What would you have said......?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

For MVP he also has Ohtani to contend with. I would not be surprised of Ohtani is unanimous again, and I would be surprised if Bautista gets any more than the Baltimore vote. Cy Young is a real possibility and would be a major coup if he could get it. 

I can't see giving it to Bautista over someone like Cole.

[Orioles Jim]

Honestly, I would've started by saying that in this instance, it's not surprising that the Yankees are in last place, given all that's gone wrong.  I would assume more attrition from the other teams within the division and probably would be floored that we had overtaken the Rays given all this AND their hot start.

[Just Regular]

I'm looking for one more Aces Gonna Ace performance from Bradish (hopefully tonight) before wondering if he's the Club's Cy Young down ballot guy.

We'll see in the next 12 months if any of Cowser/Kjerstad/Mayo/Grayson join Adley/Gunnar/Bradish flirting with 5 Wins.    I don't know the Holliday timing but based on 1-1 and results so far I more or less expect him to have the same 3-4 win floor Adley had, and the fun is just if there's more there.

I still think for 2024 if Mayo can hold 3B you can make even Jordan Westburg iffy for your Top 9, but then he's Chris Taylor and @MurphDogg had the nice Joey Ortiz Enrique Hernandez comparison.

 

 

[SilverRocket]

33 minutes ago, banks703 said:

They don't need Ohtanis and Judges to be a good team if they don't have any guy, top to bottom, who is below average. I would argue that they do not have one single guy who doesn't offer enough in one area or another to make an overall positive contribution to them.

Yep, I mentioned in the offseason that I think this was more or less the front office plan, to make sure the floor was solid and resilient rather than focusing on the ceiling. It's a much sexier move to upgrade a 1 WAR player to a 3 WAR player, but you get wins all the same by making sure you don't have to resort to negative WAR guys when injuries happen or someone doesn't pan out. And the latter strategy is cheaper. We have plenty of ceiling from the younger guys.

[Aristotelian]

43 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I can't see giving it to Bautista over someone like Cole.

As I said, it would be a major coup. He is definitely an underdog and I doubt he will get it, but if any reliever deserves it he certainly does so I think real possibility is fair.

[Winter]

I wish last years Tate could be part of this team. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

As I said, it would be a major coup. He is definitely an underdog and I doubt he will get it, but if any reliever deserves it he certainly does so I think real possibility is fair.

In a world in which 2016 Britton finished fourth I do not think he has a real chance.  Top three I can see.  I think there are too many voters that won't even consider it.

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

In a world in which 2016 Britton finished fourth I do not think he has a real chance.  Top three I can see.  I think there are too many voters that won't even consider it.

 You are probably right but Gagne is precedent and Bautista may break Chapman's record for K/9. 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

 You are probably right but Gagne is precedent and Bautista may break Chapman's record for K/9. 

Not to make us all feel old but Gagne was 20 years ago.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

For MVP he also has Ohtani to contend with. I would not be surprised of Ohtani is unanimous again, and I would be surprised if Bautista gets any more than the Baltimore vote. Cy Young is a real possibility and would be a major coup if he could get it. 

For Cy Young the case is one of the following:

1) His WPA is big, it says he's among the most valuable players in the league.

2) Dude, he struck out 18 per nine and had a 1.00 ERA.

The case against is:

1) He's a reliever who going to throw 70 innings or something, while even today a starter will throw 200.

2) No reliever has gotten any real traction in the Cy Young in 20 years. Even Britton who was arguably about as impressive. Dellin Betances threw 84 innings to a 1.50 with 134 Ks and got one vote. Aroldis Chapman had a year with 17.7 K/9 and got zero votes.

3) His WAR total is going to be far behind the best starters.

4) Like it or not, few people pay any attention to WPA.

I think the only way he gets serious consideration is if he knocks out a bunch of high-profile, high-leverage saves in September.

Edited July 21, 2023 by DrungoHazewood

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For Cy Young the case is one of the following:

1) His WPA is big, it says he's among the most valuable players in the league.

2) Dude, he struck out 18 per nine and had a 1.00 ERA.

The case against is:

1) He's a reliever who going to throw 70 innings or something, while even today a starter will throw 200.

2) No reliever has gotten any real traction in the Cy Young in 20 years. Even Britton who was arguably about as impressive. Dellin Betances threw 84 innings to a 1.50 with 134 Ks and got one vote. Aroldis Chapman had a year with 17.7 K/9 and got zero votes.

3) His WAR total is going to be far behind the best starters.

4) Like it or not, few people pay any attention to WPA.

I think the only way he gets serious consideration is if he knocks out a bunch of high-profile, high-leverage saves in September.

Absolutely, I agree he is a very long shot. I may have confused folks using the term "real possibility". Vegas has him 75 to 1. 

[eddie83]

The SFG of 2021 don’t fit but it always feels to me it’s more likely a young team overplays it’s projections/run differential than an older one. 
 

The key to me other than the back end of the bullpen is the lineup depth. That was a big topic the past off-season. McCann has not hit as well as I would have hoped but there are not easy outs in this lineup.  

[Jammer7]

Great OP! I am not really shocked about any of the bullet points in the OP. I did not expect Cano and Coulombe to be as good as they have been, no. I did expect Hall to be a reliever on the big club by now. Grayson is about what I figured. Overall, not shocked by anything. 

I expected the Orioles to be a clear WC contender. I thought the Blue Jays were the best team in the AL East, and I had the Rays second. I had the Yanks declining rapidly because of their roster full of veteran players who are frequently injured. The Yanks stayed healthy in 2022, and that is why they did so well. To me, that was an aberration.

Tons of close games is hard on the bullpen, and on the manager. Our guys do not roll over often. They have had a few clunkers, but mostly this team will scratch and claw and find a way to get back into games. The execution of the little things such as hitting a ground ball to the right side or a sac fly. Good sound defense overall.

Some things of concern for me:

1. The pen is a huge part of this team, and the appearances are racking up quickly. Bautista, Cano, Coulombe, Baker and Baumann are on pace for about 80 appearances. We have seen Cano fall off somewhat, but that was to be expected. The health/durability of the pen is a serious concern for me. 

2. Kremer, Bradish and Wells are on pace to throw significantly more innings than they have ever thrown in a season. I am not too concerned with Kremer and Bradish, but Wells and his history of shoulder problems is an issue. 

3. Just how long is Mullins out? We miss the bat and speed on the bases, sure. But the defense in CF is a legitimate concern. Especially with all of the close games we play in. Personally, I would be tempted to option Mountcastle and play McKenna in CF 4-5 days a week. Santander can play more 1B, and Hicks and Cowser can still play 4-5 games a week, but mostly away from CF.

4. I would look to decrease Adley’s load a bit. He looks very tired. We need more from McCann’s bat and more frequent at bats would help him.

5. I would look to keep Gunnar at SS for the rest of the season. Let him focus on only one position. Getting into a rhythm and being able to focus on one position is a very good thing for a young star like Gunnar, IMO.

6. Ideally, we need a TOR starter, another back end BP piece and we could use a legitimate RH vet bat. It would be awesome, but probably not realistic, to hope for Scherzer, Goldschmidt and Hader. The O’s won’t make all of these moves. Likely not even one of them. However, if you really wanted to go for it, add Scherzer and Goldy, and watch the team and fans go crazy. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No surprise that 2 of those teams are in the NLC. What an awful division.

Ironically, only the Cubs have a positive run differential and they are under 500.

Don’t see why the strength of a division should have any bearing on variance between a team’s actual and Pythagorean record.  

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Winter said:

I wish last years Tate could be part of this team. 

And Perez