O's The Most Clutch Team In MLB?

[Can_of_corn]

I don't know what all the stats stand for but hey the O's are in first so I like this stat!

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=11,d

Look at the Cubs.

[Moose Milligan]

Even after the Braves series?  Sheesh.

[Aristotelian]

Go figure, I would have guessed middle of the pack at best. 

[Frobby]

Here’s an explanation of the stat:https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/clutch/

Per BB-ref, the O’s have an .842 OPS in high leverage situations, .752 in medium leverage, .713 in low leverage.  So yeah, they’ve been clutch.  

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s an explanation of the stat:https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/clutch/

Per BB-ref, the O’s have an .842 OPS in high leverage situations, .752 in medium leverage, .713 in low leverage.  So yeah, they’ve been clutch.  

For context the league has been .755 in high leverage, .720 in medium, and .721 in low.

And the O's opponents have done .594 in high leverage, .825 in medium, and .750 in low. So the pitchers have been really clutch.

This worries me a bit, because I'd assume all teams trend towards league averages and the Orioles have wildly overperformed in high leverage situations on both sides of the ball.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For context the league has been .755 in high leverage, .720 in medium, and .721 in low.

And the O's opponents have done .594 in high leverage, .825 in medium, and .750 in low. So the pitchers have been really clutch.

This worries me a bit, because I'd assume all teams trend towards league averages and the Orioles have wildly overperformed in high leverage situations on both sides of the ball.

But we’re the clutchiest!   It’s in our DNA!

[btdart20]

22 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For context the league has been .755 in high leverage, .720 in medium, and .721 in low.

And the O's opponents have done .594 in high leverage, .825 in medium, and .750 in low. So the pitchers have been really clutch.

This worries me a bit, because I'd assume all teams trend towards league averages and the Orioles have wildly overperformed in high leverage situations on both sides of the ball.

I bet that’s true in general.  I also wonder if/how team speed influences opposing pitchers?

[Spy Fox]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For context the league has been .755 in high leverage, .720 in medium, and .721 in low.

And the O's opponents have done .594 in high leverage, .825 in medium, and .750 in low. So the pitchers have been really clutch.

This worries me a bit, because I'd assume all teams trend towards league averages and the Orioles have wildly overperformed in high leverage situations on both sides of the ball.

That is concerning.

But would a team with a mediocre starting rotation and elite back end of the bullpen tend towards better performance in high leverage and worse in low leverage, compared to the league?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

That is concerning.

But would a team with a mediocre starting rotation and elite back end of the bullpen tend towards better performance in high leverage and worse in low leverage, compared to the league?

Not all starting innings are low leverage and not all bullpen innings are high leverage.

For instance we've seen the bullpen cough up runs in low leverage situations (the O's are ahead by multiple runs).

[Spy Fox]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not all starting innings are low leverage and not all bullpen innings are high leverage.

For instance we've seen the bullpen cough up runs in low leverage situations (the O's are ahead by multiple runs).

I know it's not a perfect split, but it's still true that the highest leverage innings are often at the end of close games when the back three or four relievers are most likely to be in. 

Though I guess many of the lowest leverage innings go not to the rotation but to the Austin Voths of the world.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I know it's not a perfect split, but it's still true that the highest leverage innings are often at the end of close games when the back three or four relievers are most likely to be in. 

Though I guess many of the lowest leverage innings go not to the rotation but to the Austin Voths of the world.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/tht-live/leverage-index-by-inning/

Data is from the  2013 season.

          1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9
Top     0.96    0.96    0.94    0.95    0.95    0.95    0.97    0.98    0.92
Bottom  0.97    0.94    0.94    0.96    0.93    0.95    0.95    0.96    1.74

 

 

[Spy Fox]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

https://tht.fangraphs.com/tht-live/leverage-index-by-inning/

Data is from the  2013 season.

          1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9
Top     0.96    0.96    0.94    0.95    0.95    0.95    0.97    0.98    0.92
Bottom  0.97    0.94    0.94    0.96    0.93    0.95    0.95    0.96    1.74

 

 

Know of any similar resource that incorporates run differential? The late inning averages would be the balance of some of the lowest leverage innings and some of the highest, which would be covered by different personnel. 

I guess it blows up so much in the bottom of the 9th partially because of walkoff potential but even more so because half of all low leverage blowout games exit the sample at that point. 

[drjohnnyfever1]

6 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Even after the Braves series?  Sheesh.

We're playing good baseball.  One stinker series don't make a season. We're a good club and (not you) but people need to stop and get on board.

[drjohnnyfever1]

6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For context the league has been .755 in high leverage, .720 in medium, and .721 in low.

And the O's opponents have done .594 in high leverage, .825 in medium, and .750 in low. So the pitchers have been really clutch.

This worries me a bit, because I'd assume all teams trend towards league averages and the Orioles have wildly overperformed in high leverage situations on both sides of the ball.

This goes to the perform to the competition argument.  While they need to maybe round out the medium and low leverage situations, the fact that they respond in critical situations should not be worrisome.  Instead, perhaps, hopeful because they are so widely successful in those high leverage situations???

[Filmstudy]

8 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For context the league has been .755 in high leverage, .720 in medium, and .721 in low.

And the O's opponents have done .594 in high leverage, .825 in medium, and .750 in low. So the pitchers have been really clutch.

This worries me a bit, because I'd assume all teams trend towards league averages and the Orioles have wildly overperformed in high leverage situations on both sides of the ball.

Agree completely with this conclusion.  Clutch performance is a harsh mistress.