Hypothetical deadline trades - package pulse check

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Hall has very little value at the moment.  I'm talking two 17 year old Dominican level value.  Mountcastle's value is also the lowest it has ever been, particularly with the Vertigo issue. 

Would you assign much value to either one of them right now if you were at the other side of the table?

I think it depends on what my scouts feel is the issue with Hall and how much you buy into the batted ball stats from Mountcastle. 
 

I think Hall has a lot more value than you think he does.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it depends on what my scouts feel is the issue with Hall and how much you buy into the batted ball stats from Mountcastle. 
 

I think Hall has a lot more value than you think he does.

I think you'd have to be able to get in and see and personally evaluate Hall before you could make any sort of determination and that just doesn't happen.  Right now he's a 25 year old with poor command and worrisome drop in velocity. 

If the O's can get him out there firing at 98 before the deadline, that changes the math.

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 7/3/2023 at 7:34 AM, emmett16 said:

Has a team in first place and planning on a title run ever traded their Ace?  Can’t say I remember that happening, but maybe this is the year it does. 

 

On 7/3/2023 at 7:58 AM, emmett16 said:

You think that @ 28 y/o the 101 ip this year Burnes has pitched is more indicative of future success than his previous 515?  I don’t think the Brewers or other MLB execs see it that way. 
 

I just don’t see a team in a playoff hunt moving a guy who has been one of the best pitches in baseball the last few years and who is still 28.  

 

On 7/3/2023 at 8:00 AM, glenn__davis said:

I do agree that Burnes seems like an unlikely target and the Goldschmidt deal is more likely.  

 

On 7/3/2023 at 8:04 AM, emmett16 said:

He was a guy I wanted to target at beginning of the year if Brewers struggled.  That hasn’t been the case and they are looking to make a push.  I’d give up some talent to get him (and admit the package likely isn’t far off) but just don’t see any world where Milwaukee does a deal.  Even with a massive over pay they leave a huge hole on a team that’s tryintg to win a title.  Their future fortunes essentially depend on him turning things around and becoming dominant again.  

I agree that he's unlikely to be moved at this point, which I acknowledged in the OP.

I still thought it would be helpful to use him as the reference target pitcher for this exercise given that he's  the exact right profile I think the team should be targeting (clear TOR SP w/ 1.5 years control). If we all get a sense of expected package for this archetypical target, then you adjust accordingly for guys who are better/worse or have more/less years of control.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 7/3/2023 at 9:26 AM, bpilktree67 said:

He wants to win though and one of reasons he went to the Cardinals.  That has not worked out and if you look at their team it is not going to happen anytime soon.  They are dead last and have basically nothing in their farm system.  The Cardinals need to do a full tear down and rebuild from scratch.,  He is not going to want to play for a team that will be fighting just to stay out of the basement the next year plus especially with him aging and never being on a winning team.  

Nothing in their farm system?  I bslieve Jordan Walker was in the running for the #1 prospect rating this spring.  Not as deep as the O's but they have a lot ofposition prospects.

[ShoelesJoe]

Two starting pitchers I think the Orioles should be looking at:

JP Sears of the Oakland A's. 27 year old LH starter only 1-6 on the season (17 GS), but has a .224 OB against and a 1.05 WHIP. His H/A splits aren't too far apart so his stats aren't just a product pitching half his games in the Coliseum. Pre-arb making just $700,000. A's are obviously out of it and in full tear down mode, so Sears should be available cheap. Maybe a couple of B prospects (if that). 

Justin Steele of the Cubs. 27 year old LH starter putting up TOR numbers 9-2 2.56 ERA 1.06 WHIP.  Like Sears he's pre-arb making $700,000. Cubs are 7 games out in the NL Central, and 6 games out of the WC. One bad week and they could be sellers. Steele would probably cost us a couple of top 100s though, maybe Kjerstad + Ortiz or something similar. 

[tntoriole]

On 7/2/2023 at 11:03 PM, BohKnowsBmore said:

Given that the O's are very much in contention this year, I thought it might be interesting to do a quick pulse check on how the OH feels about the hypothetical trade packages below, one for a frontline starter, the other for a MOO bat. I know that Tony and the mods try to keep the main board clean of a bunch of random trade proposals, but I want to do something a little different. What follows is a bit of an "over/under" of sorts with the goal of getting a general sense of what this board thinks it will take to get certain pieces and how everyone feels about giving up said packages. On that note, I don't claim that these are the exact right packages that could or would be exchanged, but rather a chance to assess whether the proposed packages are wildly off in either direction and where folks' collective heads are at in terms of what we should be prepared to part with in general.

For this exercise, I have created hypothetical trade packages for two players, one pitcher and one batter, that each meet a potential need for the club and are under control beyond this year (both hitting FA following the 2024 season). While the pitcher (Burnes) is not likely on the block at the moment given his team's current spot in the standings, I felt that he was the best test case for this exercise given his profile and 1.5 years of control remaining. Finally, I constructed these hypothetical prospect/player packages to be mutually exclusive, but there's no assumption that these deals are connected in any way. 

 

Hypothetical Trade #1: Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

As mentioned above, he's unlikely available, but he represents exactly what I think the O's will / should be looking to add at the deadline, a proven TOR pitcher with controllable year(s) beyond 2023. He would easily slot in to the front end of the O's rotation and would unquestionably be part of a shortened playoff rotation (i.e., I don't think a #4 type starter moves the needle in any meaningful way).

Proposed Package:
- Cade Povich, LHP
- Connor Norby, 2B
- Cesar Prieto, IF
- Dean Kremer, RHP (MLB)

Package Rationale:
Povich is the obvious headliner to the deal as an electric, albeit inconsistent, LHP who is on most top-100 lists. Norby adds to the package as a guy who is in the back portion of a lot of top-100 lists (not necessarily unanimous nor as high as Povich). Prieto is another top-15-ish type prospect with a pretty solid floor as a utility IF who can make contact to help round out the prospects in the deal. Kremer is a bit of a sweetener who also clears a 40-man and rotation spot for Burnes. I know a lot of folks don't like him, but he's had MLB success last year and has elevated his velocity this season; even if he doesn't take another next step forward, he's shown he's at least a competent-ish #5 / swing-man, but a team that's selling could be interested in letting him continue to see if he can unlock a little something extra for at least this season.

 

Hypothetical Trade #2: Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals

(EDIT / Note: I didn't realize that you could no longer have multiple, individual polls in a post; I had already typed this whole thing out, so figured I would keep it; poll above only relates to trade #1, but feel free to respond to this one below)

1B isn't a commonly-cited need for this team, but these past few games have made me feel a bit like this team could stand to add some additional thump to the middle of the lineup. Goldy checks all of the boxes: power, strong OBP, and good defense at 1B. While this team has been burned in the past by allocating resources to star first basemen, nobody has a more proven, consistent track record than Goldschmidt and this team could use a stud RHB. Added bonus that he's under control next season, so this isn't a rental only situation. 

Proposed Package:
- Joey Ortiz, SS
- Chayce McDermott, RHP
- Juan Nunez, RHP
- Ryan Mountcastle, 1B (MLB)

Package Rationale:
Similar structure to the deal above with Oritz as the headliner (and perhaps a bit more widely/highly ranked than Povich). McDermott and Nunez are a bit less well-regarded than their counterparts in the deal above, but they are intriguing prospects nonetheless. Finally, while Mountcastle has struggled this season, he has clearly shown flashes of being a plus MLB power bat. A struggling club like St. Louis could slot him right into the 1B role (replacing Goldy) and give him a chance to see if he can reclaim any semblance of his prior success at the MLB level.  Similar to Kremer, the proposal here isn't that he's getting the deal done on his own by any stretch, rather that he's a potential pot sweetner that the right team might be interested in when evaluating various prospect packages.

 

Some additional notes:

• It may be obvious, but as part of this exercise I was interested to see if we could construct interesting trade packages without including our top, top guys
• Gets too complicated to include above, but I think Ramon Urias could be an interesting portion of a three-team deal to net additional prospects that could sweeten offers such as the ones above

Burnes sure but Brewers will not do that.  No to Goldschmidt 

[clapdiddy]

4 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Burnes sure but Brewers will not do that.  No to Goldschmidt 

I may be in the minority, but I'd love to have Goldschmidt here.

[foxfield]

On 7/3/2023 at 9:06 AM, lifelongbirdfan said:

I'm not sure.  Just because we have a top farm system doesn't mean a team is guaranteed to get one of our best 5-7 prospects.  While a team with only 2 Top-100 prospects will be forced to trade one of them since they have nothing else to offer, I am hopeful we can deal from our excess like Norby, Prieto, Ortiz.  Think of the Dodgers a few years back, they chose who they wanted to hang on to and didn't give up their top guys.   For Machado, we couldn't land their untouchable guys.  Really, only to get Betts in his prime did they give Verdugo. My point is, I think we should shop our excess and hold the top guys for any rentals. I would only give up one of the studs for multiple years of an ace. 

I agree we can make moves and not include our top prospects. We didn’t get the top prospects from the Dodgers for Manny. 
 

If we go for a player that is not a rental that will be different. 

[Aristotelian]

36 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Two starting pitchers I think the Orioles should be looking at:

JP Sears of the Oakland A's. 27 year old LH starter only 1-6 on the season (17 GS), but has a .224 OB against and a 1.05 WHIP. His H/A splits aren't too far apart so his stats aren't just a product pitching half his games in the Coliseum. Pre-arb making just $700,000. A's are obviously out of it and in full tear down mode, so Sears should be available cheap. Maybe a couple of B prospects (if that). 

Justin Steele of the Cubs. 27 year old LH starter putting up TOR numbers 9-2 2.56 ERA 1.06 WHIP.  Like Sears he's pre-arb making $700,000. Cubs are 7 games out in the NL Central, and 6 games out of the WC. One bad week and they could be sellers. Steele would probably cost us a couple of top 100s though, maybe Kjerstad + Ortiz or something similar. 

Why would either of those teams trade a controlled young pitcher? That is the type of guy they will want to build around.  

[ShoelesJoe]

22 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Why would either of those teams trade a controlled young pitcher? That is the type of guy they will want to build around.  

Neither is “young” in baseball years. And good cost controlled pitchers are traded all the time for the right package. You just have to offer that package. 

[Aristotelian]

28 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Neither is “young” in baseball years. And good cost controlled pitchers are traded all the time for the right package. You just have to offer that package. 

What is a comparable trade where a rebuilding team has traded a pitcher comparable to Sears or Steele? Oakland just traded for Sears a year ago. Would be like if we decided to trade Bradish last year. 

[ShoelesJoe]

45 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What is a comparable trade where a rebuilding team has traded a pitcher comparable to Sears or Steele? Oakland just traded for Sears a year ago. Would be like if we decided to trade Bradish last year. 

A year ago the Mariners got pitcher Luis Castillo from the Reds in exchange for four prospects. During the off season the Twins got pitcher Pablo López for Luis Arraez + two prospects. It's ridiculous to state that the only pitchers who can be traded are old or expensive or rentals. Those guys are traded more often sure, because they're cheaper to acquire. But any pitcher can be had for the right price, especially if their team is out of the playoff picture, which Oakland is, and the Cubs close to being so. Trading for guys like Steele and Sears is just a matter of calculating a different cost / benefit analysis than getting somebody who's a rental. 

[clapdiddy]

5 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

A year ago the Mariners got pitcher Luis Castillo from the Reds in exchange for four prospects. During the off season the Twins got pitcher Pablo López for Luis Arraez + two prospects. It's ridiculous to state that the only pitchers who can be traded are old or expensive or rentals. Those guys are traded more often sure, because they're cheaper to acquire. But any pitcher can be had for the right price, especially if their team is out of the playoff picture, which Oakland is, and the Cubs close to being so. Trading for guys like Steele and Sears is just a matter of calculating a different cost / benefit analysis than getting somebody who's a rental. 

I would guess that Steele would require a hefty return.  He's having a great season thus far, and the Cubs don't need to move him.  He could be a guy they build around.  

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

A year ago the Mariners got pitcher Luis Castillo from the Reds in exchange for four prospects. During the off season the Twins got pitcher Pablo López for Luis Arraez + two prospects. It's ridiculous to state that the only pitchers who can be traded are old or expensive or rentals. Those guys are traded more often sure, because they're cheaper to acquire. But any pitcher can be had for the right price, especially if their team is out of the playoff picture, which Oakland is, and the Cubs close to being so. Trading for guys like Steele and Sears is just a matter of calculating a different cost / benefit analysis than getting somebody who's a rental. 

Castillo came with 1+ years of control and Lopez two years. Those pitchers were not rentals but they are in no way comparable to Steele and Sears. 

[interloper]

I don't really buy that we're going to land an ace, but if we do, it basically has to involve Povich plus one of our young ML SP as a starting point, and then 2-3 more prospects, 2 of whom will be top-100 guys.