Jump to content

Fangraphs article on why their projections hate us

Hallas

By Hallas
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 138
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Moose Milligan
Moose Milligan
Malike
Malike

My recommendation is, if you are curious as to what it says, just read it. I'm not the Cliff Notes of the OH.

DrungoHazewood
DrungoHazewood

And they do things like assume that Ryan O' Hearn's last five years of performance are meaningful, and that he's likely not a .850 OPS guy going forward. Orioles fans look at O'Hearn playing awesome f

Posted Images

Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I nearly 100% guarantee that any of their analysts would admit with little or no prodding that the uncertainty in their forecasts, as is true with all baseball team forecasts, is much larger than the separation between many of the teams. Everyone knows, or should know, that when someone says the Blue Jays will win 87 games what they really mean is that the center of the probability distribution is 87 wins, but nobody's gonna be too surprised if they win 77 or 97.

If that means you think nobody has a really valid projection system, that's not wrong. But that's a lot different than singling out anyone in particular like Fangraphs.

Yeah.

But I don't like Fangraphs.

:) 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

That sounds true in the grand scheme.  Injuries, "hot/cold streaks"... 

Are there certain stats that are more variable than others?  If so, then would a GM goal be about reducing the random variation?  

K% is one that I know we've discussed from a pitching perspective.  Balls in play are subject to more variation than striking someone out.  Same thing for hitting (but a low K%).  Maybe the SigBot is onto the same thing you're talking about because we signed a guy this past offseason who's main value-add skill is his low K%.

Here's a relevant quote from Tom Tango:

Quote

Listen, this idea of the true spread being smaller than the observed spread bothers many people, and they all think they know a way around it.  And they don’t.  They can’t.  Even if they are god.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ledzepp8 Hangout Grand Counsel

ledzepp8

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think you're necessarily wrong.  The Baltimore Inferiority Complex is a very real thing.  A city that might be best known around the country for The Wire...tucked between Washington DC (you know, where things allegedly get done, the nerve center of the free world, Nation's Attic) Philly (Rocky) and NYC (cultural center of...well, everything) and there's an inferiority complex that people from the area have.  Rightly or wrongly, it exists.

But I also don't think you're necessarily correct here, either.  As others have pointed out, Fangraphs has been down on the Orioles the entire season and the Orioles have been consistent throughout the entire season.  I mean, you have to be to win 101 games, be one of two teams, IIRC, that didn't have a losing month and haven't been swept in a series since 2022.  

And yet, they continue to be down on the Orioles.  They can say "our projections" all they want and that's fine.  But maybe at some point they should stop patting themselves on the back and acting like the smartest baseball people on the internet because they've been consistently wrong about this team.  Moreover, they seem to want to double down on it. 

There's nothing they can do or say to convince me that the Diamondbacks or Phillies or Dodgers have better World Series odds than us when you take into consideration that all of those teams probably have to go through the team that they think has the highest odds to win it all.   

 

 

This is on point. I couldn't care less if they make a projection and it's wildly wrong. That's what happens all the time. The issue is when they continue to tout these projections and project the Orioles to still be worse than they are deeper and deeper into the season, in spite of their actual performance on the field/in the standings. It's akin to them saying, "Our projections are right. It's the Orioles winning ways that are wrong. You'll see (eventually)."

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dystopia Hangout Grand Counsel

dystopia

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes, because it isn't personal.

Why does that matter? FG is looking at a 100 team and saying “we don’t believe you’re anywhere close to being that good”. Doesn’t matter if it’s personal or not. It would be one thing if it could be statistically defensible but it’s not. The Orioles and their fans have every right to feel disrespected by that, and there’s 29 other teams and fan bases who would feel the same way. If you think otherwise, then you’re either lying or not a real fan. 

  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
NCRaven Hangout Grand Counsel

NCRaven

Posted
Posted

Fangraphs playoff odds were updated throughout the season, including as recently as this morning.  They are based on the team and individual player performances from what I understand.  They use the same methodology for every team in baseball during the season and every team still alive in the post season.  I think that one of the reasons that they are missing on the O's this year is that our young players lack a long performance history and their system is slow to adjust to more recent performance vs. past performance.  It's also true that teams with our run differential do not historically do as well as this year's Orioles team has done.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • bpilktree67
      The Difference between the O's and other Playoff teams

      By bpilktree67 · Posted

      I honestly think there is very little difference in most the teams that made the playoffs.  The most wins was 98 wins and there was 12 teams with 86 wins or more.  It also seems that many of the teams are on the same page with scouting and analytics now hitting wise.  Years back you had moneyball which the A’s used before anyone else.  Then the Astros and few teams started with analytics and seemed to be ahead of the rest of the league but they have caught up now imo.  Now the move seems to be on launch angle and hitting homers by getting the ball in the air but that seems to be across the league.  Obviously some teams have more money and more talented players but the strategy seems about the same.  The main differences I see is in pitching in the playoffs which is bullpen games and using openers rather then a starter to go 7 innings and carry your team to win now a slight sign of trouble they are taking them out.  With all these short inning guys and pitching them in certain pockets we are seeing very little offense and the hitting with runners in scoring position has been awful.  It all comes down to RISP at bats and getting 1 or 2 big base hits in those situations.  We just haven’t been able to get those hits so far in short series.  
    • OsFanSinceThe80s
      The Difference between the O's and other Playoff teams

      By OsFanSinceThe80s · Posted

      And we've seen similar with Kjerstad. Kjerstad might be the best pure hitting prospect in the Orioles system of recent years besides Gunnar. I want to see him playing everyday next year is possible none of this sitting him versus LHP more often than not. These prospects need to get their reps and stop treating them like John Lowenstein and Benny Ayala.
    • bpilktree67
      Offseason Trade Pondering

      By bpilktree67 · Posted

      I don’t see Elias trading off prospects anymore at least top guys.  We have moved a few guys in last year and I expect they try to build that back up.  They should have money to use if they want to add talent.  
    • OsFanSinceThe80s
      Other teams playoffs game thread

      By OsFanSinceThe80s · Posted

      Blah, well Rob Manfred has to be happy along with Fox network. A Yankees-Mets World Series match up is still on the table and the Dodgers as well if they win tomorrow. I knew the Royals would get jettisoned by the Yankees without too much of a fight.
    • Roll Tide
      Offseason Trade Pondering

      By Roll Tide · Posted

      For Mountcastle …Maybe Chase Petty and Tristan Smith?
    • Roll Tide
      Offseason Trade Pondering

      By Roll Tide · Posted

      I’m guessing they ask for Mayo or Basallo of Kjerstad. For me …I’d give them Kjerstad since he’s defensively challenged IMO. Maybe Kjerstad, McDermott, Beavers, and O’Ferrall? 
    • 24fps
      The Difference between the O's and other Playoff teams

      By 24fps · Posted

      192 wins in two seasons is a pretty strong argument to stay the course.  That said, I wonder if the young players wouldn't be better off long-term if the scientific matchups took a back seat to the raw talent a little more than we've seen.  Overthinking something can be a thing you know.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...