The Orioles will not win the 2023 WS, and may not make the playoffs...and that is Ok

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

The reason why I put not making the playoffs as a possibility is because the O's really have not had a major slump all year.  Pretty unusual.  Been very steady.  But with the pressure of a pennant race and shaky pitching AND lots of younger players and average players having career or very good years so far?  I think the chances of a collapse are   there. 

 

I certainly hope that doesn't happen and chances are it won't happen, but I do sense some weaknesses that if things start to snowball?  It could get bad. 

I’m not saying it can’t happen.  But I would not think it was “OK.”

When the O’s reached 20 games over several weeks back, I looked at every Orioles team that had ever reached 20 games over at any point during the year.  There were 22 such teams.  With only one trivial exception, every one of those teams played .500+ ball the rest of the way, and most continued to play much better then .500 baseball.  The one exception reached 20 games over on the penultimate day of the season, and lost their final game to finish 19 games over.  

So, I’m not in any way prepared to accept that the kind of collapse necessary to miss the playoffs would be OK.  Especially considering what our remaining schedule looks like.  
 

Edited August 12, 2023 by Frobby

[brucewayne]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not saying it can’t happen.  But I would not think it was “OK.”

When the O’s reached 20 games over several weeks back, I looked at every Orioles team that had ever reached 20 games over at any point during the year.  There were 22 such teams.  With only one trivial exception, every one of those teams played .500+ ball the rest of the way, and most continued to play much better then .500 baseball.  The one exception reached 20 games over on the penultimate day of the season, and lost their final game to finish 19 games over.  

So, I’m not in any way prepared to accept that the kind of collapse necessary to miss the playoffs would be OK.  Especially considering what our remaining schedule looks like.  
 

I think the Padres are much better than their record shows.

[Sessh]

I am wondering if all this drama with John Angelos won't become a distraction for this team. I read through some of those threads (including regarding the Kevin Brown situation) and it's just amazing that there's not a single good man in the Angelos family. Just the rumor that he wants to move the team, whether it has a chance of happening or not, is a terrible thing.

Is it possible that this will become a distraction for this young team? If they hit a slump plus all this on top of it, it might be bad. It would have to be really, really bad for them to miss the playoffs, but it could be a perfect storm. I sure hope not though, it would be one hell of a collapse.

[brucewayne]

3 minutes ago, Sessh said:

I am wondering if all this drama with John Angelos won't become a distraction for this team. I read through some of those threads (including regarding the Kevin Brown situation) and it's just amazing that there's not a single good man in the Angelos family. Just the rumor that he wants to move the team, whether it has a chance of happening or not, is a terrible thing.

Is it possible that this will become a distraction for this young team? If they hit a slump plus all this on top of it, it might be bad. It would have to be really, really bad for them to miss the playoffs, but it could be a perfect storm. I sure hope not though, it would be one hell of a collapse.

John Angelos has had it so easy in life. All he had to do was be a genuinely decent guy and he would be loved by millions of people. He's rich, still relatively young and can enjoy his billions. And he's chosen to piss all the goodwill away by being such a malcontent, egotistical, self-centered jerk. 

[dystopia]

2 hours ago, terpoh said:

Orioles have lost 3/4 like every team in baseball has at some point. One of those 3 was against the defending champs in a game that the Orioles dominated for 90% of the game. Certainly the team doesnt look great right now, but nobody wins 162 games. The team is good, and should continue to be good. After Seattle the schedule lightens up.

What? Come on. Great teams never lose 3/4 in a 162 game season. That never happens. Orioles are toast!

[dystopia]

41 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

In the American League?  I would say Houston, the Rays, Toronto and especially Texas are the teams to worry about. 

Houston because they just win and have been there before....many times.  Kind of like how the Colts used to have issues with the Pats even though the Colts usually had more talent.  The Patriots were just winners. 

Toronto and the Rays because I think they are more talented right now.   Texas just because they are playing out of their freaking minds. 

Toronto does not impress me.

[Matt Bennett]

7 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Also has anyone noticed Gunner H is something like 6 for his last 40, 2 for his last 21, and he is only batting .237 on the year?

 

I expected a lot more.  He has played really good D and gotten hot for a couple of months, but overall I am not wowed......yet.   I would say none of the O's prize youngsters are living up to expectations so far.  From him to Cowser to G Rod.  Which is why I say the O's have been somewhat 'lucky' so far this year to have the record that they do. 

 

Next year I expect more.  These guys aren't 20 anymore.  There are lots of players their age who are raking. 

Gunnar Henderson is the American League Rookie of the year, is still hitting nearly 20% above league average after/in a slump, and playing great defense. How many 21 and 22 year olds are doing this exactly? 

[Sessh]

5 minutes ago, brucewayne said:

John Angelos has had it so easy in life. All he had to do was be a genuinely decent guy and he would be loved by millions of people. He's rich, still relatively young and can enjoy his billions. And he's chosen to piss all the goodwill away by being such a malcontent, egotistical, self-centered jerk. 

He learned from the best! He's got all that money and it's still not enough.

[Matt Bennett]

1 hour ago, Ginger said:

I agree with the OP that they are winning with a middling offense and pitching staff. But the defense is excellent. I do expect a regression.

1. Adley Rutschman (C) - 128 OPS+

2. Gunnar Henderson (SS) - 118 OPS+

3. Anthony Santander (RF)- 121 OPS+

4. Ryan O'Hearn (DH/1B) - 131 OPS+

5. Cedric Mullins (CF) - 123 OPS+

6. Ryan Mountcastle (1B/DH) - 117 OPS+

7. Austin Hays (LF) - 111 OPS+

8. Jordan Westburg (2B) - 111 OPS+

9. Ramon Urias (3B) - 100 OPS+

What is your definition of middling? I think it means average. Where are you seeing an average lineup? 

[OnlyOneOriole]

20 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

 Really amazing analysis you're providing

Thanks!

[Morgan423]

Ah, yes, good old reactionary posting. 

People seem to forget, when you hit a small rough patch, that such things are normal in the course of a standard baseball season.

Here's our last World Series winning team.  

Notice the multiple games that they were hammered with 6+ run losses.  Notice the 7 game losing streak. 

That team won 98 games in the regular season.

Step back from the ledge.  All will be okay.

 

[OnlyOneOriole]

28 minutes ago, Sessh said:

I am wondering if all this drama with John Angelos won't become a distraction for this team. I read through some of those threads (including regarding the Kevin Brown situation) and it's just amazing that there's not a single good man in the Angelos family. Just the rumor that he wants to move the team, whether it has a chance of happening or not, is a terrible thing.

Is it possible that this will become a distraction for this young team? If they hit a slump plus all this on top of it, it might be bad. It would have to be really, really bad for them to miss the playoffs, but it could be a perfect storm. I sure hope not though, it would be one hell of a collapse.

Agree.  Not only is it bad karma but as a player it has to kind of put a pall on the team.  Knowing your owner seems to be more about getting negative attention for himself, and he is cheap, imo has to affect the team in a negative way.  I was hoping that the Angels son would be different than his dad, similar to how Irsay is the opposite of his dad, but he seems to be the exact same. 

 

Nothing Angelos does is positive.  Always negative.  It's kind of exhausting.   If I am a young player and I see that on a day to day basis I am telling myself I am out of here as soon as I am eligible. 

Edited August 12, 2023 by OnlyOneOriole

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, brucewayne said:

I think the Padres are much better than their record shows.

Probably, but at this point it seems like they’ve kind of given up.  

[Fan4Life]

7 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Look at 4 of the teams ahead of us for run differential.  Not only are the Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Rangers ahead of us?

 

But they have doubled what our +run differential is.  That is a pretty alarming stat. 

 

MLB Team Run Differential

More Team Stats...

Season:

Date:

Rank	Team	2023	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away	2022
1	Texas	+175.0	+5.0	-2.0	+111.0	+64.0	-36.0
2	Atlanta	+163.0	+1.0	-2.0	+82.0	+81.0	+169.0
3	Tampa Bay	+144.0	-3.0	-3.0	+80.0	+64.0	+50.0
4	LA Dodgers	+123.0	+4.0	+1.0	+68.0	+55.0	+331.0
5	Houston	+71.0	+6.0	-1.0	+7.0	+64.0	+236.0
6	Baltimore	+69.0	-6.0	+1.0	+7.0	+62.0	-14.0

This alone doesn't tell any story. If a team hits .237 but .287 with runners in scoring position, it will be as good or better than a team that hits .287 and .237 with runners ins coring position. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

13 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Toronto does not impress me.

IMO their hitting is better.  D not nearly as good.  Pitching?  Could be better but it hasn't been great this year.  If their pitching gets hot they could make some noise.