Trading for a rental vs a longer term asset

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Jordan Montgomery makes sense. 1.5 seasons left until FA. The much needed LH SP. 

Plus it would be cool to see Yankees fans seethe over yet another ex-Yankees player tearing it up with the Orioles.

Edited June 27, 2023 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[Aristotelian]

I'm fine with a rental depending on the price. I seriously think we are one or two pieces from a World Series run. Fangraphs now has us 70% to make the playoffs and 2.4% to win the WS. 2.4% doesn't sound like a lot but that puts us in the range of the legit contenders. A rental could make good sense for us. If the cost isn't too much, we would have plenty of depth left over to keep building for the future and pursue additional trades next year.

A controlled guy will bring more value but also cost more. 

[NCRaven]

Grayson Rodriguez's failure to come close to his potential this year has been a huge disappointment.  This discussion wouldn't be necessary if he was producing at the ML level.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Grayson Rodriguez's failure to come close to his potential this year has been a huge disappointment.  This discussion wouldn't be necessary if he was producing at the ML level.

I disagree. That’s irrelevant to my question.

[NCRaven]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I disagree. That’s irrelevant to my question.

Assuming that Grayson is "that" guy in 2024, you're right.  But, if he was already that guy right now, or showed that he could still be in 2023, the search for a top arm wouldn't be so urgent for this season.  Of course, Irvin doing what he's doing hasn't helped either.  Those were two guys we were counting on to be parts of this rotation.

[ThisIsBirdland]

16 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Assuming that Grayson is "that" guy in 2024, you're right.  But, if he was already that guy right now, or showed that he could still be in 2023, the search for a top arm wouldn't be so urgent for this season.  Of course, Irvin doing what he's doing hasn't helped either.  Those were two guys we were counting on to be parts of this rotation.

Wells has also exceeded expectations, Bradish has hit the upper end of his expectations curve, and Kremer/Gibson are right in line with what was expected and needed from a #4/#5. Nothing has really changed from the off-season when we thought we needed a true #1 to be a complete team. Counting on GRod to come in as a rookie and do that just wasn't realistic.

[Just Regular]

I can see some similarities in the dynamics of Carlos Rodon and Grayson Rodriguez's 2023's.    If anything good happens in the fall, no one will care anything about the terrible beginnings.

Jordan Montgomery throws against the Astros tonight, to whet AL contender's appetites.     Deadline is 5 weeks and 90 minutes away.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

Assuming that Grayson is "that" guy in 2024, you're right.  But, if he was already that guy right now, or showed that he could still be in 2023, the search for a top arm wouldn't be so urgent for this season.  Of course, Irvin doing what he's doing hasn't helped either.  Those were two guys we were counting on to be parts of this rotation.

The need would still be there because of the likely innings limits on Wells and GRod, the questionable statcast nunbers of Kremer and Gibson and the unreliability of Irvin.

 

[EddeeEddee]

The O's could offer Dean Kremer or Cole Irvin for a rental, or one of those two with 2-3 Top 20 prospects for an even better rental or a pitcher with an extra year or so left.  Though I doubt the O's would trade Kremer because then the team is just opening another hole.

Generally, I don't like the idea of trading pitching, even a Cole Irvin at this point, because it's so hard to tell which pitcher is going to turn things around and who is going to suddenly lose it.  But those two could perhaps have more value than many of us realize, especially to a team like the Cardinals who are probably going to want pitching in return.

[Explosivo]

Personally, I think we go with a reliever option. It'd be far cheaper and we a couple of guys waiting in the wings to fulfill those needed SP roles. Povich has looked good for example and we still have Rodriguez and Hall waiting in the wings. The need for this current team seems to be at reliever. We struck out with Givens in my opinion and Tate has been hurt. I wouldn't mind seeing how Charles does and trying to fill in the gaps with minor leaguers that have faired well. Still though, it would be very nice and cheap to go after a reliever even if it were a rental provided we don't trade any of our talent that are in the top 100 or on the fringe. If that deal can get done, then I'm all for it. I doubt that deal gets gone however and Elias keeps his eyes on the longevity of the team and window of opportunity moving forward. 

 

We are doing really well but I don't think Elias sacrifices the future to make this year a World Series bound team. Do we have the talent to get there? Of course we do. I just don't think Elias would be willing to sacrifice the future of this club. 

Think for a moment what a bonafide lefty starter would cost. Think about how much of the needle that moves this club. We are already at 60+% chance to make the playoffs. That's good, but he's thinking long term, as he should be.

Now if one falls in our lap for a player that is likely logjammed at his position, then well, he will make that move. I just think we rely on our player development and ready a kid to help out the bullpen internally. My guy is Charles.

[FlipTheBird]

12 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't see Cease costing that much to be honest. He has looked very mediocre this year and does not go deeper into games, which makes last year look a flash in the pan scenario.

I know that some posters/people tried to label me as the president of the Dylan Cease fan club, but to be honest I wouldn't even want him now. He hasn't been very good this year.

This is just...incorrect. With 2 years of control beyond 2023, his pedigree and what he flashed last year, Dylan Cease is going to take a heckuva package for any team to acquire. I would imagine that for the O's to land him the offer would have to start with one of Cowser or Mayo, and then have several other pieces.

[FlipTheBird]

9 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I can see some similarities in the dynamics of Carlos Rodon and Grayson Rodriguez's 2023's.    If anything good happens in the fall, no one will care anything about the terrible beginnings.

Jordan Montgomery throws against the Astros tonight, to whet AL contender's appetites.     Deadline is 5 weeks and 90 minutes away.

Montgomery is 100% getting traded... and as a rental there's a ceiling on what he'll cost, but given that he could well be the best SP for sale this year, the Cardinals will not lack for suitors. So he's not going to be acquired for anyone's spare parts, either.

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

This is just...incorrect. With 2 years of control beyond 2023, his pedigree and what he flashed last year, Dylan Cease is going to take a heckuva package for any team to acquire. I would imagine that for the O's to land him the offer would have to start with one of Cowser or Mayo, and then have several other pieces.

Cease was great last year, not so much this year, and nothing before last year.

I honestly would rather have Eduardo a Rodriguez for this season (especially if he is anything close to the pitcher that he was pre-injury).

If that’s the cost for Cease, that’s a very HARD PASS for me!

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

Montgomery is 100% getting traded... and as a rental there's a ceiling on what he'll cost, but given that he could well be the best SP for sale this year, the Cardinals will not lack for suitors. So he's not going to be acquired for anyone's spare parts, either.

I would MUCH RATHER have Eduardo Rodriguez than Jordan Montgomery. It’s not even close like AT ALL. Especially given their season’s this year. Rodriguez was pitching like a Cy Young pre-injury.

Of course, all of this assumes that we are going the rental route.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I would MUCH RATHER have Eduardo Rodriguez than Jordan Montgomery. It’s not even close like AT ALL. Especially given their season’s this year. Rodriguez was pitching like a Cy Young pre-injury.

Of course, all of this assumes that we are going the rental route.

Eduardo Rodriguez has too much uncertainty and risk for Elias. Meaning his contract option and injury. 
 

The risk adverse play, and less expensive route, would be to trade for Jordan Montgomery, and convert Grayson to the bullpen in August. Grayson gets to learn how to get hitters out in the pen and saves some face due to his innings limit. 
 

Also, Irvin is not done here. Solely because the value of having a lefty in the rotation, with our wall, has been demonstrated greatly. I think we’ll see Elias maneuver to make the rotation more left handed for next year to fully take advantage of OPACY. 
 

Jordan Montgomery would be a heck of a matchup LH SP in OPACY in the playoffs.