orioles 2023 draft tracker 2023 Draft Tracker

[Obando]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

If they don’t sign Baumeister at this point you’d have to think they had a miscommunication on his number before the draft or his camp changed it.  I have to believe they had an idea what it would take before they selected him and have that amount available to offer.   It’s either just last minute playing chicken to the deadline on the actual bonus amount or trying to get Baumeister plus one or both of Folet and Ritchie into the fold as well.

I’ll be happy to just get Baumeister signed at whatever it takes but definitely a little icing on the cake with the other two.

I think it’s probably a matter of Baumeister knows he has the leverage to go back to school if he wants, so his agent is probably going to drag this out until the last day to see if the O’s are willing to give him his number, but ultimately, I can’t see him not signing unless something came up on the physical like it did with McLean last year.  
 

There’s no doubt that Baumeister is going to need an overslot deal to sign, it’s just a matter of how much overslot it’s going to take while also giving the O’s a chance to sign either Forret or Ritchie (or both).  I’m sure the O’s are trying to manage the bonus enough to get all 3 of them signed, but when push comes to shove, it’s most important to get Baumeister signed and then hope you have enough to sign at least 1 of the other 2.  I would hope that all 3 of them have taken physicals already, so that if/when an agreement is reached with Baumeister, they can quickly get deals finalized with at least one of the other 2 by the signing deadline and not have to worry about them having them take physicals before it can become official.  

[Tony-OH]

On 7/21/2023 at 8:23 AM, RZNJ said:

Btw, interesting that the Orioles announced signing their top ten rounds signings absent Baumeister but conveniently omit the bonuses of the underslots in 8 and 9, and the 10th rounder Etzel.    Something tells me they don’t want Baumeisters camp to know what their spending limit is.

Saw that as well. These last signings are always a little tricky and take time.

[RZNJ]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Saw that as well. These last signings are always a little tricky and take time.

Understood but very few teams still have unsigned picks in the top 5 rounds.  I think there are only 3-4 in that category and we have one of them.  I’d pretty shocked if they don’t sign Baumeister.   

[baltfan]

I would be quite surprised if Baumeister doesn't get done.  He would be coming into an organization that is definitely on the rise and also seems weak at his position.  If I were a high school infielder, for example, I could see being reluctant to sign for anything but top dollar since it looks like a lot of the positions are blocked.  

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

I would be quite surprised if Baumeister doesn't get done.  He would be coming into an organization that is definitely on the rise and also seems weak at his position.  If I were a high school infielder, for example, I could see being reluctant to sign for anything but top dollar since it looks like a lot of the positions are blocked.  

If I were a high school infielder and I wasn't hell-bent on going to college, there's not another organization I'd want to go to right now. They will develop him as well as any other org. You worry about your ML status once you're good enough to make it there, and the O's are the team to go to for that.

[baltfan]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

If I were a high school infielder and I wasn't hell-bent on going to college, there's not another organization I'd want to go to right now. They will develop him as well as any other org. You worry about your ML status once you're good enough to make it there, and the O's are the team to go to for that.

You can use that logic, but all of these guys think that they will succeed.  They are most concerned about getting unfairly blocked and being in the minors longer than they should.  I am not saying the calculus is correct.

[LookinUp]

6 minutes ago, baltfan said:

You can use that logic, but all of these guys think that they will succeed.  They are most concerned about getting unfairly blocked and being in the minors longer than they should.  I am not saying the calculus is correct.

I think it's a fair concern. Just look at Joey Ortiz right now.

That said, after watching this org for 20+ years before Elias, I personally value going to a better org than just looking for a clear path. 

[AnythingO's]

So the deadline is 5 PM tomorrow (7/25) correct? Is it unusual for a Baumeister-like signing to go down to the wire with no news or speculation? Another 4 yr SO pitcher at pick 61 went for +$200K over slot ($1.5/1.3M). The only guys getting big plus ups as the HS pitchers at 71-72 (WAS-OAK) getting  $2.6M and 3.0M versus slot of $1M. Does he really have that much leverage being picked at 63 vs ranked at 167?

Edited July 24, 2023 by AnythingO's
correction

[RZNJ]

Most high school players not named Jackson Holliday are going to take a minimum of 4 years in the minors.   Many more will take 5-7 years.   Worry about which ML player has your current position blocked is a fool’s errand.     If you’re good, you’ll play somewhere, for some team.   Take the money and play if you so choose.

[RZNJ]

Percentage of outcomes

1. 40% sign Baumeister and one of Forret/Ritchie

2. 30%  sign Baumeister only

3. 25% sign Baumeister, Forret, and Ritchie

4. 5% strike out on all three

[RZNJ]

Jim Callis

@jimcallisMLB

·

59m

As of now, the max teams can pay @MLBDraft top-10-rders if they go to full 5% overage. Deadline: 5 pm ET. W. Jenkins, Min 1st: $7,861,480 J. Baumeister, Bal supp 2nd: $2,431,840 J. Wiggins, ChC supp 2nd: $1,401,600 M. Ahuna, SF 4th: $601,720 D. Campbell, LAD supp 4th: $602,830
 

No way Baumeister turns down that or he would have already declared that he was going back to school.   O’s certainly don’t want to give him all of it.   Going down to the wire.

 

[btdart20]

58 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Jim Callis

@jimcallisMLB

·

59m

As of now, the max teams can pay @MLBDraft top-10-rders if they go to full 5% overage. Deadline: 5 pm ET. W. Jenkins, Min 1st: $7,861,480 J. Baumeister, Bal supp 2nd: $2,431,840 J. Wiggins, ChC supp 2nd: $1,401,600 M. Ahuna, SF 4th: $601,720 D. Campbell, LAD supp 4th: $602,830
 

No way Baumeister turns down that or he would have already declared that he was going back to school.   O’s certainly don’t want to give him all of it.   Going down to the wire.

 

$2.4m is back of 1st round/comp round money.  I think the odds of signing for less than the $1.5m fellow sophomore pitcher Tredwell signed for is thin though.

It would unfairly raise the bar for my expectations for him if he takes it all.

[Obando]

22 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

$2.4m is back of 1st round/comp round money.  I think the odds of signing for less than the $1.5m fellow sophomore pitcher Tredwell signed for is thin though.

It would unfairly raise the bar for my expectations for him if he takes it all.

Baumeister’s agent is probably telling the Orioles that he thinks his client can improve his stock and get late 1st-early 2nd round money if he goes back to school, and holding out for that kind of money now in order to eschew the chance to prove it.  But when push comes to shove, I can’t see them walking away from any offer of at least $1.4-1.5M, since all it takes is an injury or poor performance to kill his value if he goes back to school (plus he’ll be 22 years old with less leverage next year).  I think his agent just wants to make the O’s sweat a little bit to get the most money they can before he agrees to terms.  Deadlines usually get deals done, so I think it happens unless he failed a physical, in which case we likely will find out about it eventually if he doesn’t sign (similar to what happened with Nolan McLean last year).

[Conway12]

Michael Forret signed per Jim Callis. $450K, $300K against the bonus pool. 

I couldn't figure out to embed tweets because I'm a dummy. But here's a link.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Conway12

[RZNJ]

Ok, Baumeister.  We offered over 2M and you said no.  So we just gave 300K of our extra money to Forret.  You can sign now for 2.1M or another 500K goes to Ritchie and you’ll get a take it or leave it 1.6M offer to decide by 5.   The first domino just fell.  O’s make the first move.  Starting to have doubts that Baumeister gets done.