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Bautista 2023


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57 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

Did you see Rizzo do the double take when he whiffed on that last pitch.  He was like what was that.  What the hell just happened.  

I know it’s silly to point this out because just about every hitter struggles with this but Rizzo has trouble with elite velocity up in the zone. The strikeout pitch was PERFECTLY located. Kudos to Felix for coming back strong the day after a heartbreaker. The heater was dirty last night. 
 

I’m glad that he was able to pitch more carefully to Judge. That is essentially what I was advocating. @HandsomeQuack’s comment on pitchers not liking being instructed to pitch around guys is certainly fair. As a competitor I want to an opportunity to put my best against your best but it’s a strength to know when someone has your number. That’s what all of the analytics are supposed to do. Aaron Judge right now is as close to Barry Bonds as there has been since Bonds retired. Elite-Elite power, Elite-walk rate, Elite-Contact. There isn’t another hitter in the league right now who I would want less to face than Aaron Judge, especially in a game against the O’s. 
 

Last night Palmer was essentially spewing all of the points that I made yesterday about Judge. The dude owns the O’s. Sometimes guys just have your number. Frank Thomas owned Mike Mussina. Sometimes you just tip your cap and try to get the next guy. I’m super happy that it worked out for them. 

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I haven't read this whole thread so not sure this was discussed.  My biggest issue with Bautista is the predictability in the pitch calling when he is on the mound.  This started last year and finally after Judge hit that homer things changed which was good to see last night.  

It was almost as predictable as the sun coming up, once he gets 2 strikes on a batter the splitter was coming.  Now when he has his good one you can probably tell a batter its coming and it would be difficult to hit.  In the last month though that pitch has been pretty erratic for him.  You get a good hitter in there with a 2 strike count and likely sitting on the split finger which ends up middle middle it's not surprising at all the ball gets crushed.

Bautista throws 100+ miles an hour.  You have to make sure the batters aren't eliminating the fastball in their mind because that will make even a poorly executed splitter more affective.  

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1 hour ago, banks703 said:

I know it’s silly to point this out because just about every hitter struggles with this but Rizzo has trouble with elite velocity up in the zone. The strikeout pitch was PERFECTLY located. Kudos to Felix for coming back strong the day after a heartbreaker. The heater was dirty last night. 
 

I’m glad that he was able to pitch more carefully to Judge. That is essentially what I was advocating. @HandsomeQuack’s comment on pitchers not liking being instructed to pitch around guys is certainly fair. As a competitor I want to an opportunity to put my best against your best but it’s a strength to know when someone has your number. That’s what all of the analytics are supposed to do. Aaron Judge right now is as close to Barry Bonds as there has been since Bonds retired. Elite-Elite power, Elite-walk rate, Elite-Contact. There isn’t another hitter in the league right now who I would want less to face than Aaron Judge, especially in a game against the O’s. 
 

Last night Palmer was essentially spewing all of the points that I made yesterday about Judge. The dude owns the O’s. Sometimes guys just have your number. Frank Thomas owned Mike Mussina. Sometimes you just tip your cap and try to get the next guy. I’m super happy that it worked out for them. 

Bautista could have allowed another HR and it would have had the same effect on win probability as a walk there. Very different situation. I am glad Judge didn't hit another HR but you should be trying to get the out there aside from ego purposes. A pseudo-intentional walk there only reinforced in both their minds that Judge owns the matchup. Why not go for the out? Because you are afraid of getting beat for a meaningless run? I actually don't like that Felix went all FB since that also shows Judge he is afraid to throw the splitter. 

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Almost two months in, Felix's BB rate is basically double what it was last year. He's survived it because his K rate is also up 50%— 18 K/9, which is crazy. 

Took a look, and his 47.2 K% is the second highest in MLB for pitchers with 10+ innings, behind Alexis Diaz. His 16% BB rate is 23rd in the league for 10+ innings.

K-BB% scholar @Just Regularmay be interested to know this places him 10th among MLB pitchers in K-BB% for that innings minimum. Yennier Cano is 6th. Jose Alvarado is 1st. Injured elbow guys Springs and deGrom are 2nd and 3rd. 

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Today was the first time in a long while where every splitter Felix threw was down at the knees or lower.  When he does that, he’s untouchable.   Great outing and hopefully it signals that he’s regaining his feel for the splitter.  

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38 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

MAY splits Felix is now at ~55% K rate and ~20% BB rate so geez must the fielders be bored and/or pumped to see their guy just blowing everyone away. 

Felix really does seem to just be playing catch out there a lot of the time.   He has almost 4 times as many strikeouts (53) as hits allowed (14).   

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