The Orioles will not win the 2023 WS, and may not make the playoffs...and that is Ok

[OnlyOneOriole]

I have said throughout this year that anything the O's do this year is just a bonus.  Next year is the year I expect them to be very good.

I think their success this year has kind of led us fans into a fantasy that is not based in reality.

If you really look at their lineup, from starting pitching to relief to the lineup 1 through 9?  It is good, but not elite.

We don't have even one dominant ACE, let alone 2 like some teams.  Our relief pitching outside of Felix?  Very VERY average.

Our hitters?  Lots of good hitters who can get hot.  Some no names having career years.  And lots of first and second year players who get hot....and then  get not hot.  Which is what you expect out of first and 2nd year players.

When they play teams like LA or Atlanta or Houston?  Honestly I expect them to lose 2 out of 3.  Just what it is. 

So to expect them to win 3 series in the playoffs against those same type of teams this year?  I think that is asking a lot.

I would be very happy to win the division this year or even a WC.  I don't expect them to win a playoff series.  And as I said that is ok.

Next year? I expect a lot.

[OnlyOneOriole]

I say this partly because I was watching some replays of the 95-97 O's and it really struck me how much better those teams were compared to what we have right now.  I am not saying we won't be better in 1-2 years when the youngsters develop and we add some players, but those teams back then were really good.  From top to bottom in the lineup and our starting pitching.  I would say overall better than what we have today.  Go back and look at the lineup.  Ripken.  Palmero.  Bonilla.  Anderson.  Mussina.  On and on. 

We don't have the players like that...yet. 

 

And that team still didn't win anything.  The playoffs are a different animal.  Right now we are a good team playing above our water line.  But I sense we are starting to fade and again....that is ok.  It is great experience for the coming years. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

Also has anyone noticed Gunner H is something like 6 for his last 40, 2 for his last 21, and he is only batting .237 on the year?

 

I expected a lot more.  He has played really good D and gotten hot for a couple of months, but overall I am not wowed......yet.   I would say none of the O's prize youngsters are living up to expectations so far.  From him to Cowser to G Rod.  Which is why I say the O's have been somewhat 'lucky' so far this year to have the record that they do. 

 

Next year I expect more.  These guys aren't 20 anymore.  There are lots of players their age who are raking. 

[Alasdaire]

The O's are 7.5 games up on the first team out of WC spot, Seattle, who is only that close because they're on an eight-game win streak and just beat us straight up to close the gap by a full game. With 47 games left, it would take a complete collapse to drop below the Mariners (or Red Sox, who are 10 games behind us). And given that this team has the longest streak in something like 80 years of not being swept, what reason is there to believe they're going to collapse?

This triggers people, but I'm of the same opinion that nothing was ever going to get us to a place where we beat the Astros plus one of Atlanta/LA this year even though that could change by next season. I say that not be to a pessimist, but because I think it would have been detrimental for the front office to delude themselves. That said, this team has shown that everything short of that is within reach this year, which is very exciting in its own right.

[OnlyOneOriole]

6 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

The O's are 7.5 games up on the first team out of WC spot, Seattle, who is only that close because they're on an eight-game win streak and just beat us straight up to close the gap by a full game. With 47 games left, it would take a complete collapse to drop below the Mariners (or Red Sox, who are 10 games behind us). And given that this team has the longest streak in something like 80 years of not being swept, what reason is there to believe they're going to collapse?

This triggers people, but I'm of the same opinion that nothing was ever going to get us to a place where we beat the Astros plus one of Atlanta/LA this year even though that could change by next season. I say that not be to a pessimist, but because I think it would have been detrimental for the front office to delude themselves. That said, this team has shown that everything short of that is within reach this year, which is very exciting in its own right.

 

 

 

I agree with all of that and you said what I was saying.....I think. 

 

I think this year we have played above our weight and as a result has us thinking that we are legit contenders to win the WS.  But when I see us play other really good teams like the Atlanta's or Dodgers or Houston's?  They just seem better.  More clutch.

 

And this is not to take anything away from what the O's have done this year.  It has been great and far exceeded even my expectations....which was to be in contention for a WC.  It is next year that I truly expect a lot.  I kind of equate them to the Colts this year.  Could be good with AR but I don't expect it.  Next year though?

 

Sky is the limit. 

[Alasdaire]

29 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Also has anyone noticed Gunner H is something like 6 for his last 40, 2 for his last 21, and he is only batting .237 on the year?

 

I expected a lot more.  He has played really good D and gotten hot for a couple of months, but overall I am not wowed......yet.   I would say none of the O's prize youngsters are living up to expectations so far.  From him to Cowser to G Rod.  Which is why I say the O's have been somewhat 'lucky' so far this year to have the record that they do. 

 

Next year I expect more.  These guys aren't 20 anymore.  There are lots of players their age who are raking. 

There are three players in all of baseball who are Gunnar's age or younger with a higher wRC+: Riley Greene, Corbin Carroll, and Wander Franco. In part that's because there are only like 20 guys in baseball who are 22 like Gunnar (and even amongst that group, Gunnar is comparatively young). Either way, there aren't tons of other players who are Gunnar's age and are putting up better offensive numbers. It sounds like your expectations might be a bit unrealistic.

[OnlyOneOriole]

Look at 4 of the teams ahead of us for run differential.  Not only are the Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Rangers ahead of us?

 

But they have doubled what our +run differential is.  That is a pretty alarming stat. 

 

MLB Team Run Differential

More Team Stats...

Season:

Date:

Rank	Team	2023	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away	2022
1	Texas	+175.0	+5.0	-2.0	+111.0	+64.0	-36.0
2	Atlanta	+163.0	+1.0	-2.0	+82.0	+81.0	+169.0
3	Tampa Bay	+144.0	-3.0	-3.0	+80.0	+64.0	+50.0
4	LA Dodgers	+123.0	+4.0	+1.0	+68.0	+55.0	+331.0
5	Houston	+71.0	+6.0	-1.0	+7.0	+64.0	+236.0
6	Baltimore	+69.0	-6.0	+1.0	+7.0	+62.0	-14.0

[OnlyOneOriole]

2 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

There are three players in all of baseball who are Gunnar's age or younger with a higher wRC+: Riley Greene, Corbin Carroll, and Wander Franco. In part that's because there are only like 20 guys in baseball who are 22 like Gunnar (and even amongst that group, Gunnar is comparatively young). Either way, there aren't tons of other players who are Gunnar's age and are putting up better offensive numbers. It sounds like your expectations might be a bit unrealistic.

 

Don't get me wrong.  I really like Gunner and in fact have even bought 30 of his rookie cards.  I just expected a little more this year.  More consistency.  Not star numbers but more ups than downs.  So far it is kind of even. 

 

But you could be right...I may have expected too much.  Which goes along with what I have been saying overall with the team.  I think the way they have won this year.....not the way they have played but the way they have won....has led us to too high of expectations for the rest of the year.

 

I think Elias realized that as well which is why he didn't pull off any major trades.  Let this year play out and go for it starting next year. 

[Alasdaire]

6 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

 

Don't get me wrong.  I really like Gunner and in fact have even bought 30 of his rookie cards.  I just expected a little more this year.  More consistency.  Not star numbers but more ups than downs.  So far it is kind of even. 

 

But you could be right...I may have expected too much.  Which goes along with what I have been saying overall with the team.  I think the way they have won this year.....not the way they have played but the way they have won....has led us to too high of expectations for the rest of the year.

 

I think Elias realized that as well which is why he didn't pull off any major trades.  Let this year play out and go for it starting next year. 

Personally, I feel like inconsistency should be expected from a rookie. They haven't figured it all out yet, but you're hoping to see them flash enough to make you believe they will one day. Gunnar has done that in spades.

If you want consistency, look no further than Adley. His top-line numbers this year are almost exactly the same as from last year. And even if you look at his first-half versus second-half numbers this year, they're again almost mirror images. They might not jump off of the page, but if he can return to form as a plus catcher and as a batter continues to be a steadying force in the lineup who you can trust to give you a quality at bat every single time out there, that's an invaluable player.

[OnlyOneOriole]

2 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Personally, I feel like inconsistency should be expected from a rookie. They haven't figured it all out yet, but you're hoping to see them flash enough to make you believe they will one day. Gunnar has done that in spades.

If you want consistency, look no further than Adley. His top-line numbers this year are almost exactly the same as from last year. And even if you look at his first-half versus second-half numbers this year, they're again almost mirror images. They might not jump off of the page, but if he can return to form as a plus catcher and as a batter continues to be a steadying force in the lineup who you can trust to give you a quality at bat every single time out there, that's an invaluable player.

Agree on Adley.  Guy is a winner.  I don't know if he will ever live up to the hype of being the first pick.  And not just the first pick but a Peyton Manning type of first pick.  Mainly because of the position he plays.  It is just too demanding of a position to ever put up truly elite offensive numbers.    Imagine having to crouch down and catch 100 balls a night and even just throwing it back to the pitcher.  Not only that but mentally you have to be on top of things all game. 

It takes it's toll.  Especially over a long season. 

I shudder to think where the O'S would be without him.  I am guessing .500 or so.  He may not get all the stats and the top WAR, but he just wins. 

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Look at 4 of the teams ahead of us for run differential.  Not only are the Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Rangers ahead of us?

 

But they have doubled what our +run differential is.  That is a pretty alarming stat. 

 

MLB Team Run Differential

More Team Stats...

Season:

Date:

Rank	Team	2023	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away	2022
1	Texas	+175.0	+5.0	-2.0	+111.0	+64.0	-36.0
2	Atlanta	+163.0	+1.0	-2.0	+82.0	+81.0	+169.0
3	Tampa Bay	+144.0	-3.0	-3.0	+80.0	+64.0	+50.0
4	LA Dodgers	+123.0	+4.0	+1.0	+68.0	+55.0	+331.0
5	Houston	+71.0	+6.0	-1.0	+7.0	+64.0	+236.0
6	Baltimore	+69.0	-6.0	+1.0	+7.0	+62.0	-14.0

A couple of things, I am happy with the progress of the team this year. I would be blown away surprised if we won a WS this year.

I think your thread is extremely reactionary to say the least. From your 1st post you mention 3 teams and name 2 NL clubs. IMO, we should’ve beat the Astros 2 out of 3. Our closer that hadn’t allowed a run in a month blew a save. 
 

Not making the playoffs would take a monumental collapse. Every team goes through rough patches. That’s why even the best teams lose 60 games a year.

Henderson is 6 for his last 40? Okay, but all players have ups and downs over 600 ABs. He’s been extremely hot over an extended period after a slow start to the season. Hopefully he heats back up here soon.

As far as your differential post, The Rays were really hot early. What is their differential over the last 30 games. As I recall they were way up in the win loss column back in June. I think we can agree they came back to earth.

last night was tough ….Seeing Gibson implode and have the worst start of his career stinks. He’s been mostly reliable and has given us a chance to win most nights.

Relax man … it’s only one night and a rough patch. All teams have them.

[Going Underground]

Dont see it happening unless they have a Diamonbacks collapse. The schedule is not a killer and would take a Bautista blowing save after save and an Adley injury and probably still would make the playoffs. 

 

 

[terpoh]

Orioles have lost 3/4 like every team in baseball has at some point. One of those 3 was against the defending champs in a game that the Orioles dominated for 90% of the game. Certainly the team doesnt look great right now, but nobody wins 162 games. The team is good, and should continue to be good. After Seattle the schedule lightens up.

[Sports Guy]

They are 100% making the playoffs.

[waroriole]

I guess threads like this are what to expect when the team is playing so well. It would be nice if there was a section for all the nonsensical reactionary threads.