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2024 Opening Day Roster


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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m still making a big push for Luis Robert and seeing if the WS would move him.

I would trade for a starter and sign someone in FA.

Would add 2-3 new BP arms.

Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser to the White Sox for Luis Robert and Dylan Cease 

 

I can't wait for the board to meltdown at this proposal. 

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure, if you want to put everything on 1 start.

He is under team control for next season. He is just coming off a major injury and we have no idea how he’s going to look. We see good and bad signs now. Signing him to a 3 year deal right now is irresponsible unless, as I said, he’s signing for a salary so low that he could be a LoOGy and you still get your money’s worth but obviously he’s not signing that.

You have plenty of time to talk to him about a contract. 

Means' body of work far exceeds one start.

You really don't have "plenty of time."  You basically have this offseason.  If you fail to sign him this offseason, and he goes into the season and pitches as he always has, then he's going to test FA.

If you want any kind of "discount" it has to be this offseason.  

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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol at the trade simulator. Why people look at that site is beyond me.

There are many ways to do it. 

I trust it more than random guy on message board saying "we can just trade X superstar, there are many [unspecified] ways to do it." Robert has an extremely team friendly contract with four years of control. It's going to take more than a package of second tier prospects. I'd be shocked if he changes teams for less than an MLB top 10 prospect.

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Zero interest in Cease. Not sure any pitcher is more overrated by Os fans than he is.

 

I don't hate Cease but I probably would not actually do that deal simply because of Robert's health concerns but also because of only getting back one year of Cease. Comparatively, it's probably a pretty equal trade if all players stay healthy. 

Cease is having a bit of a down year but FanGraphs has him at 3.5 WAR this year and he just recorded his 200th strikeout this year on Saturday. Again, I don't think I actually do that trade but I would part with both Holliday and Cowser if the return was a legit # 1 pitcher. 

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2 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I don't hate Cease but I probably would not actually do that deal simply because of Robert's health concerns but also because of only getting back one year of Cease. Comparatively, it's probably a pretty equal trade if all players stay healthy. 

Cease is having a bit of a down year but FanGraphs has him at 3.5 WAR this year and he just recorded his 200th strikeout this year on Saturday. Again, I don't think I actually do that trade but I would part with both Holliday and Cowser if the return was a legit # 1 pitcher. 

Cease is a free agent in '26. Does that change your answer? 

I don't think the White Sox would do it, which maybe means we should. I don't think I would though, I just want to see Holliday play for the O's. 

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We're pushing 100 wins this year.  I don't see how "a lot of change" to anything is going to happen.  Starters, bullpen, positions...  Some change and marginal improvements/backfilling?  Sure.  

Position players - I doubt they bring in any vets for MI unless they move Urias or Mateo.  Can they cost-effectively be marginally better than Mountcastle/O'Hearn?  Or Hicks?  I suspect the answer is no for 2024.  Still hoping to see a top of deck trade of some sort even if for prospects.  I highly doubt it'll be more than 2 of the non-core guys traded away though.  

Bullpen - I assume Bautista is out for the season, so I suspect this is where the bulk of the FA spending goes.  We probably need 2-3 arms there.  I tend to think Hader wants more total money, but would he sign a 2 yr/$40-45m deal (or some type of "this is my guy" contract)?  Maybe David Robertson and/or Matt Moore on 1-year deals.  Maybe Fuji again?  Cisnero?  Stanek?  Ottavino?  

Starters - Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer, _____.  Wells sees himself as an SP.  Hall has worked for it too.  Irvin is in the wings.  All 7 are solid options, but all have questions (at least from a health and/or year-over-year stats perspective).  I tend to doubt they go to ST with just those options.  Probably a Gibson-type, maybe Gibson, will be added.  

Nightengale said Snell's looking for a $200m deal.  Even if he only gets $150-175m, that doesn't fit the Elias' MO.  

 

I wonder who the "Elias Guy" will be...?  2022 - Lyles, 2023 - Gibson, Frazier, Givens, 2024 - ???  No clue who, but RP seems to be the area of need as much as anything else.

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9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Cease is a free agent in '26. Does that change your answer? 

I don't think the White Sox would do it, which maybe means we should. I don't think I would though, I just want to see Holliday play for the O's. 

Is he? I thought I saw his service time at 5 years. 

Ehhhhh I probably still do not do it. It'd be hard to part with all of the cost/control of Holliday and Cowser for two years of Cease even with Robert. Robert is truly elite when healthy but I can't trust his health. He left their game last night with an apparent injury. 

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50 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Means' body of work far exceeds one start.

You really don't have "plenty of time."  You basically have this offseason.  If you fail to sign him this offseason, and he goes into the season and pitches as he always has, then he's going to test FA.

If you want any kind of "discount" it has to be this offseason.  

Right.  If you sign Means this off season you are assuming the risk of him staying healthy and being what he was in 2021.   I’m not sure what type of contact that would take.   If you wait and he proves he’s healthy and back you have to pay full FA prices.    Jameson Taillon is a similar age with TJ in his past and got 4/68.    A healthy Means coming off a strong 2024 probably does better than that.   

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Luis Robert Jr.   Trading for a player coming off of a career year is great if you want to pay a steep price.  Robert wasn’t able to stay on the field for 100 games in either 2021 or 2022.  I’d love to see his spray charts too.  He’s going to lose a few homers here.   He’s also a hacker.  30 walks and 172 K’s.   Everything went right for him this year.    He’s a talent but I see a lot of risk trading for someone who is way down our list of needs. 

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6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right.  If you sign Means this off season you are assuming the risk of him staying healthy and being what he was in 2021.   I’m not sure what type of contact that would take.   If you wait and he proves he’s healthy and back you have to pay full FA prices.    Jameson Taillon is a similar age with TJ in his past and got 4/68.    A healthy Means coming off a strong 2024 probably does better than that.   

If Means were to have a 2024 that was similar in value to his 2022 then he would be looking at minimum 4/80 as a FA imo.

Sure, you can't guarantee that Means will be as good as he was, but all evidence so far suggests he's going to be, so the contract has a risk aspect to it (they all do of course) but that's why you can get a "discount."

Now, no, you're not going to be able to pay his as  LOOGY, thus removing all risk from the O's side of the equation, but there's a middle ground to be had, or at least explored.

He should be in the ~3 million range for salary next year.  What if you went to him and offered him 4/48?

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