Competitive Window- 24' roster

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The rating don't say he is slow.  They say his speed is below average.   Are you saying that is not true?

Yes.  Watching highlights of him running the bases and the speeds we have seen him from him going home to third, he is not slow/below average.

[AnythingO's]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Kjerstad is not slow.

I agree, Fangraphs "speed" stat has Kjerstad (6.0) rated above Cowser (5.5) but that is more speed running the base paths vs sprint speed.

Mayo is 2.6, Westburg 6.6, Ortiz 6.8.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes.  Watching highlights of him running the bases and the speeds we have seen him from him going home to third, he is not slow/below average.

You could be right.  I have seen replays of him hitting a triple also.   I  just don't know if that was poor defense or not.   He seems like an aggressive base runner.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You could be right.  I have seen replays of him hitting a triple also.   I  just don't know if that was poor defense or not.   He seems like an aggressive base runner.

I don’t care about the defense. It’s about his time to get around the bases. The defense doesn’t help with that.

He runs well. People act like he is 1996 Bobby Bonilla in the OF. It’s a bit absurd. Not sure he’s ever going to win a GG but I’m not sure he’s really going to hurt you out there either.

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I agree, Fangraphs "speed" stat has Kjerstad (6.0) rated above Cowser (5.5) but that is more speed running the base paths vs sprint speed.

Mayo is 2.6, Westburg 6.6, Ortiz 6.8.

Help me out here.  Where are these numbers in Fangraphs.

Here is Kjerstad's Fangraph prospect page.   It has his speed as slow (40).

HitGame PowerRaw PowerSpeedFieldFV

40 / 5045 / 5560 / 6040 / 4040 / 5045+

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/heston-kjerstad/sa3014439/stats?position=OF

 

Edited August 18, 2023 by wildcard

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t care about the defense. It’s about his time to get around the bases. The defense doesn’t help with that.

He runs well. People act like he is 1996 Bobby Bonilla in the OF. It’s a bit absurd. Not sure he’s ever going to win a GG but I’m not sure he’s really going to hurt you out there either.

I do care about defense and I think Elias does too.

Edited August 18, 2023 by wildcard

[AnythingO's]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Help me out here.  Where are these numbers in Fangraphs.

Try this: change from Qualified to 100 ABs to get Mayo, pick AAA and Bal and check the Spd column

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=5&stats=bat&qual=y&type=1&team=&season=2023&seasonEnd=2023&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=19,1

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

However the point remains.  You don't have a better stat  to compare minor leaguers to major leaguers and neither do I.

There comes a point where I just say, this stat isn’t good enough and I’m not going to rely on it to make any judgments even if better stats aren’t publicly available.  We know one thing: the O’s have much better information than range factor on which to make their judgments.  

[AnythingO's]

Speed score (Spd) is a statistic developed by Bill James that rates a player on their speed and baserunning ability. Different locations include slightly different components, but the FanGraphs version consists of, “…Stolen Base Percentage, Frequency of Stolen Base Attempts, Percentage of Triples, and Runs Scored Percentage.”

Context:

Rating	Spd
Excellent	7.0
Great	6.0
Above Average	5.5
Average	4.5
Below Average	4.0
Poor	3.0
Awful	2.0

 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Help me out here.  Where are these numbers in Fangraphs.

Here is Kjerstad's Fangraph prospect page.   It has his speed as slow (40).

HitGame PowerRaw PowerSpeedFieldFV

40 / 5045 / 5560 / 6040 / 4040 / 5045+

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/heston-kjerstad/sa3014439/stats?position=OF

 

They also had Mountcastle at 45 and yet he’s in the 75th percentile for speed per Statcast.   So, I don’t put a lot of stock in those speed grades.  I have seen Kjerstad play several times in spring training and I’ve seen highlights of various extra base hits, and there is no way he’s below average IMO.

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I do care about defense and I think Elias does too.

 

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I do care about defense and I think Elias does too.

Sigh. I’m not talking about HIS defense.

 When talking about the triple, you said you didn’t know if was bad defense..or at least that’s the way it’s worded.

His time running around the bases is what matters, not if the defense misplayed a double into a triple.

[wildcard]

43 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Speed score (Spd) is a statistic developed by Bill James that rates a player on their speed and baserunning ability. Different locations include slightly different components, but the FanGraphs version consists of, “…Stolen Base Percentage, Frequency of Stolen Base Attempts, Percentage of Triples, and Runs Scored Percentage.”

Context:

Rating	Spd
Excellent	7.0
Great	6.0
Above Average	5.5
Average	4.5
Below Average	4.0
Poor	3.0
Awful	2.0

 

Thanks.   It will be something to look at.  It appears to be more current then the season projections.    But the scale is a little weird because I see speeds as high as 9.8 on a 7 scale.  Are you sure the scale you posted is for this chart?

[wildcard]

54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There comes a point where I just say, this stat isn’t good enough and I’m not going to rely on it to make any judgments even if better stats aren’t publicly available.  We know one thing: the O’s have much better information than range factor on which to make their judgments.  

Its a data point.   I don't have anything better.  I don't expect you to use it.  But for me it better than sticking my finger in the air to check the wind speed.

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Thanks.   It will be something to look at.  It appears to be more current then the season projections.    But the scale is a little weird because I see speeds as high as 9.8 on a 7 scale.  Are you sure the scale you posted is for this chart?

Yes, explanation and chart were both from Fangraphs site

 

Edited August 18, 2023 by AnythingO's
Typo

[Matt Bennett]

20 hours ago, jamorrow91 said:

I’m interested in Cameron being the 4th OF,/backup CF over McKenna. He’s had a quietly solid season in AAA. Reduced strikeouts, solid power and OBP, can steal bases. I doubt Haskin is considered to start next year with such limited AAA experience. 

AAA offensive numbers are up league wide. Cameron's wRC+ is 97. The O's signing Aaron Hicks when Mullins, Cowser, and Stowers were hurt tells us all we need to know about what management thinks about Cameron. Seems like a solid athlete but not someone that needs to be in the majors unless he absolutely forces the issue, which he hasn't. I don't see a spot for McKenna or Cameron as Hays, Mullins, Cowser, Santander, Stowers, Kjerstad are ahead of him plus Norby and Vavra have been playing some outfield. IDK his contract situation but he seems like a minor league free agent type.