasn't had since returning from his oblique injury. 

His struggles, DL's injury that he arrived with, and the bullpen injuries have been the disappointments for the Orioles this spring. 

Do I feel better or worse about the Orioles upcoming season after this spring? I'd say slightly worse unfortunately. Hopefully he will refind soon.

I have to believe this is a short term setback for GRod.   And I feel good that the O's have 5 starters that are better that him at the moment and that GRod, Hall, Means, Voth and Watkins are all there to help.

[interloper]

Just now, wildcard said:

I have to believe this is a short term setback for GRod.   And I feel good that the O's have 5 starters that are better that him at the moment and that GRod, Hall, Means, Voth and Watkins are all there to help.

That's the thing is it's not like it's some scrap-heap scrub taking his rotation spot. It's Tyler Wells, who is young and good. He doesn't have the ceiling, sure, but he's a guy we found and finished developing and he goes out there and competes well.

If they optioned Grayson in favor of Watkins or Voth, or some guy they claimed on waivers, or even Zimmermann, then I'd take a lot more issue with it than I do. 

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

All I will say after watching Rodriguez is a couple of times this spring, yet he has great ST+ and Command+ numbers, tells me more about the validity of those numbers then anything else.

At the end of the day, he's been a disappointment this spring so it makes sense to give him some more time to find that command, the command he really hasn't had since returning from his oblique injury. 

Honestly, I don’t know why anyone trusts Eno Sarris’s artificial stats.   They don’t seem to bear much relationship to actual results.  

And I completely agree with your diagnosis.   I haven’t seen Grayson pitch as often as you have, but I did see him in person and on TV at Bowie in 2021, on TV pre-injury with Norfolk in 2022, in person in one of his rehab starts at Bowie later in 2022, and in person and on TV this spring.  And based on that, it’s very obvious that his command - especially of his curve and slider - hasn’t been anywhere close to pre-injury levels.   So I don’t give a damn about Eno Sarris’s made up stats.   

I have zero doubt that the O’s did the right thing in sending him to Norfolk to start the year.  Hopefully he gets his full arsenal back together.  If he does, he’ll be up soon enough.  

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Well... it's pretty obvious that he's gotta man up and earn it. 

I am conflicted b/c obviously he's got the talent to do it and there's a good chance he would outperform Wells. But in a world where merit is fading into the background, it makes sense to see Elias giving him some public "tough love." 

 

[Emory Eagle]

When I watched GRod in spring I saw a typical talented but struggling young pitcher, not someone ready to dominate MLB.  Poor command, lack of composure with men on base, constantly getting into FB counts and not able to effectively “pitch backwards” in those situations.  Too many pitches, too many base runners and too many hard hit balls.  All that said, it was a very small sample size, and I would’ve been fine if he were on the OD roster.  I hope he dominates AAA and breaks down the door to the ML clubhouse ASAP.

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, Emory Eagle said:

When I watched GRod in spring I saw a typical talented but struggling young pitcher, not someone ready to dominate MLB.  Poor command, lack of composure with men on base, constantly getting into FB counts and not able to effectively “pitch backwards” in those situations.  Too many pitches, too many base runners and too many hard hit balls.  All that said, it was a very small sample size, and I would’ve been fine if he were on the OD roster.  I hope he dominates AAA and breaks down the door to the ML clubhouse ASAP.

Good summary of what his spring was like and I agree. My only concern, that's not who he was pre oblique injury. He did all of those things so what has changed? Why has his command been so far off since then? He clearly was pressing, but what happened to that confidence?

Nobody wants to say it, but you know I will, but it was disappointing to see him regress so much and fail in his first real chance at the big leagues. He basically pitched his was off the team. Heck, a bad outing or two would not have hurt him, but to have a lack of command and feel of his breaking pitches still is something that's disappointing to all. I'm sure he's frustrated too. While the fastball velocity was special, and the change could still be very good, he reminded my of early career Kevin Gausman. 

Rodriguez has all the talent needed to be a very good major league starter for a long time, but it may take a bit longer than any of us had hoped and until I see that stuff, composure, and command come back to pre oblique injury, I'll have a little concern. It should come back. Why it's still a struggle after a normal offseason and spring is beyond anyone right now.

We just have to hope it will return and he will settle back into a groove in AAA and be here by May or late April. Either way, for a guy who looked more than ready last May, this was an extremely disappointing spring.

[HakunaSakata]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, I don’t know why anyone trusts Eno Sarris’s artificial stats.   They don’t seem to bear much relationship to actual results.  

And I completely agree with your diagnosis.   I haven’t seen Grayson pitch as often as you have, but I did see him in person and on TV at Bowie in 2021, on TV pre-injury with Norfolk in 2022, in person in one of his rehab starts at Bowie later in 2022, and in person and on TV this spring.  And based on that, it’s very obvious that his command - especially of his curve and slider - hasn’t been anywhere close to pre-injury levels.   So I don’t give a damn about Eno Sarris’s made up stats.   

I have zero doubt that the O’s did the right thing in sending him to Norfolk to start the year.  Hopefully he gets his full arsenal back together.  If he does, he’ll be up soon enough.  

 

At the risk of poking the bear, are you not a believer in sabermetrics? Because I guarantee you that Sig Medal and the analysts that work for him are most definitely looking at things like Stuff+ when evaluating pitchers. 

[Moose Milligan]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, I don’t know why anyone trusts Eno Sarris’s artificial stats.   They don’t seem to bear much relationship to actual results.  

 

 

 

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

  Because I guarantee you that Sig Medal and the analysts that work for him are most definitely looking at things like Stuff+ when evaluating pitchers. 

I'm with Frobbecino on this one.  Looks like Grayson's Stuff+ and Command+ stuff'd and commanded him 3 dingers in 15 innings, 12 earned runs and a bus ticket to Norfolk. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

At the risk of poking the bear, are you not a believer in sabermetrics? Because I guarantee you that Sig Medal and the analysts that work for him are most definitely looking at things like Stuff+ when evaluating pitchers. 

Of course I believe in sabermetrics.  I just don’t believe in Eno Sarris’s sabermetrics.  And I guarantee you that Sig and his staff have better metrics than anything Sarris concocts.  And whatever Sig’s said didn’t put Grayson on the major league roster.