Adley Rutschman BB/K Watch

[Aristotelian]

Adley has not struck out since 4/10. Since then he has drawn 6 BB, pushing his season total to 11 BB/9 K. Last year he came in at 86 K/65 BB.  90/79 across AA-AAA in 2021. He's got a chance to enter some elite company if he can do it in the majors (Soto, Bregman, Yandy Diaz last year).

Tied for 3rd in BB with Trout, Soto, and Gunnar, 3rd in OBP. Adley is absolutely locked in right now. 

[emmett16]

I saw he was at 1/1 a few days ago.  Pretty amazing what he is doing.  He is must watch TV for any baseball fan.  

[Frobby]

Actually, he has 12 walks, not 11.

[joelala]

That price tag is climbin. Just get a deal done! It’s absurd. 10/180 or thereabouts.   What a player he is. 
 

I was at the Sox game last night and you just kind of knew he was gonna come through. Their whole stadium fully deflated. You could actually feel it. Very cool. 

[Aristotelian]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Actually, he has 12 walks, not 11.

Lol the one thing I was trying to do with this thread and I messed up. 9 + 3 = 12, you are correct!

[backdoorslider]

Signing Adley long term is not a concern at the moment. He's not even arb eligible until 2026. He is under team control through the 2028 season. He will be free agent going into his age 31 season. Just like Aaron Judge did. Machado is about to turn 31 now. Think about that. I don't have a fear of players in their early to mid 30s with good track records who are professionals who stay in shape and focus on their craft. But here is the thing. Guys like Manny and Judge are corner infielders and outfielders. Their knees aren't taking a pounding. They last a long ass time.

 

Adley's gonna have a lot of miles on those knees in his 30s. Catchers age terribly. So, for now, I'm enjoying the Adley ride and not worrying too much about a 31 plus year old Adley.

[joelala]

5 minutes ago, backdoorslider said:

Signing Adley long term is not a concern at the moment. He's not even arb eligible until 2026. He is under team control through the 2028 season. He will be free agent going into his age 31 season. Just like Aaron Judge did. Machado is about to turn 31 now. Think about that. I don't have a fear of players in their early to mid 30s with good track records who are professionals who stay in shape and focus on their craft. But here is the thing. Guys like Manny and Judge are corner infielders and outfielders. Their knees aren't taking a pounding. They last a long ass time.

 

Adley's gonna have a lot of miles on those knees in his 30s. Catchers age terribly. So, for now, I'm enjoying the Adley ride and not worrying too much about a 31 plus year old Adley.

Fair point but re: age differences between Adley and Manny. I’d still like to lock him up because I think he can be an elite first baseman if it eventually comes to that. Or he could end up having yadier Molina or pudge Rodriguez longevity behind there. We don’t know, but I want to find out with him in an orioles uniform. 

[banks703]

31 minutes ago, joelala said:

Fair point but re: age differences between Adley and Manny. I’d still like to lock him up because I think he can be an elite first baseman if it eventually comes to that. Or he could end up having yadier Molina or pudge Rodriguez longevity behind there. We don’t know, but I want to find out with him in an orioles uniform. 

The advances in medicine and science have allowed more guys to play longer behind the plate and it’s increasing.  It is less of a guarantee that an age 31 Adley is on his decline nowadays compared to even ten years back. 
 

Yadi is a great exception obviously to the aging rules of the game and I would hesitate to suggest that Adley could experience that same longevity but  small things that the game has produced in the last 20 years (knee savers were something that became popular in my HS days in the early 2000’s) have been tremendous in helping guys play longer at catcher. 
 

I am not in any way suggesting Adley will catch into his late 30’s like Yadi but Adley’s bat is good enough that they could move him to first if/when they need to do that. I read something somewhere (I’ll go back and find it) where a scout said that Adley has the best batting eye of anyone that he has seen since Tony Gwynn. The dude is going to hit for a long time. 
 

And aren’t we forgetting that we lost a year of controllability with his second place finish in the ROY voting last year? 
 

Adley is somewhat of a conundrum given his current age and service time. I am not sure you throw ten year contracts out to a 25 year old catcher simply to buy out his pre-arb years. I think they do that when he reaches arbitration or possibly the year prior. He’s definitely going to be an expensive arb case. 

[jabba72]

44 minutes ago, backdoorslider said:

Signing Adley long term is not a concern at the moment. He's not even arb eligible until 2026. He is under team control through the 2028 season. He will be free agent going into his age 31 season. Just like Aaron Judge did. Machado is about to turn 31 now. Think about that. I don't have a fear of players in their early to mid 30s with track records who are professionals who stay in shape and focus on their craft. But here is the thing. Guys like Manny and Judge are corner infielders and outfielders. Their knees aren't taking a pounding. They last a long time.

 

Adley's gonna have a lot of miles on those knees in his 30s. Catchers age terribly. So, for now, I'm enjoying the Adley ride and not worrying too much about a 31 plus year old Adley.

Adley can move to 1B when he's 30 if he's having knee trouble. His bat is looking elite at the moment. I would love to get a 8 year deal done. 

[Sports Guy]

47 minutes ago, backdoorslider said:

Signing Adley long term is not a concern at the moment. He's not even arb eligible until 2026. He is under team control through the 2028 season. He will be free agent going into his age 31 season. Just like Aaron Judge did. Machado is about to turn 31 now. Think about that. I don't have a fear of players in their early to mid 30s with good track records who are professionals who stay in shape and focus on their craft. But here is the thing. Guys like Manny and Judge are corner infielders and outfielders. Their knees aren't taking a pounding. They last a long ass time.

 

Adley's gonna have a lot of miles on those knees in his 30s. Catchers age terribly. So, for now, I'm enjoying the Adley ride and not worrying too much about a 31 plus year old Adley.

The only problem with no signing him is, the closer to FA he gets, the less likely he is to sign a contract and that means you probably look to trade him after year 4 or 5..which means we are counting down the time with him here. 

[Just Regular]

I remember reading Bill James' observation that many of baseball's greatest players have also been some of its most unusual.

Part of the magic carpet ride now is players who just break curves.    Adley's agents know this too, so there will be work needed to build a meeting of the minds the Club's algorithms can live with.

Or he could become the Ohtani-like asset in another four years.     The Angels aren't trading Ohtani if they are any good, but will they be any good?    I'm more confident in the '27 Orioles than the '23 Angels.

[backdoorslider]

55 minutes ago, joelala said:

Fair point but re: age differences between Adley and Manny. I’d still like to lock him up because I think he can be an elite first baseman if it eventually comes to that. Or he could end up having yadier Molina or pudge Rodriguez longevity behind there. We don’t know, but I want to find out with him in an orioles uniform. 

 

Yep, his bat plays anywhere. And he's got old man skills as a young man. His eye is elite and he's got some pop too.

[maybenxtyr]

It's totally recency bias and eye test, but he may be one of the best players I've ever seen. 

 

Manny is an awesome player and a superstar, but the skill set is just different with Adley.

 

I meant best player to come through the system in Baltimore.

[Can_of_corn]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The only problem with no signing him is, the closer to FA he gets, the less likely he is to sign a contract and that means you probably look to trade him after year 4 or 5..which means we are counting down the time with him here. 

It will also be more expensive and take him further into his 30's

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, backdoorslider said:

Signing Adley long term is not a concern at the moment. He's not even arb eligible until 2026. He is under team control through the 2028 season. He will be free agent going into his age 31 season. Just like Aaron Judge did. Machado is about to turn 31 now. Think about that. I don't have a fear of players in their early to mid 30s with good track records who are professionals who stay in shape and focus on their craft. But here is the thing. Guys like Manny and Judge are corner infielders and outfielders. Their knees aren't taking a pounding. They last a long ass time.

 

Adley's gonna have a lot of miles on those knees in his 30s. Catchers age terribly. So, for now, I'm enjoying the Adley ride and not worrying too much about a 31 plus year old Adley.

He’s a free agent after 2027.