How much longer can we endure Mountcastle's and Mateo's OBP?

[Moshagge3]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Two-thirds of the Hangout:

Just so many folks that are experts in sports psychology and Kinesics here.  It's a truly amazing community Tony has put together.

I'm not claiming to be able to diagnose the problem, I just don't think opposing pitchers collectively figured out some secret weakness to exploit. Mateo has seen plenty to hit.

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, panick said:

Why do people keep referring to Mateo's great speed? Who cares how fast he can run if he can't get on base?  

 .  .  .

I can't speak for others, but to me Matteo's speed is a valuable offensive asset that is reflected only partially in batting statistics. Stealing bases, taking extra bases, distracting pitchers all contribute to scoring runs in ways that don't show up in OBP, SLG, OPS or BA. Even if his starts and ABs are reduced, which is where things seem to be headed, his speed (and ability to steal bases) can be useful if he pinch runs for other guys who get on base, especially for a team that seems to play so many close games.

[forphase1]

1 minute ago, spiritof66 said:

I can't speak for others, but to me Matteo's speed is a valuable offensive asset that is reflected only partially in batting statistics. Stealing bases, taking extra bases, distracting pitchers all contribute to scoring runs in ways that don't show up in OBP, SLG, OPS or BA. Even if his starts and ABs are reduced, which is where things seem to be headed, his speed (and ability to steal bases) can be useful if he pinch runs for other guys who get on base, especially for a team that seems to play so many close games.

Yes, but ALL those things you mentioned only show up IF he gets on base, with the exception of pinch running of course.  I think almost everyone supports him being a bench/role player/defensive substitution unless we get a great trade offer.  But to have him continuing to be starting almost every game needs to stop.  I agree he's about perfect for a pinch runner in key situations, and as a great defensive player, though I'm not sure I'd replace Ortiz with him as the defense isn't that much different between the two.  At the end of the day if Mateo can't get on base then his value is greatly diminished...and so should his playing time.  

[Aristotelian]

Just now, spiritof66 said:

I can't speak for others, but to me Matteo's speed is a valuable offensive asset that is reflected only partially in batting statistics. Stealing bases, taking extra bases, distracting pitchers all contribute to scoring runs in ways that don't show up in OBP, SLG, OPS or BA. Even if his starts and ABs are reduced, which is where things seem to be headed, his speed (and ability to steal bases) can be useful if he pinch runs for other guys who get on base, especially for a team that seems to play so many close games.

Prior to his hot start, I thought Mateo would be perfect as a pinch runner/late innings defense guy, maybe starter vs LHP's with Frazier going to the bench. At that time it seemed like Gunnar was poised to replace most of his defensive production but now I am second guessing that. Maybe Ortiz becomes the SS but we don't know if Ortiz can hit any better than Mateo. I think Mateo has to hit rock bottom to force us to give Ortiz a shot. He's getting close. Maybe if he dips below last year's .646 OPS/83 OPS+ (currently down to .705/94).

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:

I think it's become something more than the book being out on him. He's missing fastballs and breaking pitches. He's chasing pitches outside the zone and swinging through mistakes down the middle. It has to be at least partly in his head right now.

 

2 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:

I'm not claiming to be able to diagnose the problem, I just don't think opposing pitchers collectively figured out some secret weakness to exploit. Mateo has seen plenty to hit.

You say you are not claiming to be able to diagnose the problem yet you diagnosed him as having a problem?

We don't actually know these guys.  We don't know what makes them tick what other factors are in play or how they react to various stimuli.  I can seeing it's in his head, it's got to be effecting him mentally, he's pouting.  It's all speculation.

Do you think Elias and Co don't allocate resources to that aspect of play?

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Mateo has hit .107 in the entire month .. 5 hits in May .. i don’t care how good his glove is, if he continues into June at that pace, he will be a bench utility/pinch runner

I think it's time to start transitioning Mateo into a utility player.  I would start by splitting time at SS between Mateo and Ortiz.  I feel that with Ortiz on the team, Vavra is expendable.  Mateo could start working towards getting some time in the OF too.  The highs with Mateo are great, but the lows are just terrible.  Mateo has basically been a zero with the bat for May. 

[Sports Guy]

I will say that it is shocking that Mateo’s OPS is almost under 700. No one could have seen that coming!  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I will say that it is shocking that Mateo’s OPS is almost under 700. No one could have seen that coming!  

The rate of decline is surprising.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The rate of decline is surprising.

100%. I’m joking.

I thought it could go under 700 by the end of the year (or even before then) but even me, as pessimistic as I am about his hitting, would have never thought it would be this bad this quickly.  Definitely could have seen sub 800 by the end of this month but not THIS bad.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Sports Guy

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, SemperFi said:

That's a fair point and it's very difficult to defend Mateo now but speed changes the game.  Pitch patterns change (stretch, accelerated pitch count, better pitches to hit, IF has to cover).  His defense and speed unfortunately give him a long leash.

    

Pinch runner/defensive replacement skills like Billy Hamilton a few years ago.  He doesn't have to hit to steal!  And Gunnar/Urias have positional flexibility to shift around as needed.

20 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Prior to his hot start, I thought Mateo would be perfect as a pinch runner/late innings defense guy, maybe starter vs LHP's with Frazier going to the bench. At that time it seemed like Gunnar was poised to replace most of his defensive production but now I am second guessing that. Maybe Ortiz becomes the SS but we don't know if Ortiz can hit any better than Mateo. I think Mateo has to hit rock bottom to force us to give Ortiz a shot. He's getting close. Maybe if he dips below last year's .646 OPS/83 OPS+ (currently down to .705/94).

The barrier to for Ortiz's entry is pretty low.  Like someone else said, the only reason we're keeping Mateo in the lineup is the hope for a rebound.  Maybe they are waiting on Gunnar's recent improvements to solidify statistically before adding a second rookie to the starting IF squad on the regular, I dunno.  

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Pinch runner/defensive replacement skills like Billy Hamilton a few years ago.  He doesn't have to hit to steal!  And Gunnar/Urias have positional flexibility to shift around as needed.

 

Billy Hamilton has been ~replacement level since 2019.  I thought performance like that was unacceptable?

Edited May 24, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

Mateo's April was the best month by OPS that any Oriole starter had posted in a couple years. 

Mateo's May may be the worst month by OPS that any Oriole starter has posted in years. 

The on/off switch was drastic and sudden.

Thing is, this isn’t anything new.  He did the same thing last year, except the high points were a bit lower than this year’s, and the low points were higher than this year’s.  But, the low points were still extremely low — sub-.500 OPS for 5-6 weeks at a time.   This slump makes those look like a day in the park, except that this one hasn’t reached 5-6 weeks yet.   And I’m praying that it doesn’t.  

[Sports Guy]

The 26th man absolutely allows you to have a Jorge Mateo on the roster. 
 

He has value. There is no doubt about that. To me, that value isn’t as an everyday player but he can do a lot of things that can help a team win.

 

[TopGunnar]

Mounty should be batting 6th

[btdart20]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Billy Hamilton has been ~replacement level since 2019.  I thought performance like that was unacceptable?

I was referring to Billy Hamilton's usage in 2013.  22 PAs but 13 SBs (mostly as a pinch runner).  Maximize what his speed/defense brings while minimizing his weaknesses (hitting/OBP).  Are you in the 'cut Mateo' camp?