O's offense, one of the best in baseball

[Brooks The Great]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Thanks, I didn't realize his OBP was that good.  Just needs to get some more hits to fall.  I don't think it invalidates all my points, but I assume you like to paint everything with a broad brush to belittle other people.

No, I'll just call out bad takes that have no basis in fact.

[OriolesMagic83]

6 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

No, I'll just call out bad takes that have no basis in fact.

Your right, you know everything a$$hole, why don't you make your own board.  This is the kind of s that ruins the hangout.

[emmett16]

On 4/16/2023 at 8:04 PM, Aristotelian said:

The scary thing is Gunnar and Santander haven't gotten going yet. Mountcastle has actually been pretty bad aside from the one huge game.

I love that we have at least a couple consistent good AB/high OBP guys now. That's how you get big innings and break games open. 

Still, feels like we can't keep playing from behind. Would be nice if the pitchers could step up once in a while or we will be stuck on .500.

 

Mountcastle is averaging a HR every 11 ABs and is on pace for a 60 HR season.  You have some extremely high standards.  He has been melting the ball all season.  

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Your right, you know everything a$$hole, why don't you make your own board.  This is the kind of s that ruins the hangout.

That sure escalated quickly.

[AnythingO's]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Your right, you know everything a$$hole, why don't you make your own board.  This is the kind of s that ruins the hangout.

OK please step back from the edge, you made an erroneous comment about Gunnar and were called on it. The more eggregious statement was about Mateo "just being an average hitter", why would you want him to climb down from his present pinnacle???????lol

[LA2]

11 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

That sure escalated quickly.

I think partly also because Brooks the Great said in a very un-Brooks way that OM83 had completely lost any credibility. It's likely that it could have been said in a way that didn't cause such an extreme reaction, but maybe not.

[LA2]

On 4/17/2023 at 3:46 AM, Brooks The Great said:

Gunnar has a .373 OBP. The fact you call him an automatic out invalidates your credibility and whatever point(s) you're trying to make.

Both Gunnar (13/59) and Adley (16/77) have walked in over a fifth of their plate appearances. But Adley has punished pitches in the strike zone while Henderson hasn't--his 21 Ks is alarming. As a result, opponents will soon throw more pitches over the plate to him and he'll eventually adjust his stroke and hit them. BA is up from .125 to .178 last nine games.

Edited April 18, 2023 by LA2

[CaptDbog]

On 4/16/2023 at 8:08 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Yes the guy who is leading the league in RBI despite having terrible luck on his batted balls has been pretty bad.

Yep, he sure was bad today when his teammate's bad play cost him a hit.

He isn't on pace to beat Judge's HR record.  Total letdown. 

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, CaptDbog said:

He isn't on pace to beat Judge's HR record.  Total letdown. 

In fairness to the original comment, he has a .647 OPS in the games other than the huge 9-RBI night. Good for about an 82 OPS+. I’m not sure what constitutes “pretty bad” for a 1B, but that can’t be far off. 

We can talk about the EV and the xWOBA and the bad luck and all the rest until we’re blue in the face. All still totally relevant in projecting Mountcastle going forward. But, just like last year, when we’re talking about actual production — it’s just not really there, outside of that one massive night. Which is what the original commenter said. 

[Frobby]

14 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Mountcastle is averaging a HR every 11 ABs and is on pace for a 60 HR season.  You have some extremely high standards.  He has been melting the ball all season.  

So if he hits 60 home runs but has a .243 OBP and a 111 OPS+, would you consider that a really good season?   

I’d say Mountcastle has had a really weird first 16 games.  On the positive side, you can’t argue with 6 homers and 20 RBI in 16 games.   Plus, his wOBA (.322) is almost 100 points lower than his xwOBA (.413), indicating that he’s actually been somewhat unlucky so far.  His average exit velocity is up almost 4 mph from last year.  He’s barreling a ton of balls.  He’s been nails with runners on base (1.035 OPS), and runners in scoring position (1.230).   

On the other side, Mountcastle has been terrible with the bases empty (.544 OPS), and he continues to almost never walk, and his strikeout rate is increasing (on pace for 200 K’s).   His chase rate continues to be awful (bottom 5%), and he has a lot of at bats that he just gives away.   

At the end of the day, I’d rather have Mountcastle hitting great with runners on and lousy with bases empty than have it the other way around.   But, you know over 162 games that differential will shrink.  And over time, a .243 OBP won’t fly.  That should get better if his batted ball luck evens out a bit, but the increased strikeout rate is concerning.  Overall, it’s a mixed bag as usual for Mountcastle, made a little more extreme in a small sample size.  


 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, e16bball said:

In fairness to the original comment, he has a .647 OPS in the games other than the huge 9-RBI night. Good for about an 82 OPS+. I’m not sure what constitutes “pretty bad” for a 1B, but that can’t be far off. 

We can talk about the EV and the xWOBA and the bad luck and all the rest until we’re blue in the face. All still totally relevant in projecting Mountcastle going forward. But, just like last year, when we’re talking about actual production — it’s just not really there, outside of that one massive night. Which is what the original commenter said. 

First of all, take away anyone’s best game in a 16-game sample and the net results will be significantly worse.  

Second of all, take away Mountcastle’s 9 RBI game and he still had 4 homers and 11 RBI in 15 games.  That’s a 43 homer, 119 RBI pace without his big game, despite the .647 OPS in those games.   

See the other stuff I wrote above.  It’s a mixed bag.  

 

[MCO'sFan]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So if he hits 60 home runs but has a .243 OBP and a 111 OPS+, would you consider that a really good season?   

I’d say Mountcastle has had a really weird first 16 games.  On the positive side, you can’t argue with 6 homers and 20 RBI in 16 games.   Plus, his wOBA (.322) is almost 100 points lower than his xwOBA (.413), indicating that he’s actually been somewhat unlucky so far.  His average exit velocity is up almost 4 mph from last year.  He’s barreling a ton of balls.  He’s been nails with runners on base (1.035 OPS), and runners in scoring position (1.230).   

On the other side, Mountcastle has been terrible with the bases empty (.544 OPS), and he continues to almost never walk, and his strikeout rate is increasing (on pace for 200 K’s).   His chase rate continues to be awful (bottom 5%), and he has a lot of at bats that he just gives away.   

At the end of the day, I’d rather have Mountcastle hitting great with runners on and lousy with bases empty than have it the other way around.   But, you know over 162 games that differential will shrink.  And over time, a .243 OBP won’t fly.  That should get better if his batted ball luck evens out a bit, but the increased strikeout rate is concerning.  Overall, it’s a mixed bag as usual for Mountcastle, made a little more extreme in a small sample size.  


 

Once again Frobby makes a completely coherent and precise post with no ego or gravitas. There is just no room for that here on the OH. Seriously, this is a great message board with the occasional over the top post that usually gets called out pretty quickly. Kind of like a veteran clubhouse that polices' itself. 

[Hank Scorpio]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So if he hits 60 home runs but has a .243 OBP and a 111 OPS+, would you consider that a really good season?   

I’d say Mountcastle has had a really weird first 16 games.  On the positive side, you can’t argue with 6 homers and 20 RBI in 16 games.   Plus, his wOBA (.322) is almost 100 points lower than his xwOBA (.413), indicating that he’s actually been somewhat unlucky so far.  His average exit velocity is up almost 4 mph from last year.  He’s barreling a ton of balls.  He’s been nails with runners on base (1.035 OPS), and runners in scoring position (1.230).   

On the other side, Mountcastle has been terrible with the bases empty (.544 OPS), and he continues to almost never walk, and his strikeout rate is increasing (on pace for 200 K’s).   His chase rate continues to be awful (bottom 5%), and he has a lot of at bats that he just gives away.   

At the end of the day, I’d rather have Mountcastle hitting great with runners on and lousy with bases empty than have it the other way around.   But, you know over 162 games that differential will shrink.  And over time, a .243 OBP won’t fly.  That should get better if his batted ball luck evens out a bit, but the increased strikeout rate is concerning.  Overall, it’s a mixed bag as usual for Mountcastle, made a little more extreme in a small sample size.  


 

If Mountcastle could correctly identify a slider, he would be unstoppable.

[spleen1015]

Maybe someone else remembers this, but I thought I heard him say in an interview that he's not up there to walk. He wants to hit. I thought it was the post game interview after the 9 RBI game, but I watched it yesterday and he didn't say it. My mind tells me he said it, because I thought it was interesting at the time, but I can't find it now.

[Brooks The Great]

2 hours ago, LA2 said:

Both Gunnar (13/59) and Adley (16/77) have walked in over a fifth of their plate appearances. But Adley has punished pitches in the strike zone while Henderson hasn't--his 21 Ks is alarming. As a result, opponents will soon throw more pitches over the plate to him and he'll eventually adjust his stroke and hit them. BA is up from .125 to .178 last nine games.

I'm not worried about Gunnar at all. His excellent walk rate even while slumping is the sign of a great hitter with a great approach. 

He'd usually slump in the minors - especially at new levels for him - and also usually still draw a good amount of walks before getting hot. Gunnar's always had some swing and miss to his game, so even the 21 K's isn't all that concerning for me. It's obviously harder to make adjustments at the major league level, but I'm confident he'll get hot soon.