Bautista 2023

[Just Regular]

I think last night qualifies for high profile, special Saves as some of us had observed that a reliever Cy candidacy needs some crazy playoff race moments.      I think he also needs to have a good game or two in the Houston rematch or that will be a long shot candidacy nit to pick.     The final Rays series will also be a place to make hay.

Gerrit faces off with Eury Perez today in a fun matchup.     Its his if his ERA stays in the 2.75 range, so in terms of this being a fun thing last 7 weeks, the favorite needs a couple clunkers.

[Three Run Homer]

I've said it before and I've said it again:  Felix Bautista is a devastating weapon in extra innings, because getting strikeouts is especially important when there is a ghost runner at second.  

[allquixotic]

Bautista needs to give up on his splitter a bit sooner if he can't find the release point or whatever mechanical aspect causes him to spike it or overthrow it consistently in about 50% of his appearances. It seems like, once he takes the mound, he either has the pitch, or he doesn't. Continuing to throw the pitch is just going to elevate the pitch count and put runners on base via the walk or hit by pitch.

I'm OK with batters having an easier time knowing what's coming because he removed a pitch from his arsenal after realizing he can't throw it. His remaining pitches are good enough to get strikeouts and saves still. But when a pitch is an uncompetitive ball 95% of the time, you probably need to give up on it and go back to the basics.

He's probably out there with determination, thinking to himself that he just needs to tweak his delivery just a little bit to get that splitter to work, and tries it over and over again trying to "find it". I admire the determination, but he's giving an opposing team a chance to steal a game from us in the 9th every time he does that. And sometimes you're going to give up a grand slam or a bases-clearing triple in that situation.

He's been clutch for us all season. It's hard to suggest messing with success, but you know: "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results." Perhaps, just maybe, if Felix gives up on a pitch that doesn't work for him sooner in an appearance, his ERA would still be below 1.

[Uli2001]

3 minutes ago, allquixotic said:

Bautista needs to give up on his splitter a bit sooner if he can't find the release point or whatever mechanical aspect causes him to spike it or overthrow it consistently in about 50% of his appearances. It seems like, once he takes the mound, he either has the pitch, or he doesn't. Continuing to throw the pitch is just going to elevate the pitch count and put runners on base via the walk or hit by pitch.

I'm OK with batters having an easier time knowing what's coming because he removed a pitch from his arsenal after realizing he can't throw it. His remaining pitches are good enough to get strikeouts and saves still. But when a pitch is an uncompetitive ball 95% of the time, you probably need to give up on it and go back to the basics.

He's probably out there with determination, thinking to himself that he just needs to tweak his delivery just a little bit to get that splitter to work, and tries it over and over again trying to "find it". I admire the determination, but he's giving an opposing team a chance to steal a game from us in the 9th every time he does that. And sometimes you're going to give up a grand slam or a bases-clearing triple in that situation.

He's been clutch for us all season. It's hard to suggest messing with success, but you know: "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results." Perhaps, just maybe, if Felix gives up on a pitch that doesn't work for him sooner in an appearance, his ERA would still be below 1.

I only see him throw the 4-seamer and the splitter. What are his other pitches? If he only throws fastballs, he's going to get hit.

[O's84]

1 minute ago, Uli2001 said:

I only see him throw the 4-seamer and the splitter. What are his other pitches? If he only throws fastballs, he's going to get hit.

He has a slider.

[Uli2001]

By the way, not disagreeing with you that his splitter can go from devastating to ineffective from one night to the next. But just pointing out that he can't just throw fastballs. He has to keep throwing the splitter, if only to keep them guessing a bit.

[Uli2001]

Just now, O's84 said:

He has a slider.

Does he throw it regularly? I don't see it.

[O's84]

Just now, Uli2001 said:

Does he throw it regularly? I don't see it.

No, it's his least effective pitch.  He did throw one tonight though.

[Malike]

His fastball command was bad tonight, that's what happened.

[allquixotic]

39 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

I only see him throw the 4-seamer and the splitter. What are his other pitches? If he only throws fastballs, he's going to get hit.

Maybe, maybe not. Obviously the best thing would be for him to develop consistency with the splitter, because when it's working, he's one of the most effective pitchers in the game. But I didn't suggest that because, more than likely, the type of work he needs to fix a pitch will require the off-season and spring training to work on. You don't start tinkering with your closer's mechanics down the stretch when your team is holding on to first place by a couple of games.

It'd also require the off-season for him to develop a new pitch he could throw more consistently as an alternative to the splitter. That does just leave the fastball and the slider unfortunately, but hey. The best pitches in baseball are ones that are unhittable even when they know what's coming.

Maybe it's too soon to mention him again, but remember Britton? We had him last time we were a contender. In 2016, Britton threw a sinker 91.7% of the time, a slider 7.9% of the time, and a 4-seam fastball 0.4% of the time. Basically, he was a 1-pitch pitcher. But that one pitch was so effective that he could get ground balls with it very consistently. With Mariano Rivera, it was the cutter about 90% of the time -- and nobody could square up his cutter either.

Bautista is shaping up to be a 1-pitch pitcher, with a devastating fastball that can strike guys out because nobody can hit it, and a splitter that makes the fastball way more effective when it works.... but when the splitter doesn't work, it's a guaranteed non-competitive pitch. I'd rather him fix it, but realistically, I don't expect that he can make such a major change to his routine down the stretch.

On the other hand, subtracting a pitch requires zero skill. Just don't throw it.

Edited August 15, 2023 by allquixotic

[e16bball]

26 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

I only see him throw the 4-seamer and the splitter. What are his other pitches? If he only throws fastballs, he's going to get hit.

He throws a slider, exclusively to righties, mostly as a get-me-over change-of-pace pitch. He throws it about 9% of the time to RHH — three of them to Tatis tonight, for example. 

It’s pretty effective as a surprise pitch. They basically don’t even swing at it. Of the 46 he’s thrown this year, only 1 has been put into play. It has a 63.6% whiff rate, which I think means they’ve swung at it 11 times and come up empty 7 of those times. He’s walked 2 on sliders (including Tatis tonight), and he has yet to punch anyone out with it.

I think it’s best left as his third pitch.

[e16bball]

His splitter is arguably the most effective pitch in baseball. It tops the list for whiff rate, K-rate, xWOBA, etc. 

He’s not finding it currently. Looks ugly. But he’s human if he takes the splitter out of the arsenal. Still good — but not the unhittable monster we see when he’s got both the fastball and the splitter clicking. 

You can’t really tell Thor to just ditch the hammer already, or Zeus to bag the thunderbolts. The fastball/splitter working off of each other is Felix’s superpower, and the goal between now and October needs to be to get that feel for the splitter back. You can’t just put it on the shelf because it’s been wonky of late. He needs it to shut down the best teams.

[Hallas]

50 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

Does he throw it regularly? I don't see it.

He's thrown it more recently.  It was a waste pitch last year and early this year.  It's kind of passable now as an MLB caliber pitch.

[SilverRocket]

He threw 6 splitters today. 4 were uncompetitive, 1 was a nice pitch to Kim and 1 induced the DP to end the game, though that was a hard-hit ball. But on the ground. It was a well-below-average day for the pitch, but I don't know if the game goes better if he threw stone 0 of them, and they start sitting on the fastball more.

The splitters that aren't spiked are generally great. On the year, he's given up 8 singles and the 1 Judge homer on it, so the risk is that it's a wasted pitch or wild pitch more than it is that it gets hit. I don't think he can just shelve it. There've been a couple games where the early splitters looked bad but he ended up finding it.

[e16bball]

Interesting trend with Felix in terms of catcher ERA. Not a major believer in that particular metric, but I do think some catchers click better with certain pitchers. In both of his seasons, he’s been substantially better with Adley than with the secondary catcher:

Adley (2022): 39.2 IP, 1.82 ERA, 53 Ks, 14 BBs, .427 OPS

Chirinos (2022): 20.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 29 Ks, 8 BBs, .732 OPS

 

Adley (2023): 43.1 IP, 0.83 ERA, 82 Ks, 19 BBs, .448 OPS

McCann (2023): 11.0 IP, 4.91 ERA, 18 Ks, 7 BBs, .675 OPS

 

Combined, that comes out to a 1.30 ERA with Adley and a 3.98 ERA with McCann/Chirinos. He’s given up more ERs (14) in 31.2 IP with the secondary guys than he’s allowed in 83 IP with Adley (12). 

If you want an additional head-scratcher, he’s been absolutely dominant with Bemboom across the two seasons. He’s thrown 8.1 innings to Bemboom, and he has yet to give up an ER (with 14 Ks to 1 BB).

Not sure if there’s some commonality in how Adley/Bemboom call pitches or give targets as compared to the other guys?