orioles 2023 draft tracker 2023 Draft Tracker

[Getz]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Getz]

 

 

 

 

 

[Mooreisbetter27]

Everyone either slot or under slot so far. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Everyone either slot or under slot so far. 

Across all the signings it seems like the compiled a solid chunk of savings. Only question is whether they all go to Baumeister or they can pull a rabbit out of the hat for one of the late overslots?

[Mooreisbetter27]

1 minute ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Across all the signings it seems like the compiled a solid chunk of savings. Only question is whether they all go to Baumeister or they can pull a rabbit out of the hat for one of the late overslots?

I think the 3 late rounders have already said they’re going to school. I think Baumeister has to be the big overslot Guy.

[Otter]

Looks like by my count we have everyone except the 4 tough signs signed.  And it also looks like minor savings for a number of picks so far.  At this point, doesn't seem to be enough for the two high school kids, and definitely not Witt.  Have to imagine the savings go to Baumeister and then they call it a day.

[Sydnor]

19 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Across all the signings it seems like the compiled a solid chunk of savings. Only question is whether they all go to Baumeister or they can pull a rabbit out of the hat for one of the late overslots?

My math is always questionable, but if I did it correctly, the reported signings have been for $370,500 less than the total of the assigned slots. I suspect they’ll get Baumeister and Forret done unless something shows up on a physical.

[86this]

11 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

My math is always questionable, but if I did it correctly, the reported signings have been for $370,500 less than the total of the assigned slots. I suspect they’ll get Baumeister and Forret done unless something shows up on a physical.

Yup, that's what I have also.

[Br10n]

The Orioles have signed the following players from the 2023 First-Year Player Draft:

RHP Kiefer Lord (Rd. 3, No. 86 overall)

OF Tavian Josenberger (Rd. 3, No. 100 overall)

RHP Levi Wells (Rd. 4, No. 118 overall)

OF Jake Cunningham (Rd. 5, No. 154 overall)

RHP Jacob Cravey (Rd. 6, 181 overall)

RHP Teddy Sharkey (Rd. 7, No. 211 overall)

RHP Braxton Bragg (Rd. 8, No. 241 overall)

RHP Zach Fruit (Rd. 9, No. 271 overall)

OF Matthew Etzel (Rd. 10, No. 301 overall)

RHP Nestor German (Rd. 11, No. 331 overall)

RHP Blake Money (Rd. 12, No. 361 overall)

LHP Riley Cooper (Rd. 13, No. 391 overall)

C Cole Urman (Rd. 16, No. 481 overall)

RHP Zane Barnhart (Rd. 17, No. 511 overall)

INF Jalen Vasquez (Rd. 20, No. 601 overall)

 

The Orioles have now signed 17 selections from the 2023 Draft

[btdart20]

Only Baumeister, Forret, Witt, Ritchie, and Lott are outstanding.

If the savings above are accurate:  $370,500

5% overage (limit before draft penalty):  $526,740

Baumeister's slot is $1.24m.  Alonzo Tredwell (drafted 2.61) is also a SO P and signed for $1.5m.  Based on pre-draft rankings and actual draft spot, I think Baumeister will sign for less than that.  I'll pencil him in for $1.4m and base the rest of this exercise on that assumption.

Then that moves the slot savings to $210,500 + $526,740 to allocate to the rest (+ $150,000 for each contract) for 4 players after round 10.  

Toss out Witt because he's not signing for less than $1m. 

That leaves 3 guys to share the $737,240 pie.  Straight math says $245,745 + $150,000 gives each a $395,745 contract.  I don't think that gets any of them either.

They could divide the $737,240 in half (add the $150k) and put a $518,000 contract on the table for the first 2 to sign.  Is the enough to convince 2 of them?  Forret maybe.  But not Ritchie and Lott IMO.

Another option is lumping it all together for all 3 of those guys for a $887,240 contract and the first one to sign gets it.  I'm not sure that convinces Ritchie or Lott either, but it's plausible.

 

Tinfoil hat time:  Could the Ritchie and Lott drafts be smoke screens for opposing teams?  Meaning, they aren't "our types" but close enough to put others off our competitive edge analytics trails?

 

[RZNJ]

41 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Only Baumeister, Forret, Witt, Ritchie, and Lott are outstanding.

If the savings above are accurate:  $370,500

5% overage (limit before draft penalty):  $526,740

Baumeister's slot is $1.24m.  Alonzo Tredwell (drafted 2.61) is also a SO P and signed for $1.5m.  Based on pre-draft rankings and actual draft spot, I think Baumeister will sign for less than that.  I'll pencil him in for $1.4m and base the rest of this exercise on that assumption.

Then that moves the slot savings to $210,500 + $526,740 to allocate to the rest (+ $150,000 for each contract) for 4 players after round 10.  

Toss out Witt because he's not signing for less than $1m. 

That leaves 3 guys to share the $737,240 pie.  Straight math says $245,745 + $150,000 gives each a $395,745 contract.  I don't think that gets any of them either.

They could divide the $737,240 in half (add the $150k) and put a $518,000 contract on the table for the first 2 to sign.  Is the enough to convince 2 of them?  Forret maybe.  But not Ritchie and Lott IMO.

Another option is lumping it all together for all 3 of those guys for a $887,240 contract and the first one to sign gets it.  I'm not sure that convinces Ritchie or Lott either, but it's plausible.

 

Tinfoil hat time:  Could the Ritchie and Lott drafts be smoke screens for opposing teams?  Meaning, they aren't "our types" but close enough to put others off our competitive edge analytics trails?

 

I think your tinfoil hat isn’t working.   I think Lott and Witt have made social media comments that they are not signing.  I assume offers were made.   Maybe not.   I’m pretty certain the two HS guys fit their model.   Until the 26th and the smoke clears it’s difficult to ascertain if they had a workable strategy for signing all top 10 rounds and the 4 potential overslots after 10.   I assumed they’d land at least one of the two HS players but not looking good.   I don’t believe in the smoke screen theory. Lol

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think your tinfoil hat isn’t working.   I think Lott and Witt have made social media comments that they are not signing.  I assume offers were made.   Maybe not.   I’m pretty certain the two HS guys fit their model.   Until the 26th and the smoke clears it’s difficult to ascertain if they had a workable strategy for signing all top 10 rounds and the 4 potential overslots after 10.   I assumed they’d land at least one of the two HS players but not looking good.   I don’t believe in the smoke screen theory. Lol

Haha, me either on the smoke screen.  I was wrong on my hope of signing a good chunk of these guy under-slot and allowing us to make a better run at the other guys. 

I think Witt is definitely going to college.  I saw Lott's comments too and given his leverage, I think the odds of convincing him otherwise is pretty low.  I'm fairly confident Forret will sign if things play out like I think.  But I suspect they like Ritchie's upside more than Forret's and are holding out to see how Baumeister plays out.

But to reach the magic $1m marker that might convince Ritchie, we need to land Baumeister under his slot value.  I don't think that will happen.

[Sydnor]

6 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Haha, me either on the smoke screen.  I was wrong on my hope of signing a good chunk of these guy under-slot and allowing us to make a better run at the other guys. 

I think Witt is definitely going to college.  I saw Lott's comments too and given his leverage, I think the odds of convincing him otherwise is pretty low.  I'm fairly confident Forret will sign if things play out like I think.  But I suspect they like Ritchie's upside more than Forret's and are holding out to see how Baumeister plays out.

But to reach the magic $1m marker that might convince Ritchie, we need to land Baumeister under his slot value.  I don't think that will happen.

I think Ritchie was the back up plan if something went wrong with a physical, similar to how Carter Young was the back up last year when McLean had an issue pop up on his physical. I doubt he’ll sign absent something like that happening, but I hope I’m wrong because he has some really nice tools.

[btdart20]

10 hours ago, Sydnor said:

I think Ritchie was the back up plan if something went wrong with a physical, similar to how Carter Young was the back up last year when McLean had an issue pop up on his physical. I doubt he’ll sign absent something like that happening, but I hope I’m wrong because he has some really nice tools.

The slot money for the first 10 rounds (i.e. from McLean/Baumeister) is pulled from the bucket if they don't sign.  Which means they have less to work with in rounds 11-20 (i.e. Young/Ritchie).  If Baumeister doesn't sign, then the total bonus pool ($10m+) is reduced by his $1.24m slot amount.  Ultimately bringing the total pool to $9m-ish.  If Baumeister doesn't sign, then no way we can sign Ritchie.

But yeah, the strategy of having a late round guy to throw money at is sound.

[btdart20]

@Sydnor - BTW, I enjoy reading your comments about guys at Norfolk.  Seeing guys in person is huge and you seem to be a credible in-person source!  Thanks for that.