Jump to content

Padres series

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Popular Post
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted

Rodriguez (2-3, 5.84 ERA) vs. Darvish (8-7, 4.19)

Flaherty (8-7, 4.33$ vs. Wacha (8-2, 2.84) 

Kremer (11-4, 4.50) vs. Snell (9-8, 2.63)

On paper, the Padres have a big edge in all three pitching matchups, but the Padres have been far less than the sum of their parts.   Their Pythagorean record, at 65-53, is 9 games worse than their actual record.  Meanwhile the O’s have the identical Pythag to the Padres, but have exceeded it by 8 games.   

Darvish has pitched well of late, 2.55 ERA in his last 6 starts, with 5 of those starts being very good.  Shockingly, he’s only faced the Orioles once in his career, all the way back in 2016.   Wacha is coming off the IL, having last pitched a major league game on July 1.  The Padres are wasting no time reinserting him into the rotation, as he pitched only one rehab game, for 2 innings.  So, we can expect a short start for Wacha on Tuesday.  He has not fared well against the Orioles in the past, posting a 5.87 ERA against them in 9 starts.  Snell has been on fire, posting an incredible 1.16 ERA over his last 15 starts, though averaging only 5.67 IP in those starts.  The O’s have had pretty decent success against Snell in the past (4.58 ERA in 7 starts), but haven’t seen him since 2020.

The Padres rank 14th in runs/game at 4.58, whereas the Orioles average 4.87, 6th in MLB.  Both teams, however, have a 105 OPS+.   I think it’s fair to say that all the Padres’ key hitters (Soto, Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts) are having disappointing seasons, though for Soto, .915 OPS is his idea of “disappointing,” given his .944 career mark    The Padres are certainly a team capable of exploding at any time.

The Padres’ bullpen is a respectable 12th in MLB in ERA at 3.98, but they’ve been remarkably unclutch, sporting a 14-25 record.  They’ve allowed 39% on inherited runners to score, 2nd worst in MLB, and their 56% save rate is 7th worst.  The O’s pen, meanwhile, is 33-15, with a 3.62 ERA, 6th best in MLB.  Their inherited runner percentage is 37%, 7th worst in MLB, and their 60% save rate is 13th worst in MLB.  So, the O’s have the better bullpen in almost every respect, though our pen certainly has its flaws.  Hader is still very dominant at the back end (0.86 ERA) if they can get to him with the lead.

So, as often seems to be the case, the O’s goal should be to work the count and get the Padres’ starters out of the game as early as possible, and take advantage of their shaky middle relievers.   The Pads will look to do the same.  Should be a good series.  


 

 

  • Upvote 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Malike Hangout Grand Counsel

Malike

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

More good pitching in a big park. Similar to Seattle although SD has more offensive talent.

Padres still have some chance to make the playoffs but they have to start getting hot like now. 

I'd prefer they get hot 4 days from now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HakunaSakata Major Leaguer Rising Star

HakunaSakata

Posted
Posted

Call me crazy, but Snell's the only match-up that has me concerned. Yes, Darvish has been solid lately, but he's been wildly inconsistent all season and I really feel like Rodriguez is on the verge of a very dominant start. And I'd rather have Flaherty on the bump than Wacha. Hoping the O's can help error correct his unbelievable lucky ERA to the 4.20 xERA that it should be. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted

I’ll just keep eating up the plus money from Vegas. Gotta love getting the best team in the AL as underdogs. 

From what we just saw in Seattle, the SP we face can only get worse. Wacha is a good matchup for us and Snell is a 5 and dive guy. Plus, I like our approach of being aggressive against big time pitchers. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ThisIsBirdland Major Leaguer

ThisIsBirdland

Posted
Posted

I don't think it's a trap series necessarily because they have good starters going and they have a dangerous lineup, even if it's inconsistent. But I doubt they catch the O's sleepwalking or coming off of an emotional letdown; they've been so good about showing up to each game with the same scrappy attitude. I think the games will be close and the O's take 2 of 3.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Darvish has pitched well of late, 2.55 ERA in his last 6 starts, with 5 of those starts being very good.  Shockingly, he’s only faced the Orioles once in his career, all the way back in 2016.

There was that one other time in 2012 at the end of his USA debut season!

  • Upvote 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
OsFanSinceThe80s Hangout Grand Counsel

OsFanSinceThe80s

Posted
Posted (edited)

Now the real question will Orioles announcers just refer to Manny Machado as "that guy" at third base all series?

Maybe it will be like Tecmo Bowl when they didn't have the license to use Randall Cunnungham's name and he was just called QB Eagles in the game.

 

 

1_WlcoGVxfO2Z2Pmg7V44p2Q.0.jpeg

Edited by OsFanSinceThe80s
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

More good pitching in a big park. Similar to Seattle although SD has more offensive talent.

Padres still have some chance to make the playoffs but they have to start getting hot like now. 

I suspect this is part of the reason the Padres underperform, though certainly not the only reason.

They have star pitchers and hitters, but how many of those stars are great defenders, or good at manufacturing runs, moving runners over, etc.?

It feels like a team that if you keep the ball in the park and grind out a few runs, you have a sold chance to win.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • Drifter
      Co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller, Fredi Gonzalez and Jose Hernandez let go

      By Drifter · Posted

      I have no idea why any team would want more than 1 philosophy across the board, especially a young team. Possibly a player's demands or contract calls for his own hitting coach.. but I stand by my wish.
    • Winter
      Offseason Trade Pondering

      By Winter · Posted

      At cost considerations there is 2 players i'd rather have listed in that article over Crochet, Helsley leading that. Also Mountcastle to the Reds for a SP makes a lot of sense also. 
    • Just Regular
      Would you say that the Tigers rebuild is more successful than the O's?

      By Just Regular · Posted

      Guilty. I'm working to be intentional to enjoy the day to day of a lot of exciting careers beginning, and not miss the moment as during say Peyton Manning's career in a different chapter of life when assured 14-2 or 13-3 seasons were four months of boredom while you waited to see what the playoff stumble would be this time.    SIGBOT's stuff works in the regular season same as Billy Beane's didn't in the playoffs. I don't follow Over/Unders, but would guess the 2025 Orioles are 1st or 2nd in the AL on early action.    My informal AL power rankings end of 2024: 1. A nonexistent Orioles team with a functional Adley Rutschman 2. Yankees with Soto 3. Tie between actual Orioles with broken Adley and end stage Astros that lost several series to hot Central teams 4. Yankees without Soto 5. Central I'm cheating Cleveland there for a joke, and hope they win, which they are plenty capable of doing.    It is an interesting matchup for the stuff the two teams are good at being very different.
    • EddeeEddee
      Offseason Trade Pondering

      By EddeeEddee · Posted

      I don't see the O's trading Mullins without getting a replacement for him from somewhere.  It's doubtful we have anyone in the minors yet ready to step in for him.  Maybe the same for Urias since he's the perfect backup infielder.  I think Mateo and Mountcastle are more likely to be traded.
    • Uli2001
      Other teams playoffs game thread

      By Uli2001 · Posted

      I was clearly talking about the AL...
    • Sports Guy
      Offseason Trade Pondering

      By Sports Guy · Posted

      You mean like how the Os dealt guys like Hays, Stowers and Norby?  Yea, guys who are good depth but guys we can stand to trade are guys I want to trade….and obviously Elias feels similarly. These guys carry value. The level of value depends on the player and you can debate the value of return but yes, you absolutely should trade out of depth and trade guys that perhaps that don’t match your team philosophies.  That’s what teams do.
    • Sports Guy
      Offseason Trade Pondering

      By Sports Guy · Posted

      Who knows.  Lots of possibilities. There could be another trade like the Hays trade.  Or maybe you can get a ML ready arm that profiles as a high end reliever. I don’t think that you will get a proven lock down guy but that doesn’t mean you can’t get someone that will end up a big contributor.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...