A Realistic Pitching Ace And What It Will Take to Acquire Him

[eddie83]

Henderson/Holliday/Grod are in Group A

Cowser/Westburg/Ortiz/Mayo/Kjerstad/Hall/Basallo/Norby, ???? Group B

 

Teams are going to ask about Group A. When the Orioles say no then the question is how much from Group B?

[Bahama O's Fan]

15 minutes ago, FlaO'sFan said:

Seconded.

So...let's stop this talk. 

[ShoelesJoe]

18 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

And if you were Elias  would you give that up?

Not a chance in hell. For my part I don't believe Dylan Cease is the TOR starter he used to be. My offer would be something along the lines of Ortiz / Norby + Hays / Stowers. 

My main targets would be Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, and Lucas Giolito. Montgomery in particular has pitched much better for the Cardinals than his record would indicate. And all of them will cost less than what Chicago will be demanding for Cease. 

[Moose Milligan]

The Dylan Cease stans are something to behold.

[clapdiddy]

It's been mentioned, but Giolito is the perfect guy to go after.    He's young enough to throw some money at in an extension over the next 3 years as well.

[Bemorewins]

55 minutes ago, oriole said:

I have a hard time believing Elias would make a big move like this. He is as risk averse as they come and has yet to make any bold moves. He is smart and calculated, yes and it’s worked swimmingly thus far. But he is not going to be jumping in the deep end anywhere anytime soon. I see him targeting someone like Montgomery on the Cardinals or Giolito with the White Sox. Someone who he can send a good, but redundant piece for. 

Then we will won't be winning anything seriously and the last 5 years were for naught. This sounds like a plane committed to being consistently good, but never great.

I hope that you are wrong because Montgomery and Giolito don't really do anything to move the needle for us. They are not much better than what we have now.

[Bemorewins]

46 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Initial demand? Holliday, Henderson, Westburg, and Cowser. 

And that's when the real negotiations start. 

And while they are at it, why not ask for Adley and Grayson too...lol

In what world can a pitcher who had ONE SINGULARLY dominant season get back a former #1 prospect, a soon to be #1 prospect AND two other top 100 prospects. The Nats didn't even get that for Soto!

This package suggested is ludicrous. There is NO PLAYER in the sport of baseball that could fetch that... Not Ohtani, Judge, NO ONE.

Come on, let's be a little more rational and realistic please. 

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

It's been mentioned, but Giolito is the perfect guy to go after.    He's young enough to throw some money at in an extension over the next 3 years as well.

Please no... we don't need to sign up for 3 years of mediocrity.

I am VERY CONFIDENT that the CHI SOX wouldn't ask for anything close to the package of players suggested that including 3 top 100 guys (including a fourth who was #1 and another one who will probably be #1 or #2 by seasons end). I mean what other org could even pay that kind of price and who would for Cease? 

But if Cease is too costly, then you pivot to another top tier guy. IMO Giolito does nothing to anchor the top of our rotation which is what we need now and will need in the future in order to enter the conversation of serious World Series contenders. 

[Bemorewins]

48 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

My guess was similar to yours, only Ortiz, Cowser and maybe Westburg/Norby, or a Drew Rom or Cade Povich..  At least 3 of these guys, and depending on their catching situation, maybe even maverick Handley.

I wouldn't give up any pitching unless it's DL Hall. Again, Soto's resume was much better than Cease's. Dylan Cease is a pitcher who has had ONE great year and nothing else.

I don't mind parting with talent, but I would prefer a different package to part with. 

[Bemorewins]

34 minutes ago, TheWall said:

I find it funny that people are suggesting 3-4 top 100 prospect packages (including Gunnar). There are 0 competitive teams that could match that offer and Cease certainly isn't worth it the way he is pitching. He will definitely cost a big haul, but we definitely shouldn't be giving something similar to the Soto deal.

THIS! It may help to survey the game before suggesting things that just aren't sensible. Even if Cease was pitching at a Cy Young level like last year, this package wouldn't happen and wouldn't even be asked for or entertained. If the CHI SOX asked for that the assumption from me if I was Elias is that they aren't interested in trading Cease. And then you quickly move on. I think people may benefit in doing a little more digging into who Cease actually IS as a player/pitcher. He had count them.... ONE GREAT YEAR AND THAT'S IT! And this is coming from somebody who likes Cease.

[Aristotelian]

Honestly I am not even convinced Cease is an ace. Great year last year, but 4.58 ERA this year, 3.91 in 2021 and 4.01 in 220. More of a good #2 than ace or plus #1. He may have ace level ceiling but he's not there yet.

[oriole]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think he's only a "pretty big disappointment" for those people that had unrealistic expectations to begin with.

Replacement level over 6 starts with a ton of strikeouts.  That is not a result that greatly surprises me.

You’re right…an ace out of the gate was way too much to expect. But considering he’s the only one with the upside to be anything more than a mid rotation guy at best you’ll have to forgive my delusions of grandeur. It’s not like the O’s will be trading for or signing a #1…ever. 

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, BirdMan said:

I agree we are going to need a true # 1 top of the rotation pitcher. Fried is not going to be available in my opinion. 

I do think there is a #1 starting pitcher that should be available. That being said you are not going to be able to trade a bag of balls and bats to land one. The pitcher I have in mind is Dylan Cease. The White Sox need to go into a full rebuild ( which we all know takes 4 to 5 years ) Cease at 27 is to old to wait 5 years before the White Sox are close to contending. Okay guys don't yell at the messenger. I think It would take G. Henderson and K. Stowers. To get him. Cease is a 27 year old with three years remaining under team control. He makes 5.7 million a year. A perfect Oriole fit.

Why would we give up Henderson, you ask? He is never going to be the starting short stop on the orioles. We have Mateo now that is a much better fielder. Holliday is maybe 2 to 3 years away and is also a better fielding short stop. This means that Gunnar is destined to be our third baseman. At this point Gunner appears to be a below average to average third baseman. I am not saying he will not improve with time. I think we have better fielding prospects than him on the farm and I think equal hitters. 

I think Jordan Westburg at third and Dylan Cease make the Orioles a much better team now and in the future. 

Stowers is easily replaced.

The White Sox will need Gunnar because they also need to trade Tim Anderson who will garner them three or so high prospects.

The Oriole management has done a great job of putting us in the position to be able to make a trade like this. We are going to have to give up good quality players to get top flight pitching and depth. 

Well thought out trade proposal.  This is what the O's need, a true #1.  The cost is going to be heavy.  No one is trading the O's an ace for a package starting w/ Westburg or Norby.  Not that they aren't good prospects.  Try selling your fanbase on giving up your ace pitcher for a prospect barely in the top 100.  I think I would rather hold onto Holliday over Gunnar.  I think Holliday is going to be top 5 prospect by end of year if not #1. 

[oriole]

36 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Then we will won't be winning anything seriously and the last 5 years were for naught. This sounds like a plane committed to being consistently good, but never great.

I hope that you are wrong because Montgomery and Giolito don't really do anything to move the needle for us. They are not much better than what we have now.

Montgomery or Giolito take Kremer out of the rotation. That’s enough for me at this point

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, bpilktree said:

The Padres vastly overpaid for Soto and he is an everyday player that doesn’t mean we should overpay for a starter.  

The O's have to overpay when they can't pay w/ money in free agency or develop their own TOR pitchers.  Yeah it would be "easier" to fork over 30-40+ mill/yr for a top starter, but that isn't happening w/ this ownership.  At some point, the O's/Elias has to make their move.