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Tyler Wells 2023


Mooreisbetter27

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9 hours ago, Natty said:

The 9 days rest Wells got during the break seems to have messed him up. 

This might have been a valid excuse for the first start after the break.

The reality is, he was very fortunate to have the numbers he did in the first half, while allowing as many HR's as he was.

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It’s funny how quick Wells can go from best SP on the team to the one that needs replaced the most. I think a move to the pen would be good for him. Make a trade, let Wells rest, maybe put him back into the rotation if he’s needed later and he is able to find his groove again. Right now though, hard to trust him. 

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A couple of observations from looking at his Baseball Savant data 2021-2023:

FB average velocity (mph): 95.2--> 93.5--> 92.2

CB average velocity: 78.8--> 76.3 --> 74.0

HardHit% FB: 50% --> 54.9% --> 57%

Pitch usage 2023: FB: 37.2%  Cutter: 20% CU: 18.6% SL: 16.3%  CB: 8%

xwOBA: FB: .337 Cutter: .381 CU:.283  SL: .264  CB: .289

 

So maybe the cutter and 4 seam FB are not effective pitches used in combo. Maybe stop throwing the Cutter and use the SL more? the velocity delta FB:Cutter is (92.5-88.7)= 3.8 mph vs FB:SL (92.5-84) = 8.5 mph. Also Cutter horizontal movement = 4.2 inches vs. SL = 5.9; vertical movement: Cutter = 22.5 inches vs SL = 36.3.

So the Cutter moves less and has a less significant velocity delta compared to the SL. This may explain the difference in the Whiff % (19.5 - 26) and xSLG (.554 - .323).

Now I do not have the data to compare pre vs post AllStar break. But there is a bit of a signal here. 

FB velocity is down in correspondence to IP being up.

Cutter might be less effective than the SL yet is used more often.

Just my uneducated stab on what might be wrong with Tyler. 

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Interesting.  He can prove he’s healthy and/or make the mechanical adjustments in the minors.  Could be the pitching coach at Bowie, their schedule, or ease of adding him to that rotation.   The timing is interesting as far as trading for a starter to take his place.  I like the fact that they weren’t going to cost the team any more losses while he tried to figure things out.  He wasn’t giving his team a chance.  Still think we find out about an injury here.   I don’t buy that all of a sudden his mechanics or “mindset” just isn’t right.

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6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Interesting.  He can prove he’s healthy and/or make the mechanical adjustments in the minors.  Could be the pitching coach at Bowie, their schedule, or ease of adding him to that rotation.   The timing is interesting as far as trading for a starter to take his place.  I like the fact that they weren’t going to cost the team any more losses while he tried to figure things out.  He wasn’t giving his team a chance.  Still think we find out about an injury here.   I don’t buy that all of a sudden his mechanics or “mindset” just isn’t right.

Maybe they plan to rest him for a week or two.

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Bloodless arbitrage - Wells entered this year with 2.000 years of service.

I concur he appears incapable of helping the ballclub based on very recent results, but this deep a cut catches me a little by surprise.      

Thursday afternoon in Toronto - Irvin, McFarland or an Oriole to be named later.     At some point the season's remainder grows short enough bullpen games to the finish become possible, if Elias goes heavy RP at expense of SP next 51 hours.

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