If you were Adley, what contract terms would you agree to today if offered?

[kidrock]

Length

Overall dollars

Opt outs

etc

Explain your reasoning

[backwardsk]

If I was in his position, I’d have little interest in signing long term. He’s already warned close to $10M not including any endorsements. It would have to be something non team friendly for me not to go year to year.

[Mr-splash]

10 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

If I was in his position, I’d have little interest in signing long term. He’s already warned close to $10M not including any endorsements. It would have to be something non team friendly for me not to go year to year.

 

He needs to stay on this team. We couldn't do anything without him. Constantly finished in the basement year after year. We sucked. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

If I was in his position, I’d have little interest in signing long term. He’s already warned close to $10M not including any endorsements. It would have to be something non team friendly for me not to go year to year.

Being a catcher might give him some incentive to guarantee his earnings. Being a college draftee he is also on the older side. What if we bought out his arb years plus guaranteed him the Mauer contract as a starting point? Adjusting for inflation something like 8/$200 on top of his arb years.

[Hallas]

I'm looking for 8/140.   In line with the Posey extension with a reasonable discount to adjust for the fact that Posey was entering his arb years at the time of extension.

[EddeeEddee]

The O's have some time.  The Twins and Giants didn't lock up Mauer and Posey until after their third seasons.  And catcher is such a demanding position that I suspect many of them prefer the security of not testing the market.  Also the O's probably want to see a bit more of Adley before they offer him a really big deal.

[Sports Guy]

8-10 year deal. 180-250M

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

8-10 year deal. 180-250M

Assuming that the $180 mm is for 8 years and $250 mm is for 10, I think that’s way too much, when you consider that the first 4 years are one year at <$1 mm and then 3 Arb years where he’ll get less than 50% of his FA value (for the 3 years combined).   

Top career earnings for catchers (inclusive of ongoing contracts):

Mauer $218 mm (15 years, $23 mm/yr in the later years)

Molina $174 mm (19 yrs, top salary $20 mm)

Posey $171 mm (12 years, $22 mm/yr in the later years)

Realmuto $135 mm (10 years, $23.875 mm/yr in the later years)

Rodriguez $123 mm (21 years, top salary $12.4 mm).

If I were Adley, I’d ask for 10/$200 mm, starting next year.  That’s basically Posey with 20% inflation (if you include the 2 years Adley already will have played).

 

:
 

Edited May 19, 2023 by Frobby

[Sydnor]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Assuming that the $180 mm is for 8 years and $250 mm is for 10, I think that’s way too much, when you consider that the first 4 years are one year at <$1 mm and then 3 Arb years where he’ll get less than 50% of his FA value (for the 3 years combined).   

Top career earnings for catchers (inclusive of ongoing contracts):

Mauer $218 mm (15 years, $23 mm/yr in the later years)

Molina $174 mm (19 yrs, top salary $20 mm)

Posey $171 mm (12 years, $22 mm/yr in the later years)

Realmuto $135 mm (10 years, $23.875 mm/yr in the later years)

Rodriguez $123 mm (21 years, top salary $12.4 mm).

If I were Adley, I’d ask for 10/$200 mm, starting next year.  That’s basically Posey with 20% inflation (if you include the 2 years Adley already will have played).

 

:
 

I think 10/$200 mm is probably about right, though I suspect it might take a little more through incentives that he would likely attain. If I was advising him, I’d tell him that a deal in the 8 year range makes no sense. He’d cash in to a larger extent by entering FA at 30 than he would at 32/33 if he signed an approximate 8 year deal. I’m sure there’s an amount of money that would get an 8 year deal done, but it’s probably similar to what he would accept for a 10 year deal. I’m just going to enjoy the ride as long as he’s here.

[yark14]

If I were Adley, I wouldn't listen to any offers less than $200 million.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

I think 10/$200 mm is probably about right, though I suspect it might take a little more through incentives that he would likely attain. If I was advising him, I’d tell him that a deal in the 8 year range makes no sense. He’d cash in to a larger extent by entering FA at 30 than he would at 32/33 if he signed an approximate 8 year deal. I’m sure there’s an amount of money that would get an 8 year deal done, but it’s probably similar to what he would accept for a 10 year deal. I’m just going to enjoy the ride as long as he’s here.

I agree with your thinking that an 8 year deal wouldn’t really make sense for Adley.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

10/$200M with an opt out after year 7.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Assuming that the $180 mm is for 8 years and $250 mm is for 10, I think that’s way too much, when you consider that the first 4 years are one year at <$1 mm and then 3 Arb years where he’ll get less than 50% of his FA value (for the 3 years combined).   

Top career earnings for catchers (inclusive of ongoing contracts):

Mauer $218 mm (15 years, $23 mm/yr in the later years)

Molina $174 mm (19 yrs, top salary $20 mm)

Posey $171 mm (12 years, $22 mm/yr in the later years)

Realmuto $135 mm (10 years, $23.875 mm/yr in the later years)

Rodriguez $123 mm (21 years, top salary $12.4 mm).

If I were Adley, I’d ask for 10/$200 mm, starting next year.  That’s basically Posey with 20% inflation (if you include the 2 years Adley already will have played).

 

:
 

He has 4 years left..he will make, assuming everything works out, roughly 40-45M.

So, the 4 years after that at about 35ish per year.

This is a different situation. Adley is “old”. By that I mean, when he’s a FA for the first time, he will be about 30. Catchers don’t tend to get big contracts at age 30 but he’s not an ordinary catcher, as he may be able to be a good offensive DH or maybe even first baseman. 
 

So, you need to put something out there to convince him to sign.

I agree that 35 or so a year is steep. Would rather see 27-30 per year for that 4 years and make it more 8/150-160 or so.

But we need to convince him, at least that’s my guess.

I really don’t want to go the 10 years.

[yark14]

45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I really don’t want to go the 10 years.

Worst case scenario, he makes a fine first baseman when he gets into his mid 30's.  Pay him whatever cash and contract length it takes to lock him up.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, yark14 said:

Pay him whatever cash and contract length it takes to lock him up.

This can never be said.  Everything has a limit beyond which the deal doesn’t make sense.