Dylan Beavers 2023

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, Gurgi said:

Anyone find it odd he has not hit a homerun in AA? 

Maybe they are working on making contact above everything?

I hadn’t noticed, to tell you the truth.  But with 10 XBH in 26 games, I’m not concerned.  Just one of those fluky things.  

[scarey1999]

I’m sorry but I have to say it…

Beavers pelts his first dam AA home run this eve. 

[baltfan]

I said at the beginning of the season I thought he would be top 3 in the system by the end of the year.  Definitely wrong on that, but he is probably our most underrated guy at this point. 

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I said at the beginning of the season I thought he would be top 3 in the system by the end of the year.  Definitely wrong on that, but he is probably our most underrated guy at this point. 

He’s in the conversation with Cowser and Kjerstad as far as I’m concerned.   

 

 

 

 

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, RZNJ said:

He’s in the conversation with Cowser and Kjerstad as far as I’m concerned.   

Sure, if the conversation goes like this: “Beavers is not as good as Cowser or Kjerstad.”

I’m sort of jesting, but mostly not.  I consider Beavers to be a tier below the other two, though he could turn out to be as good or better.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Sure, if the conversation goes like this: “Beavers is not as good as Cowser or Kjerstad.”

I’m sort of jesting, but mostly not.  I consider Beavers to be a tier below the other two, though he could turn out to be as good or better.

I think he hasn’t accomplished what they have.    He played most of his first full season at 21.   I think his first full season was a great success.   For someone considered toolsy with the hit tool being the big question I think Beavers is on his way to me being right up there with the other two.  

[Just Regular]

Broadly Mike Elias' team's recent results are only confirmation bias reinforcing esteem for his pool dollar allocations.

Scoreboard is Cowser/Kjerstad $5mm, and Beavers $2mm.

I will more readily adjust if there is a College-High School split...it is a known known 12th graders (or especially 16 year old Dominicans!) you are playing for upside, so its easier to embrace that Gunnar-Mayo-Basallo are becoming "better" than Cowser/Kjerstad.

Jackson Holliday at 2B I am mostly only wondering is it going to be more Roberto Alomar flavored or Robinson Cano flavored, and perhaps what he is going to need to work on until next August.    I suppose Jeff McNeil flavored in a Bad Case type scenario.

I still wonder if non-millionaire Joey Ortiz means anything more to Mike Elias than fellow non-millionaire Kyle Stowers.

[Yossarian]

It's going to be interesting to see how the careers of Beavers and Max Wagner turn out.   Evan Carter (Texas) was available as a high schooler when both of these guys were drafted.   Carter had already made it to the big leagues and early indicatiobs show he was more than ready.   Will either Beavers or Wagner ever get to the bigs?

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Yossarian said:

It's going to be interesting to see how the careers of Beavers and Max Wagner turn out.   Evan Carter (Texas) was available as a high schooler when both of these guys were drafted.   Carter had already made it to the big leagues and early indicatiobs show he was more than ready.   Will either Beavers or Wagner ever get to the bigs?

Carter was drafted in 2020 and Texas was basically the only team who were serious about him.  He wasn’t heavily scouted by virtually everyone else.   Beavers and Wagner were drafted in 2022.

[Yossarian]

56 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Carter was drafted in 2020 and Texas was basically the only team who were serious about him.  He wasn’t heavily scouted by virtually everyone else.   Beavers and Wagner were drafted in 2022.

I stand corrected.   I had two pages open showing draft results and lost track of which one I was looking (and assumed Carter was a 2022 pick).  This was an interesting analysis of Carter, however:

 

Second Round: Evan Carter (50th pick)

Texas' run on high schoolers began with Carter, whose selection at No. 50 was one of the Draft's biggest surprises early on. The Tennessee native was not listed among MLB.com's Top-200 rankings but, like Foscue, Fagg is excited to find a talent he believes could far exceed projections.

"Evan was a guy we felt we had to take if he was still available," he said. "Other teams wanted him. We knew that for a fact. He's a young, athletic, middle-of-the-order type who can do it all. Everyone in our Draft room saw this kid and we were all on the same page. If Evan had the opportunity to play a full season this spring, I don't think we would have had a chance to take him at No. 50."

Standing 6-foot-4 and 190 pounds, the lefty-swinging Carter was named Super 22 Player of the Year, conference Pitcher of the Year and first-team All-State honors as a junior at Elizabethton High School. He hit .324 with four home runs and 27 RBIs while going 10-2 with a 1.34 ERA and six complete games.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Yossarian said:

I stand corrected.   I had two pages open showing draft results and lost track of which one I was looking (and assumed Carter was a 2022 pick).  This was an interesting analysis of Carter, however:

 

Second Round: Evan Carter (50th pick)

Texas' run on high schoolers began with Carter, whose selection at No. 50 was one of the Draft's biggest surprises early on. The Tennessee native was not listed among MLB.com's Top-200 rankings but, like Foscue, Fagg is excited to find a talent he believes could far exceed projections.

"Evan was a guy we felt we had to take if he was still available," he said. "Other teams wanted him. We knew that for a fact. He's a young, athletic, middle-of-the-order type who can do it all. Everyone in our Draft room saw this kid and we were all on the same page. If Evan had the opportunity to play a full season this spring, I don't think we would have had a chance to take him at No. 50."

Standing 6-foot-4 and 190 pounds, the lefty-swinging Carter was named Super 22 Player of the Year, conference Pitcher of the Year and first-team All-State honors as a junior at Elizabethton High School. He hit .324 with four home runs and 27 RBIs while going 10-2 with a 1.34 ERA and six complete games.

Congrats to the Rangers on a great pick.  Funny, but a .324 average for a HS is not impressive at all.   I think Holliday was over .600.   Just goes to show you.  I read a blurb from draft night where Dan O’Dowd said Carter should go to college and was not ready for pro ball.  Haha.

[Yossarian]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Congrats to the Rangers on a great pick.  Funny, but a .324 average for a HS is not impressive at all.   I think Holliday was over .600.   Just goes to show you.  I read a blurb from draft night where Dan O’Dowd said Carter should go to college and was not ready for pro ball.  Haha.

Maybe he was drafted as a pitcher?  Whatever they saw, the Rangers did well with the pick. 

[LookinUp]

On 9/9/2023 at 12:15 PM, Frobby said:

Sure, if the conversation goes like this: “Beavers is not as good as Cowser or Kjerstad.”

I’m sort of jesting, but mostly not.  I consider Beavers to be a tier below the other two, though he could turn out to be as good or better.

I'm just seeing this oldish post, but figured I'd comment since my comment relates to a separate Jud Fabian discussion.

Beavers k'd 26% of the time this year. Cowser k'd 33% of his AAA ABs this year. 

I'm really questioning Cowser at this point. It's not just about his major league data. He has real contact issues. And without a real plus defensive tool, I'm beginning to think he's closer to Stowers as a prospect than he is to Kjerstad. That said, I'm probably the #1 believer in the importance of a good offseason, so I'm far from giving up.

On my personal top 10 list, I think Beavers might be above Cowser at this point.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm just seeing this oldish post, but figured I'd comment since my comment relates to a separate Jud Fabian discussion.

Beavers k'd 26% of the time this year. Cowser k'd 33% of his AAA ABs this year. 

I'm really questioning Cowser at this point. It's not just about his major league data. He has real contact issues. And without a real plus defensive tool, I'm beginning to think he's closer to Stowers as a prospect than he is to Kjerstad. That said, I'm probably the #1 believer in the importance of a good offseason, so I'm far from giving up.

On my personal top 10 list, I think Beavers might be above Cowser at this point.

Fangraphs has Beavers just ahead of Cowser.  You need to use plate appearances, not AB’s when calculating strikeout rate.  Cowser was around 27% at AAA.  Beavers was just a tad over 20% at AA.   The strikeout rate is a concern with Cowser but the bigger concern was the damage per contact at the ML level.   He’s a very productive AAA hitter.   He needs to translate that in the majors.  

[Hank Scorpio]

10 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm just seeing this oldish post, but figured I'd comment since my comment relates to a separate Jud Fabian discussion.

Beavers k'd 26% of the time this year. Cowser k'd 33% of his AAA ABs this year. 

I'm really questioning Cowser at this point. It's not just about his major league data. He has real contact issues. And without a real plus defensive tool, I'm beginning to think he's closer to Stowers as a prospect than he is to Kjerstad. That said, I'm probably the #1 believer in the importance of a good offseason, so I'm far from giving up.

On my personal top 10 list, I think Beavers might be above Cowser at this point.

I'm not 100% sure about this, but here's my theory. Likely it varies a little bit from player to player. 

I think about Gunnar early in the season watching a lot of borderline pitches and striking out a lot. Then, it's as if they unleashed him a little bit or something and he started attacking more of those borderline pitches. Sure, he still K'd a lot but he didn't really take off until after he started being more aggressive, around the end of May/beginning of June. 

I'm hoping that sort of thing happens with Cowser, and I think it's possible. Defensively, he will probably be average-ish in a corner OF position.