What Elias' "Win Now Plan" means for players at AAA.

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

If Westburg could play league average or slightly better defense in the outfield corners, he’d be my Hays replacement for the future.

Cowser is my Hays replacement but there in no hurry with that.

Kjerstad is my Santander replacement long term.

I like Westburg playing all over.  All 4 infield positions,  COF, and DH.

[NCRaven]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I like Westburg playing all over.  All 4 infield positions,  COF, and DH.

I'd be fine with that, as well.  

[foxfield]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

This is what I get out of his press conferences. What is going to say about his current players other than they are all doing great? Is he really going to say, "You know, I messed up this offseason when I unnecessarily wasted $8 million of Angelos' money when I had multiple prospects ready to play at the major league level." 

We're all happy with the current record, but we do see weaknesses in his current roster that could easily be improved by mid 20-year old prospects with plenty of AAA time. 

Saying that, I'm not in a rush to change the current formula majorly since they are winning. Should Westburg be up at the major league level at this point, yes, he should. 

Right now his best chance for playing time is at DH, corner outfield, and spelling Gunnar against tough left-handers at 3B. Now I don't want him up here unless he's playing at least 5 times a week since I don't think you bring up a guy like Westburg to be a part-time or platoon player. 

Other good news in AAA is that Irvin has been pitching better and of course, Ortiz is waiting his opportunity there as well. Add in a great start by DL Hall, and there are plenty of options in roles that may need adjustment at some point. 

 

You still say he wasted $8 Million...wasted....and then say you are in no rush to change the current formula.  I am not saying I would have done the Frazier deal...I would not have.  But this is hyperbole.  IF it's a waste of $8M and the contract expires at the end of the year....swallow it and cut him.  But saying I guess since we are winning so we don't have to rush to change the formula...sorta refutes the waste.  At the very least, for nearly a quarter of the season...it has been better than most everyone here, including me expected.

I do fully expect one of the prospects to push through soon and force their way in and I think 2B is the most likely spot (barring injury)....but I think it's time to stop the waste of money bs, since in spite of being no great investment, it clearly has not been a waste.  Of course none of that changes that we should have done more in the off season.

Edited May 12, 2023 by foxfield
I said 1/3 of the season but I meant 1/4

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, foxfield said:

At the very least, for nearly a quarter of the season...it has been better than most everyone here, including me expected.

I’d say Frazier has been almost exactly what I expected.  Per this article, ZiPS’ 50th percentile OPS+ projection for Frazier was 91, which is exactly where he is.  His median WAR projection was 1.8; per fWAR he’s trending more towards 1.3, which was about his 38th percentile projection.  We are getting exactly what we paid for IMO.

Now, was it a waste?   It depends if you think Westburg, Ortiz or whoever could have given us equivalent value without paying the $8 mm.  The reality is unknowable.  

[Sports Guy]

“Worth it” isn’t just a WAR per dollar equation.

[foxfield]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d say Frazier has been almost exactly what I expected.  Per this article, ZiPS’ 50th percentile OPS+ projection for Frazier was 91, which is exactly where he is.  His median WAR projection was 1.8; per fWAR he’s trending more towards 1.3, which was about his 38th percentile projection.  We are getting exactly what we paid for IMO.

Now, was it a waste?   It depends if you think Westburg, Ortiz or whoever could have given us equivalent value without paying the $8 mm.  The reality is unknowable.  

I would still prefer Westbrook or Ortiz.  I think seeing the offensive struggle of Gunner shows perhaps why Elias didn't want to have to break 2 guys in from the start.  I wonder if Gunner comes around if that also helps make it easier to bring up another one.  In the meantime, I wan't claiming Frazier is a great deal or even worth it.  But I think so far it has certainly not been a waste and I think even those of us who didn't like the move should stop calling it that.

And again, I hope that we will see one of Ortiz or Westbrook up sooner rather than later even if they do not have to come up for injury.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

You still say he wasted $8 Million...wasted....and then say you are in no rush to change the current formula.  I am not saying I would have done the Frazier deal...I would not have.  But this is hyperbole.  IF it's a waste of $8M and the contract expires at the end of the year....swallow it and cut him.  But saying I guess since we are winning so we don't have to rush to change the formula...sorta refutes the waste.  At the very least, for nearly a quarter of the season...it has been better than most everyone here, including me expected.

I do fully expect one of the prospects to push through soon and force their way in and I think 2B is the most likely spot (barring injury)....but I think it's time to stop the waste of money bs, since in spite of being no great investment, it clearly has not been a waste.  Of course none of that changes that we should have done more in the off season.

I do think he wasted $8 million because I feel he could have gotten as much or better performance from Westburg or Ortiz at 2B. It's not that I think Frazier is a terrible player, but he definitely is nowhere near worth $8 million. The Orioles had major league ready prospects ready and if not, that had Urias ready. No one will ever convince me, no matter what the year Frazier ends up having, that he was smart signing at the exorbitant amount of $8 million for his services. 

If Frazier was signed for say $3 million and had Vavra's role, I'd like him a lot more, because that's the role that I think he brings value to the team in. I watch a lot of Ortiz in Norfolk and there is no doubt in my mind Ortiz is a better overall player than Frazier is right now. Does anyone on here think the roster would not be better with Ortiz as the everyday 2B and Frazier as the 26th man instead of Vavra? 

I have literally nothing against Frazier as he seems like a good little hustler, a smart player, and guy that makes contact and will do little things here and there to help. If he was the 26th man doing this, he'd be a fan favorite. Instead, he's getting run out there everyday while a better player sits in AAA because Elias misread the market and misread his current player's capabilities. 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d say Frazier has been almost exactly what I expected.  Per this article, ZiPS’ 50th percentile OPS+ projection for Frazier was 91, which is exactly where he is.  His median WAR projection was 1.8; per fWAR he’s trending more towards 1.3, which was about his 38th percentile projection.  We are getting exactly what we paid for IMO.

Now, was it a waste?   It depends if you think Westburg, Ortiz or whoever could have given us equivalent value without paying the $8 mm.  The reality is unknowable.  

We are not getting the production to what Elias is paying him if you go by fWAR, which definitely seems more realistic that erratic rWAR numbers. Either way, I would have gladly taken the 7.25 million extra that you didn't have to pay a rookie and put that into the starting rotation or into a contract for a MOO. 

Elias risk aversion and misreading of the market and his prospects readiness is why Frazier is on this team at his ridiculous salary. 

[maybenxtyr]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I do think he wasted $8 million because I feel he could have gotten as much or better performance from Westburg or Ortiz at 2B. It's not that I think Frazier is a terrible player, but he definitely is nowhere near worth $8 million. The Orioles had major league ready prospects ready and if not, that had Urias ready. No one will ever convince me, no matter what the year Frazier ends up having, that he was smart signing at the exorbitant amount of $8 million for his services. 

If Frazier was signed for say $3 million and had Vavra's role, I'd like him a lot more, because that's the role that I think he brings value to the team in. I watch a lot of Ortiz in Norfolk and there is no doubt in my mind Ortiz is a better overall player than Frazier is right now. Does anyone on here think the roster would not be better with Ortiz as the everyday 2B and Frazier as the 26th man instead of Vavra? 

I have literally nothing against Frazier as he seems like a good little hustler, a smart player, and guy that makes contact and will do little things here and there to help. If he was the 26th man doing this, he'd be a fan favorite. Instead, he's getting run out there everyday while a better player sits in AAA because Elias misread the market and misread his current player's capabilities. 

 

 

That's the best way to put it. I'd bet a crispy dollar bill that Westburg's offense would be better than Frazier. Frazier in the Vavra roll at less dollars wouldn't be a big deal.

[Fiver6565]

It really is true that every thread becomes a Frazier thread. This is two in a row I’ve opened that ostensibly had nothing to do with Frazier, but in reality that’s dominating the discussion within. 
 

this entire board could be merged into one giant thread called ‘The Adam Frazier signing and the myriad reasons it sucked’

imagine if the team was under .500. But mojos many more Frazier threads can there possibly be?

[Sanity Check]

13 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

It really is true that every thread becomes a Frazier thread. This is two in a row I’ve opened that ostensibly had nothing to do with Frazier, but in reality that’s dominating the discussion within. 
 

this entire board could be merged into one giant thread called ‘The Adam Frazier signing and the myriad reasons it sucked’

imagine if the team was under .500. But mojos many more Frazier threads can there possibly be?

Does it make you want to go back and look and see who hijacks all the threads with a Frazier reference to get the ball rolling on that diversion?  Could it be the same person every time?  

But it is funny how that seems to happen.  

[maybenxtyr]

17 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

It really is true that every thread becomes a Frazier thread. This is two in a row I’ve opened that ostensibly had nothing to do with Frazier, but in reality that’s dominating the discussion within. 
 

this entire board could be merged into one giant thread called ‘The Adam Frazier signing and the myriad reasons it sucked’

imagine if the team was under .500. But mojos many more Frazier threads can there possibly be?

Well, it does pertain to the discussion about the MiL players. I think most people have softened on their stance about Frazier. Anyhow, I'm sure that injuries and performance will present opportunities for some of the guys to get a look this season.

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

We are not getting the production to what Elias is paying him if you go by fWAR, which definitely seems more realistic that erratic rWAR numbers. Either way, I would have gladly taken the 7.25 million extra that you didn't have to pay a rookie and put that into the starting rotation or into a contract for a MOO. 

Elias risk aversion and misreading of the market and his prospects readiness is why Frazier is on this team at his ridiculous salary. 

Per Fangraphs, Frazier is on pace to be worth about $10.4 mm, about $2.4 mm more than we are paying him. 

I don’t think his salary is that ridiculous.  I just feel we had other options that would have been more cost efficient, and that the money would have been better spent elsewhere.  Frazier might have been worth $8 mm to a team that didn’t have the options at 2B that we had.  
 

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Per Fangraphs, Frazier is on pace to be worth about $10.4 mm, about $2.4 mm more than we are paying him. 

I don’t think his salary is that ridiculous.  I just feel we had other options that would have been more cost efficient, and that the money would have been better spent elsewhere.  Frazier might have been worth $8 mm to a team that didn’t have the options at 2B that we had.  
 

Question:   If Frazier proceeds that the same pace into late July, does this mean he will be a trade chip that can bring back a prospect (of whatever value)?   July 30 Frazier remaining salary would be about 2.7M.

[Bemorewins]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Cowser is my Hays replacement but there in no hurry with that.

Kjerstad is my Santander replacement long term.

I like Westburg playing all over.  All 4 infield positions,  COF, and DH.

So you are comfortable trading Ortiz and Norby? Anyone else? What kind of player do you think that could fetch?