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So have the O’s clinched a playoff spot, or not?

Frobby

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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@bpilktreethinks we’ve clinched a playoff spot following Seattle’s loss last night.   Per his post in the Scoreboard Watching thread:

We have 92 wins so the most losses we can have is 70.  The Rangers have have 66 losses the Mariners have 67.  They play a 7 game series.  The following scenarios.  
Rangers win all 7.  The Mariners have 74 loses we go to playoffs.

Rangers  go 6-1  The Mariners have 73 loses we go to playoffs

Rangers go 5-2.  The Mariners have 72 loses we go to playoffs

Rangers go 4-3.  The Mariners have 71 loses we go to playoffs.

Rangers go 3-4.  Mariners and Rangers have 70 loses.  That would put it at 3 way tie.  We hold tiebreaker over Mariners.  Rangers have tie breaker over Mariners too.  We go to playoffs.

Rangers go 2-5.  Rangers have 71 loses we go to playoffs.

Rangers go 1-6.  Rangers 72 loses we go to playoffs

Rangers go 0-7  Rangers 73 loses we go to playoffs.  
 

We go to playoffs no matter which way you run the series so we are in.  
=======

So, is this correct?   I’m not seeing any media reports that we’ve clinched a playoff spot.  I think the only questionable part is whether, in the scenario where all three teams lose 70 games, there is some other method of breaking a three way tie.  


 

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Bahama O's Fan Hangout Grand Counsel

Bahama O's Fan

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According to Roch's article this morning at 4:00 am, he thinks they can clinch today, so there must be some weird three way tie breaking scenario with all three losing 70 games as you asked there.

"The Orioles can clinch their first playoff berth today since 2016. Can’t really think about the division crown until finishing the first order of business.

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Hallas Hangout Grand Counsel

Hallas

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Per the Sun, the division isn't technically locked up.  If Toronto wins out and wins the division, Tampa ends up with 69 losses or less, and Houston, Seattle, and Texas end up with identical 92-70 records, we lose that tiebreaker if we end the season at 92-70.  

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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

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56 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Right, but the Mariners hadn't lost yet

I get you ….but, they also said it could happen today on the news this am  and showed the scenarios. An Orioles win or there were two others losing. I believe they were Texas and Seattle

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bpilktree Hangout Grand Counsel

bpilktree

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https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-tiebreaker-rules
 

This is breakdown I used which shows that us and Texas would go to playoffs based on three team tie breaker.  
 

After thinking about it though there is one very very small way we don’t get in.  The playoffs are determined by the records at the end of Sunday no extension of the season.  That would mean a rainout that isn’t made up in series could have an effect in there.  Now most likely the rainouts would just be made up as a double header however if the last game is rained out it doesn’t get made up.  If Seattle went 4-2 going into Sunday and that game gets rained out then Seattle only has 69 loses and us and Rangers have 70.  Seattle gets in and then the Rangers would get in over us based on division record since season series is tied.  Now the good thing is that last game is in Seattle so rainout not really an option unless the roof doesn’t work or something else crazy.  

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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3 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-tiebreaker-rules
 

This is breakdown I used which shows that us and Texas would go to playoffs based on three team tie breaker.  
 

After thinking about it though there is one very very small way we don’t get in.  The playoffs are determined by the records at the end of Sunday no extension of the season.  That would mean a rainout that isn’t made up in series could have an effect in there.  Now most likely the rainouts would just be made up as a double header however if the last game is rained out it doesn’t get made up.  If Seattle went 4-2 going into Sunday and that game gets rained out then Seattle only has 69 loses and us and Rangers have 70.  Seattle gets in and then the Rangers would get in over us based on division record since season series is tied.  Now the good thing is that last game is in Seattle so rainout not really an option unless the roof doesn’t work or something else crazy.  

As if getting to a three team tiebreaker is not crazy enough.  Lol

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Morgan423 Hangout Grand Counsel

Morgan423

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As someone pointed out earlier, any O's win or any Toronto loss all the way until the end of the season locks up at least a wild card for the O's.  

So we have to lose out, Toronto must win out to prevent the O's from reaching the playoffs.  Along with some other stuff among WC competing teams as well.

And folks, Toronto isn't going to win out.  If you start with today, they have a dozen straight games against the AL East to close the year (1 vs Boston, 6 vs NYY, 5 vs Tampa).  

They aren't going 12-0 against that.  Things are looking pretty good from here. 

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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7 minutes ago, rm5678 said:

Why is today's Blue Jays game not a factor in our magic number? The Jays currently hold the last WC spot, and they are in between the Rangers and Mariners in win percentage.

Because the 7 games that Seattle and Texas have to play against each other means that one of those teams MUST lose at least 4 more games, and as long as one of them is behind us we get a wild card.

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Morgan423 Hangout Grand Counsel

Morgan423

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4 minutes ago, rm5678 said:

I heard last night that the Rays' magic number last night was 2. Since the Rangers lost, I think it dropped to 1. So if the O's win today and the Rangers lose, does that mean the O's and Rays will both be celebrating after today's game?

That would be supremely weird  🤣

But possible, I suppose.  The Rangers have a day game that only starts about 10 minutes after ours does.

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