Thoughts on deep playoff run?

[Sports Guy]

Everyone is excited about where the team is right now but what are your realistic feelings about  the Os chances of a deep run in the playoffs?

And how can those feelings change between and the start of the playoffs?

Edited July 13, 2023 by Sports Guy

[RVAOsFan]

At the start of the year I would have been happy if we made the playoffs.  At this point I will be disappointed if we don't win a playoff series.  What we do at the trade deadline will determine how serious we are about going "deep".

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

At the start of the year I would have been happy if we made the playoffs.  At this point I will be disappointed if we don't win a playoff series.  What we do at the trade deadline will determine how serious we are about going "deep".

So right now, I believe I saw we would be playing Toronto. That’s a toss up series imo.

[clapdiddy]

I feel like this team is just as good as any other team in baseball right now.   They hung with the Braves, Rays, Yankees and other tough opponents.   The question will be if they can make a move or two for relief pitching.   I'd feel good about 1 more good reliever...very good with 2 or acquiring a starter and moving Wells to the bullpen (just for innings purposes).    I think this team has enough hitting, but I would not object to acquiring another stick.   I do like the idea of Goldschmidt on this team. 

Even without an acquisition or two, I could still see them going deep in the playoffs.   

[RZNJ]

First things first.  Make the playoffs.  I’m normally pessimistic concerning the randomness and luck even affecting great teams in the playoffs.   I’m feeling pretty good about the offense with reduced time for Mateo and even Frazier and the addition of Westburg and Cowser.   Unless Baker and Baumann step up I think we are one high leverage arm short in the bullpen.   I don’t believe one starter can be the savior and I think Gioloto, Stroman, etc. will probably not be the savior some hope for but that would certainly increase our chances.   I feel like ERod was dominant looking for Detroit before he went down and he would be my choice.

I’m okay with dealing extra pieces even including Ortiz but no one above that which includes 7 prospects.   Prefer not to even use Ortiz in a trade.

Fabian, Norby, Hall, Prieto, Willems, all ok to go.

[Moose Milligan]

It depends on so much. Anything can happen in a playoff series and a lot of it has to do with who is hitting their stride at that time. 
 

I can see everything from a first round bounce to a series win. Too hard to speculate on. 

[RVAOsFan]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So right now, I believe I saw we would be playing Toronto. That’s a toss up series imo.

We are 5-1 against them on the year up to this point, so I would be disappointed if lost a playoff series to them.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It depends on so much. Anything can happen in a playoff series and a lot of it has to do with who is hitting their stride at that time. 
 

I can see everything from a first round bounce to a series win. Too hard to speculate on. 

Yep..lots of luck occurs in the playoffs.

If the playoffs started today, I’m not sure I feel that good about a deep run. I feel the offense would be too easy to shut down and I’m unsure about the pitching holding up.

That said, things can change quickly.

We can talk about trades all day long but for me, to feel really confident heading into October, I need to see internal improvement.

I need to see Adley step up his game(and playing better defensively is included in that). 
 

Can Gunnar reach another level this year? How much does Cowser and Westburg improve? Do they get Ortiz up and how does he hit?  
 

But the thing that may make me feel the best about the playoffs in terms of internal improvements (and obviously it depends on innings count) is GRod. I’m on record a month or so ago saying he would be our best pitcher heading into October. I still believe that. If he can pitch at the level we were expecting him to, he raises the ceiling of the team all by himself.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

We are 5-1 against them on the year up to this point, so I would be disappointed if lost a playoff series to them.

Yea I know but I don’t really think that means much. They have been banged up, especially on the pitching side of things.

The one thing that gives me some confidence is that their pen doesn’t scare me at all. 

[glenn__davis]

It's all a coin flip.  I would guess the official Fangraphs odds of us winning a 3 game series with any other playoff team would be 50 ± 1%.

[yark14]

World Series or bust

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep..lots of luck occurs in the playoffs.

If the playoffs started today, I’m not sure I feel that good about a deep run. I feel the offense would be too easy to shut down and I’m unsure about the pitching holding up.

That said, things can change quickly.

We can talk about trades all day long but for me, to feel really confident heading into October, I need to see internal improvement.

I need to see Adley step up his game(and playing better defensively is included in that). 
 

Can Gunnar reach another level this year? How much does Cowser and Westburg improve? Do they get Ortiz up and how does he hit?  
 

But the thing that may make me feel the best about the playoffs in terms of internal improvements (and obviously it depends on innings count) is GRod. I’m on record a month or so ago saying he would be our best pitcher heading into October. I still believe that. If he can pitch at the level we were expecting him to, he raises the ceiling of the team all by himself.

Well after the last two games against the Yankees and sweeping the Twins I like our pitching right now. And the offense is starting to click.  I mean, who knows what’ll happen after the ASB, but things were looking good headed into it. 

G-Rod coming back strong would be huge. 

[RVAOsFan]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep..lots of luck occurs in the playoffs.

If the playoffs started today, I’m not sure I feel that good about a deep run. I feel the offense would be too easy to shut down and I’m unsure about the pitching holding up.

That said, things can change quickly.

We can talk about trades all day long but for me, to feel really confident heading into October, I need to see internal improvement.

I need to see Adley step up his game(and playing better defensively is included in that). 
 

Can Gunnar reach another level this year? How much does Cowser and Westburg improve? Do they get Ortiz up and how does he hit?  
 

But the thing that may make me feel the best about the playoffs in terms of internal improvements (and obviously it depends on innings count) is GRod. I’m on record a month or so ago saying he would be our best pitcher heading into October. I still believe that. If he can pitch at the level we were expecting him to, he raises the ceiling of the team all by himself.

Agree with all of this and this is why I am optimistic about the second half. I think Gunnar and Adley should have a better second half than first. Westburg and Cowser should be an improvement and GRod could be a huge boost to the rotation if he has figured out his command on his recent visit to Norfolk 

[interloper]

Tough question. There are a lot of rookies on this team who may try to do too much in a playoff series. On the other hand, these rookies are confident and tough-minded. They're also a lot more patient than those Buck teams were, so that's a bonus for us. I have memories of Adam Jones, god love him, just being flat unable to hit in the playoffs.

I think the bullpen is where I see the issue, so it will depend on what Elias can do in the next few weeks. Do we really trust guys like Bryan Baker and Danny Coulombe in the playoffs? Felix is awesome but appeared a little nervous in the AS game, which I thought was uncharacteristic for him. Maybe he was just out of his comfort zone. 

I think we need to hit to win playoff series because our pitching, while decent, probably can't quite hang with the best, playoff-hardened staffs they'll be up against. And it's tough to rely on offense in the playoffs against these types of pitchers. 

All that said, I agree that I'd be disappointed if we didn't win a series with Toronto. Toronto kinda sucks. 

Edited July 13, 2023 by interloper

[Bemorewins]

28 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I feel like this team is just as good as any other team in baseball right now.   They hung with the Braves, Rays, Yankees and other tough opponents.   The question will be if they can make a move or two for relief pitching.   I'd feel good about 1 more good reliever...very good with 2 or acquiring a starter and moving Wells to the bullpen (just for innings purposes).    I think this team has enough hitting, but I would not object to acquiring another stick.   I do like the idea of Goldschmidt on this team. 

Even without an acquisition or two, I could still see them going deep in the playoffs.   

There is NO WAY that they would be favored in a series against the Braves. The Braves have a MUCH better rotation (especially if/when Fried returns) and they have a better offense than we do currently.

I think next year our offense can equal or even surpass theirs if/when Kjerstad, Mayo, and Holliday join the team. However, they still have a tremendous advantage with their rotation.

Without McClanahan, I think we are probably even with the Rays. I think that the Rangers may be a little better than us, but without deGrom we have a decent shot at upsetting them in the postseason.

There is a BIG DIFFERENCE however, between having success over the long haul of the regular season (due to superior depth and an ELITE back end of the bullpen) and winning in a short series in the Fall. The Yankees for example with their older roster of stars and scrubs are not really built for regular season dominance. But in the post season if/when they can throw Cole and Rendon at you in a short series, combined with what Judge and possibly Stanton can do, they can matchup with anyone.

I actually would prefer to avoid the Yankees at all cost. I can see them winning game 1 with Cole out pitching our starter and then seeing a game in Yankee stadium where Wells gives up a bomb or 2 or 3 and then the thing being over.