What if Mateo and Urias are part of the future?

[backdoorslider]

How do you know Holliday is at least an MLB average SS defensively? Very, very few players in the minors have a league average MLB SS glove. Mateo does though, at the least.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

2014-15 Royals were one of the cheaper teams in recent history. 2020 Rays came pretty close.

I know some people feel that only a WS title will do, but I’m not crazy about the KC arc, where they managed to win 95 games and a WS one time, but were horrible for many years before and many years after a relatively short competitive window.   I’d honestly far prefer a Rays-like arc where they’re in the hunt most of the time with only brief periods of retrenchment, even though they’ve fallen short of a WS title so far.   Baseball is my primary pastime six months out of the year, and having a competitive team to watch for those six months every year to me is preferable to having one sublime October surrounded by a bunch of seasons where the competitive portion is over by mid-June.   I realize not everyone feels this way, but I do.

Of course, what I’d really like is to recreate 1960 - 1985 and have a few WS titles sprinkled in with a ton of winning seasons and playoff appearances.  But that’s probably not realistic under baseball’s current economic structure.  

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, HandsomeQuack said:

That's fine. As long as Mateo and Urias are playing well, it would be silly to trade them for the sake of trading them just to call up guys that might be as good as them. If that creates a logjam and leads to Ortiz and others getting traded, fine. If the team gets offered an enticing enough package for Mateo or Urias that they take it in the hopes that Ortiz and others can fill the holes, that's also fine.

The team is contending, these are key players, they are under control for years, there is no need to overcomplicate things. Considering that prospects are less predictable but have higher upside and years of control, they probably make better trade targets for non-contending teams anyway.

We are in agreement. 

I for one believe in Mateo’s talents. I believe in the adjustments that he has made to change the load distribution in his swing. I also believe that the new rule changes to the game make players like him and Mullins more valuable because athleticism has been reintroduced into the game. I want to leave him alone until Holiday forces a decision.

As far as Urias goes, I believe that he is a solid, stable, consistent ball player. He doesn’t have the ceiling and athletic gifts that Mateo possesses but he also has a much higher floor. If we could get value for him as part of a trade then I am fine with that. If other guys like Westburg, Ortiz, etc have more value as part of a trade package then I am fine trading them instead of him.

[RarityFlaherty]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I certainly apologize.

I can’t say that anything is impossible. But I will say that the odds are very low. Look at the 2003 Marlins pitching staff. If Grayson turns into what Beckett was that postseason it gives us better odds.

The statement that I made was about organizational talent. Many of the guys are not ready to come up and contribute yet. But I stand by that statement wholeheartedly. When was the last time that an org could have 3 number one prospects in back to back to back years AND 9 top 100 prospects AND a winning Major League team?

It’s cool. Not a big deal at all.
 

And yeah, I totally agree with you. As is, we don’t have great odds of winning a World Series. But we should be looking to trade for pitching at the deadline. Add one TOR starter, Grayson lives up to his potential, and Means comes back healthy and suddenly we have a fairly solid rotation. All it would take is a streaky hitter or two being on a hot streak through the playoffs and we’d be a very scary team to face. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I only partly agree with this.  I think as each player approaches FA Elias has to make a decision on whether he is worth a long term contract.   If he is not he needs to be traded when he hits 4.5 to 5 years of service time.

Santander is a good example.   I don't think the O's will extend him even if he is projected to hit 30 homers and knock in 100.   Because they don't think he will do that for 3 or 4 more years which is what it probably takes to get him to sign an extension.

Hays will hit this service time level in July of 2024.   I don't think they extend him because he can't stay healthy and that probably gets worse in his 30s.   So no need to trade him now but maybe in July 2024.

Mateo will hit the service time level at the same time as Hays but he does  not have the injury history and  depending on how this season goes he maybe worth an extension with what he can do at SS.  Nobody can really touch him as long as he can defend like he does and hit well.   Question is how long Elias thinks he can do it and does that match the length of the extension.

On the other hand there are Means and Mullins.   Means is probably one of the O's top 5 starters for the next 3 or 4 years.   An extension this off season may be in the cards.   Mullins plays at an All-Star level as a CFer and that is hard to find.  He is not injury prone.   He may be good for another 4 years.   He may be line for an extension.  

Adley is in another category.  As a catcher projecting if he  can   catch regularly into his 30s is a risk.   He may be able to hit at a high level but a 1B/DH is not worth what a C/DH is worth.   Its a rough one that should be decided in the next year or so.

Gunnar/Boras might not even consider an extension.

JMO

This is a good post, and I don’t think it’s inconsistent with what I said.  My only caveat is I think the extend/trade/go year by year decisions will largely depend on who’s ready to come up and take the spot.  There could be times where we keep players until FA without extending or trading them, if we need a player in that spot but may not need them in a year or two.  

[RarityFlaherty]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I know some people feel that only a WS title will do, but I’m not crazy about the KC arc, where they managed to win 95 games and a WS one time, but were horrible for many years before and many years after a relatively short competitive window.   I’d honestly far prefer a Rays-like arc where they’re in the hunt most of the time with only brief periods of retrenchment, even though they’ve fallen short of a WS title so far.   Baseball is my primary pastime six months out of the year, and having a competitive team to watch for those six months every year to me is preferable to having one sublime October surrounded by a bunch of seasons where the competitive portion is over by mid-June.   I realize not everyone feels this way, but I do.

Of course, what I’d really like is to recreate 1960 - 1985 and have a few WS titles sprinkled in with a ton of winning seasons and playoff appearances.  But that’s probably not realistic under baseball’s current economic structure.  

I’m in full agreement. And consistently making the playoffs at least gives you a shot at a title every year. I’d rather be competitive for an extended period of time. 

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I know some people feel that only a WS title will do, but I’m not crazy about the KC arc, where they managed to win 95 games and a WS one time, but were horrible for many years before and many years after a relatively short competitive window.   I’d honestly far prefer a Rays-like arc where they’re in the hunt most of the time with only brief periods of retrenchment, even though they’ve fallen short of a WS title so far.   Baseball is my primary pastime six months out of the year, and having a competitive team to watch for those six months every year to me is preferable to having one sublime October surrounded by a bunch of seasons where the competitive portion is over by mid-June.   I realize not everyone feels this way, but I do.

Of course, what I’d really like is to recreate 1960 - 1985 and have a few WS titles sprinkled in with a ton of winning seasons and playoff appearances.  But that’s probably not realistic under baseball’s current economic structure.  

Yeah, just remember what it was like 1998 to 2011. 14 years of losing. We can never go back that ever again. Compared to that I'd be absolutely fine with the Rays track record.

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, backdoorslider said:

How do you know Holliday is at least an MLB average SS defensively? Very, very few players in the minors have a league average MLB SS glove. Mateo does though, at the least.

I for one don’t know that. But his scouting profile suggest that he should be able to do that. I hope that our scouting department and front office assessed that before he was drafted 1:1.

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

It’s cool. Not a big deal at all.
 

And yeah, I totally agree with you. As is, we don’t have great odds of winning a World Series. But we should be looking to trade for pitching at the deadline. Add one TOR starter, Grayson lives up to his potential, and Means comes back healthy and suddenly we have a fairly solid rotation. All it would take is a streaky hitter or two being on a hot streak through the playoffs and we’d be a very scary team to face. 

With all the org talent and prospects that we have, I hope that we seek to raise the floor of our postseason success by eliminating as many “ifs” as we can. 

Yeah all those things could happen and that would be awesome! But it would be even better if we used so excess positional talent to acquire a true game #1 starter. 

[backdoorslider]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I for one don’t know that. But his scouting profile suggest that he should be able to do that. I hope that our scouting department and front office assessed that before he was drafted 1:1.

Bobby Witt Jr. and his -22 runs saved was suppose to be a legit MLB Shortstop. Fact is man, it's very hard to find an MLB caliber shortstop. Not even Manny could cut it.

[Bemorewins]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I know some people feel that only a WS title will do, but I’m not crazy about the KC arc, where they managed to win 95 games and a WS one time, but were horrible for many years before and many years after a relatively short competitive window.   I’d honestly far prefer a Rays-like arc where they’re in the hunt most of the time with only brief periods of retrenchment, even though they’ve fallen short of a WS title so far.   Baseball is my primary pastime six months out of the year, and having a competitive team to watch for those six months every year to me is preferable to having one sublime October surrounded by a bunch of seasons where the competitive portion is over by mid-June.   I realize not everyone feels this way, but I do.

Of course, what I’d really like is to recreate 1960 - 1985 and have a few WS titles sprinkled in with a ton of winning seasons and playoff appearances.  But that’s probably not realistic under baseball’s current economic structure.  

Are those the only 2 choices KC or Rays? Couldn’t we shoot for like say the Astros or Braves?

I’m asking for a friend…lol

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, backdoorslider said:

Bobby Witt Jr. and his -22 runs saved was suppose to be a legit MLB Shortstop. Fact is man, it's very hard to find an MLB caliber shortstop. Not even Manny could cut it.

I see no lies in anything you said.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, backdoorslider said:

Bobby Witt Jr. and his -22 runs saved was suppose to be a legit MLB Shortstop. Fact is man, it's very hard to find an MLB caliber shortstop. Not even Manny could cut it.

You never know until you actually see them play.  I certainly would never assume that some young SS was going to be equal to Mateo defensively.  He’s put himself in the upper echelons of defensive shortstops.  

[RZNJ]

BTW, Mateo had an old Mateo at bat last night and it scared me.  Swings at slider outside.  Fouls slider on outside half.  Check swing on high fastball way up for strike three.   Seemed like he was trying to do too much last night.  Don’t go homer hunting, Jorge!

[jrobb21613]

Mateo with is speed, defense and the way he is hitting right now is the most dynamic player in the organization and he getting paid 2 mil this year best value in all of baseball.. The earliest he is going anywhere is 2025. I don't see anyone in the organization that can do what he is doing on the field, basepaths and the plate.

Urias cheap and controllable but not as dynamic of a player as Mateo and I believe his production can be replaced and improved upon by Ortiz. I believe Urias will be dealt at the deadline in a pkg that might include Westburg for a starting pitcher.