AL team to watch: White Sox

[EddeeEddee]

11 hours ago, Just Regular said:

70% of the time I think Ohtani stays.    The 30% of the times he goes my guess is a return around Westburg, Santander, Irvin is enough.

April and the AL Central being what they are, Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito beat Minnesota in the next 1.25 days and CHW are just 6 games off the division lead.     #AutomaticBerth

If Westburg, Santander and Irvin could get Ohtani I think the O's would do that right now.  But I doubt that deal gets you Ohtani's English translator.  Pretty sure the Angels don't want to trade him.  They would need an offer to convince them to let him go, and I think other teams would come up with much better offers than that.  I said earlier I doubted Gunnar and Holliday alone would get the O's Ohtani.  But I said that thinking he hit free agency after next season.  Didn't realize it was coming this offseason.  It will be interesting to see if the O's target Ohtani, but I think it's doubtful because I think the asking price will be quite higher than what you're suggesting.

[ShoelesJoe]

Cease pitched last night against the Twins, gave up 4 ER in 5 innings, 5 hits and 4 walks, struck out 6. 98 pitches, 56 of them strikes.

I'm wondering two things: 1) are his current problems making Dylan Cease more likely to be traded, or less likely? Chicago may figure that nobody's going to give up much for a starter with an ERA approaching 5, so why not keep him. Or, they might drop their asking price because Cease isn't the dominant pitcher he used to be, making him more attractive to teams who believe they can fix whatever's wrong. And 2) what's the logic behind waiting 'till just before the August 1st deadline to make trades? Are teams with available assets going to demand more now than they would the last week of July? Wouldn't it be just the opposite? Wouldn't the last 48 hours before the trade deadline be an intense seller's market, as a lot of teams are competing for the few available players at that point? 

Games lost in May are just as damaging as games lost in September. We're 20% into the season, and most teams have a good idea of where they stand vs their competition. They know what's working and what is not, where they're strong and where they're weak. Where they're likely (within reason) to finish in the standings. If your rotation is struggling now it's probably not going to get much better before August. If your minor leagues are a barren wasteland now they're still going to be a barren wasteland in late July. I see no reason to wait for the trade deadline to make deals that will improve the team, and lots of reasons (the 70 or so games between now and then) to pull the trigger ASAP, assuming you've targeted players that will help the team and are willing to meet the ask. 

It looks to me like teams wait 'till just before the deadline because that's what everybody else does. That makes no sense to me. If a deal is out there now then you make it now. Not on July 31st.

[Just Regular]

The Tim Anderson jolt hasn't really done it, they still have the Liam Hendriks one next week.    The Royals blasted Lance Lynn last night like he was Grayson Rodriguez or something.     Kenny Williams was the honcho also in 2017 when his Jose Quintana was one of the biggest July pieces where he moved at the All-Star break like Machado.    Looks like he did about 5 deals that month:

July 13, 2017

Traded José Quintana to the Chicago Cubs. Received Bryant Flete (minors), Matt Rose (minors), Dylan Cease and Eloy Jiménez.

• July 19, 2017

  Traded Todd Frazier, Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson to the New York Yankees. Received Ian Clarkin (minors), Tito Polo (minors), Blake Rutherford (minors) and Tyler Clippard.

  July 26, 2017

  Traded Anthony Swarzak to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received Ryan Cordell.

  July 27, 2017

  Traded Dan Jennings to the Tampa Bay Rays. Received Casey Gillaspie (minors).

  July 30, 2017

  Traded Melky Cabrera and cash to the Kansas City Royals. Received Andre Davis (minors) and A.J. Puckett (minors).

[Sports Guy]

Chicago tried the blow it up, tank and rebuild thing and they had minor success. You would think this core will get broken up and they will unload guys that are gone soon.

Cease, if he starts pitching well, will be the guy that fetches the most but I tend to think they keep him. They won’t go full rebuild imo.

But guys like Lynn and Gioloto are likely goners.

[sportsfan8703]

It would be nice to make it all the way to the playoffs and not be +200 under dogs because we run into Cole, Manoah, Lopez, Gausman, Gray, and  Mclanahan. 
 

There’s a long way till July 31. 
 

I guess a good scenario for us would be for Ohtanhi to get traded to the Dodgers. The CWS, TEX, and some NL teams completely fall apart. Then Cease, DeGrom(health), Giolito, and EdRod, will be available. 

[Just Regular]

July 2018 going all the way to Gausman and Schoop at the last minute took me a little bit by surprise.

The only question might end up how far does it go.     Because you can't predict baseball, maybe the answer to Kim Ng's great Mullins or Reynolds question is Luis Robert.

[Sports Guy]

I think the biggest question left to answer, in terms of team building, is when does Elias “let it go”.

We joked about the lift off comment this offseason and some people took it the wrong way but overall, the mindset has and should change.

My question is, how much is the mindset changing for 2023?  Is he ready to trade real assets for real assets? Or is Elias still in the wait and see mode? 
 

[DirtyBird]

When can we add Cleveland/Shane Bieber to this list?

They have some young talent and solid prospects in the organization. But Bieber only under team control for one more season. If they are struggling to catch the Twins at the deadline, which direction do they go - Buy, Sell or Hold?

[baltfan]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

When can we add Cleveland/Shane Bieber to this list?

They have some young talent and solid prospects in the organization. But Bieber only under team control for one more season. If they are struggling to catch the Twins at the deadline, which direction do they go - Buy, Sell or Hold?

Would prefer to trade with a stupider team like the White Sox, but I guess you can't be picky. 

[RarityFlaherty]

On 5/4/2023 at 5:18 PM, ShoelesJoe said:

Cease pitched last night against the Twins, gave up 4 ER in 5 innings, 5 hits and 4 walks, struck out 6. 98 pitches, 56 of them strikes.

I'm wondering two things: 1) are his current problems making Dylan Cease more likely to be traded, or less likely? Chicago may figure that nobody's going to give up much for a starter with an ERA approaching 5, so why not keep him. Or, they might drop their asking price because Cease isn't the dominant pitcher he used to be, making him more attractive to teams who believe they can fix whatever's wrong. And 2) what's the logic behind waiting 'till just before the August 1st deadline to make trades? Are teams with available assets going to demand more now than they would the last week of July? Wouldn't it be just the opposite? Wouldn't the last 48 hours before the trade deadline be an intense seller's market, as a lot of teams are competing for the few available players at that point? 

Games lost in May are just as damaging as games lost in September. We're 20% into the season, and most teams have a good idea of where they stand vs their competition. They know what's working and what is not, where they're strong and where they're weak. Where they're likely (within reason) to finish in the standings. If your rotation is struggling now it's probably not going to get much better before August. If your minor leagues are a barren wasteland now they're still going to be a barren wasteland in late July. I see no reason to wait for the trade deadline to make deals that will improve the team, and lots of reasons (the 70 or so games between now and then) to pull the trigger ASAP, assuming you've targeted players that will help the team and are willing to meet the ask. 

It looks to me like teams wait 'till just before the deadline because that's what everybody else does. That makes no sense to me. If a deal is out there now then you make it now. Not on July 31st.

Teams usually wait until closer to the trade deadline for trades because most teams are still in the hunt and trying to compete right now. Very few teams want to trade away their best pitchers right now. Once teams feel like they are out of the hunt for this year, those pitchers are more likely to be available. 

[Sports Guy]

Moving this conversation away in a different direction….

Name 3 current MiLers (not named Holliday) that you want the Os to hold onto this deadline. Not necessarily guys that are untouchable but guys you hope don’t get dealt.

For me, Mayo and Basallo are the easy ones. After that, I would be ok with basically anyone but I would rather not deal Ortiz AND Westburg. Would like to make sure we keep one of them.

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Moving this conversation away in a different direction….

Name 3 current MiLers (not named Holliday) that you want the Os to hold onto this deadline. Not necessarily guys that are untouchable but guys you hope don’t get dealt.

For me, Mayo and Basallo are the easy ones. After that, I would be ok with basically anyone but I would rather not deal Ortiz AND Westburg. Would like to make sure we keep one of them.

Kjerstad, who I think is basically going to be Rafael Palmeiro, don't @ me

Cowser, because our CF depth is trash

Povich, because our SP depth in the upper minors is suspect at best

I'm not really a Mayo guy. Basallo, yeah, wouldn't want to see him dealt but he's the kind of super-high-upside teenager that might push a deal over the edge, and you can kind of forget about it for a few years and feel like it didn't hurt your depth too bad. Definitely hurts your talent floor on the farm though. 

[RarityFlaherty]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Moving this conversation away in a different direction….

Name 3 current MiLers (not named Holliday) that you want the Os to hold onto this deadline. Not necessarily guys that are untouchable but guys you hope don’t get dealt.

For me, Mayo and Basallo are the easy ones. After that, I would be ok with basically anyone but I would rather not deal Ortiz AND Westburg. Would like to make sure we keep one of them.

I’d definitely prefer to hold onto Kjerstad, Mayo, and Povich. Povich because of the lack of depth for SP in the system. Kjerstad and Mayo because I like the upside of the power bats. I think the middle of our batting order is a little weak and it would be nice to have one of these guys supplant Mountcastle in the middle of the order. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

I’d definitely prefer to hold onto Kjerstad, Mayo, and Povich. Povich because of the lack of depth for SP in the system. Kjerstad and Mayo because I like the upside of the power bats. I think the middle of our batting order is a little weak and it would be nice to have one of these guys supplant Mountcastle in the middle of the order. 

Povich is definitely in the conversation. Because of the nature of pitcher injuries, I likely lean towards a position player over him but I do agree it’s close.

[DirtyBird]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Povich is definitely in the conversation. Because of the nature of pitcher injuries, I likely lean towards a position player over him but I do agree it’s close.

Isn't that a reason to not give up pitching depth in the organization?