Joey Ortiz 2023

[johnrambo]

There was only room for 1 Ortiz/Westburg on the roster. Gunnar plays everyday. Urias and Frazier pretty much combine to lockdown another spot in the infield too. That leaves Ortiz/Westburg in direct competition for a spot on the diamond. One of these guys is going to win the job. That's just a reality of baseball. 

[Tony-OH]

On 7/12/2023 at 2:19 PM, Baltimorecuse said:

Most people didn't believe a lot of things that turned out to be true.  I've never run with the crowd.  I used to call on a very successful business man who had a great sign behind his desk that said, "If two men in a business always agree, one of them isn't necessary."  

Scouts disagree all the time so having a different opinion is fine. I'm sometimes very different on players than national outlets and don't even look at their lists when I do mine. At the end of the day, as long as you can back up your reasoning, even if people disagree, it's fine to have an outlier opinion. 

I can remember being a big outlier on Zach Davies who i liked a lot more than the Orioles counts and player development people did. they felt he was a middle reliever at best and just saw a guy who used all four quadrants of the zone with 4 or 5 different speeds to keep batters off balance despite the big fastball. Nobody else had Davies in their top 10 prospects at the time that I can remember and I think I had him as high as #4 at one time ?? I think. Frobby or RZNJ will probably fact check me!

As for Ortiz, I think the one thing the Orioles aren't thrilled with his his lack of walks, but I think that would improve over time and even if not, he's going to be a guy who I think hits for some average. Personally, I think he's just as good a defender as Mateo if not more sure handed though he doesn't possess Mateo's plus-plus arm at SS.

Ortiz should be in the major leagues right now but I understand why he's blocked and I'd rather him play everyday than sit the bench like he did when the Orioles brought him up earlier in the year.

 

[Sydnor]

5 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Some of you are enthralled with AAA numbers. But we are not seeing a direct correlation between what a player does there and what he does here.

Gunnar was the #1 prospect in the game (much more talented/better than Ortiz) and it took him 2 months before figuring things out. Westburg is currently adjusting to this level. And Cowser has just arrived and is struggling to acclimate thus far. 

THEY WERE ALL RANKED AHEAD OF ORTIZ.

What do you guys want? To punt the season? Do you want them to bring up Kjerstad too who’s crushing AAA and a much better hitter than Ortiz? What about Mayo, him too?

I agree that Ortiz didn’t get a fair shake. But it is what it is now. Nothing can be done about what happened.

The team is trying to win while bringing guys to the show in a responsible manner,

I get it. I have said these decisions are complicated. The front office has tough decisions to make. I thought some posters, clearly not you, might be interested to hear how Joey Ortiz has performed since being sent back to Norfolk. 

You are enthralled with rankings. I am not as enthralled with how Jonathan Mayo, Keith Law, etc. rank these guys as you are. Eric Longenhagen ranks Ortiz more highly. I trust what @Tony-OHsays about prospects more than those guys. I also have the opportunity to watch them play when I am in VA Beach. So while I’m not a scout, I do form opinions based on what I see.

The point is that Ortiz hasn’t sulked since being sent down. He’s continued to hit at the same level he hit at before. The other point is that he doesn’t need to be an elite hitter to be 3-4 WAR player at second base because his range and arm at the position is elite. Andres Gimenez, who again I think is more talented than Ortiz, is on pace to do just that because he is elite defensively at second. It’s harder to play second base now without the shift, and I’m tired of seeing Frazier and his -11 OAA and -6 DRS. I posted about his worst in the league defense like 7-10 days ago. 

What if Westburg doesn’t hit? It’s not a certainty that he will. If he doesn’t, it seems like it would be nice to have another infielder trying to force his way on to the roster. Ortiz is trying to do that.

[Bemorewins]

25 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

I get it. I have said these decisions are complicated. The front office has tough decisions to make. I thought some posters, clearly not you, might be interested to hear how Joey Ortiz has performed since being sent back to Norfolk. 

You are enthralled with rankings. I am not as enthralled with how Jonathan Mayo, Keith Law, etc. rank these guys as you are. Eric Longenhagen ranks Ortiz more highly. I trust what @Tony-OHsays about prospects more than those guys. I also have the opportunity to watch them play when I am in VA Beach. So while I’m not a scout, I do form opinions based on what I see.

The point is that Ortiz hasn’t sulked since being sent down. He’s continued to hit at the same level he hit at before. The other point is that he doesn’t need to be an elite hitter to be 3-4 WAR player at second base because his range and arm at the position is elite. Andres Gimenez, who again I think is more talented than Ortiz, is on pace to do just that because he is elite defensively at second. It’s harder to play second base now without the shift, and I’m tired of seeing Frazier and his -11 OAA and -6 DRS. I posted about his worst in the league defense like 7-10 days ago. 

What if Westburg doesn’t hit? It’s not a certainty that he will. If he doesn’t, it seems like it would be nice to have another infielder trying to force his way on to the roster. Ortiz is trying to do that.

You are correct in that I do place merit in player rankings from multiple sources. To me they serve as an unbiased/objective attempt to evaluate the talent of players compared to all other organizations.

I don’t doubt for a second that Ortiz is a talented player. What I have serious questions about is can he immediately be a positive with the bat? Of course, I have no way to have a definitive answer to this because I don’t possess a time-marchine or a portal into the future. 

I simply ask the question and have reservations based upon the evidence that we have which is all of our other comparables (our other prospects) from the last few years. All of them, even the most talented ones have need time to figure things out at this level. There is not a single prospect that we have seen the last couple of years where there was a direct/immediate translation from their numbers at AAA and what they did say 1 when called up to the the show.

IMO - we are creating unrealistic expectations by believing that said young player/prospect (Ortiz or whoever) is immediately going to come and join the team (in a playoff race/chase) and succeed/soar/not make rookie mistakes/take their lumps, etc.

CAN Ortiz be a defensive upgrade to Frazier, Gunnar, Westburg? - I believe the answer is most likely yes. But there is two sides to the game as you know. He has to be able to hit well enough to justify his playing time everyday given we already have 2 guys who are trying to figure things out in Cowser and Westburg. And we also still have to consider that Gunnar is still (while supremely talented) a rookie too.

I am not anti Joey Ortiz. If the Orioles had or do decide at the deadline to trade another prospect instead of him like Westburg, Norby, Cowser, etc. I will be fine with that because I trust that they have the tools/knowledge/expertise to make those assessments much better than I do. Or for that matter any non-professional. Having said that, it doesn’t mean that they can’t be wrong, but they are most certainly more informed than a non-professional would be.

Finally I recognize/honor every fan/poster preference to “like who they like” in terms of our players/prospects. I try not to be biased in that way especially with guys who are not proven at this level because I recognize that the way that we are built and drafted not all position players can or were even meant to stay. Our deficiency isn’t really in position players at the major league level, it’s with our pitching. Since our terrible owner refuses to spend meaningful money to acquire better pitchers, the only other place that it can come from is our overabundance of positional prospect talent.

If Ortiz or any of other non-elite prospects (any not named Holliday, Kjerstad, Mayo) have to be moved, I am fine with that.

[Alasdaire]

6 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Some of you are enthralled with AAA numbers. But we are not seeing a direct correlation between what a player does there and what he does here.

Gunnar was the #1 prospect in the game (much more talented/better than Ortiz) and it took him 2 months before figuring things out. Westburg is currently adjusting to this level. And Cowser has just arrived and is struggling to acclimate thus far. 

THEY WERE ALL RANKED AHEAD OF ORTIZ.

What do you guys want? To punt the season? Do you want them to bring up Kjerstad too who’s crushing AAA and a much better hitter than Ortiz? What about Mayo, him too?

I agree that Ortiz didn’t get a fair shake. But it is what it is now. Nothing can be done about what happened.

The team is trying to win while bringing guys to the show in a responsible manner,

The national media members whose opinions you're basing your entire valuation of Ortiz on rely mostly on the numbers you're dismissing. People on this message board are more likely to have watched Joey Ortiz actually play/develop and piece together disparate sources of information over the course of years than the intern at MLB Pipeline who has noticed that other rankings have included Joey Ortiz and so is sorting through prospects in the 75-200 range by slash lines to find a reason to include him on their own list so that they don't miss the boat.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

The national media members whose opinions you're basing your entire valuation of Ortiz on rely mostly on the numbers you're dismissing. People on this message board are more likely to have watched Joey Ortiz actually play/develop and piece together disparate sources of information over the course of years than the intern at MLB Pipeline who has noticed that other rankings have included Joey Ortiz and so is sorting through prospects in the 75-200 range by slash lines to find a reason to include him on their own list so that they don't miss the boat.

That's why I try to use multiple sources. Not just 1 or even 5. I try to listen to the Minors and Majors radio show on MLB XM every Sunday, certain prospect podcasts, listen to some objective analysts in the know, listen to what Tony says and look at multiple ranking lists. Plus use my own untrained/unprofessional eyeballs.

I admit readily that I can be wrong and so can all of them. But I work with the tools that I have.

Again, I acknowledge that you have a certain affinity/affection/preference regarding Joey Ortiz. I don't think that there is anything wrong with that.

But no where have I heard him described as a future star. You know the way Holliday and Henderson have been described.

If we have to move him or Westburg or Norby, that's okay IMO. We have comparable/replaceable parts. 

I try (as stated earlier) to not fret over prospects especially if they are not ones with star level potential. Some will have to be moved because we have so many (admittedly it's a good problem to have.)

[Alasdaire]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

That's why I try to use multiple sources. Not just 1 or even 5. I try to listen to the Minors and Majors radio show on MLB XM every Sunday, certain prospect podcasts, listen to some objective analysts in the know, listen to what Tony says and look at multiple ranking lists. Plus use my own untrained/unprofessional eyeballs.

I admit readily that I can be wrong and so can all of them. But I work with the tools that I have.

Again, I acknowledge that you have a certain affinity/affection/preference regarding Joey Ortiz. I don't think that there is anything wrong with that.

But no where have I heard him described as a future star. You know the way Holliday and Henderson have been described.

If we have to move him or Westburg or Norby, that's okay IMO. We have comparable/replaceable parts. 

I try (as stated earlier) to not fret over prospects especially if they are not ones with star level potential. Some will have to be moved because we have so many (admittedly it's a good problem to have.)

I get it. I actually approached my valuations of things in life like that for a long time. I thought that if multiple seemingly credible, "objective" sources all seem to agree on the same thing, then there must be some truth to that thing.

But now I think that's a flawed approach. Many of those sources are an echo chamber and are probably just repeating the same thing that the others are in order to save face, so there's no independent value in their conclusions. And even if a source is employing its own reasoned methodology, it could be based on criteria that aren't applicable to the situation you're trying to assess.

The way to form an opinion that has conviction is through your own observation/analysis. Or you could try to carbon copy the opinion of someone else who has done that. But forming an opinion based on a consensus of sources really doesn't yield much insight. There might be limited value from doing that in terms of gauging public perception/trade value and it might be the best proxy for how Joey Ortiz compares to a AA SS prospect on an NL West team who you realistically will never watch, but it doesn't say much about how good a player is going to be.

[orioles22]

I've liked Ortiz for a while, but I was really impressed the last two days watching him in person in Gwinnett. He made every routine play, then went behind the bag to field a ball where he covered a tremendous amount of ground and almost got the guy at first after twisting around with an accurate and strong throw. He also went into the hole for a force, then went into left for a catch. I'm starting to think he's our shortstop with Holliday at second in 2025 and beyond.