How Many Stick Around to Next Year?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

I think the guy who goes is Mullins.  He has slipped 2 years in a row offensively and is getting older.  He is still a plus center fielder so hopefully you can get something valuable via trade because of that and reputation.  You could then play Cowser and Mckenna in center and probably get better offense with an obvious drop off in defense.  Hicks could also be kept if you prefer him for insurance over Mckenna even though I thought Mckenna had a pretty solid year overall.  That still allows the DH position to go between Kjerstad, Santander and Adley with the first 2 alternating in RF.  

In the infield I think Urias is gone.  Right now Westburg and him are too similar with Westburg having the upside.  In this scenario I could see them keeping Frazier for 1 more season because of his LH bat.  I want to see Ortiz at 2nd to start the season while Holliday gets another few weeks in the minors.  This gives you Westburg at 3rd, Gunner at SS, Ortiz at 2nd with Frazier in when they face a tough RHP.  That would also keep Mateo as more of a utility guy, pinch runner.  

Lastly if they could get a haul for Mountcastle I could see them making that move knowing that you have Santander who hasn't embarrassed himself there and O'Hearn who has been a godsend (even though struggling this last month).  The hope is by mid season Mayo needs to be up so he will need somewhere to play so he can go to first or 3rd depending on the need.   

You don’t have a CFer.  If he was healthy this year, I think the offense would have been very good.  Otoh, health is an issue for him as he gets older.

Unless you trade for Robert and move on from Mullins, I don’t see it.

 

[turtlebowl]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t have a CFer.  If he was healthy this year, I think the offense would have been very good.  Otoh, health is an issue for him as he gets older.

Unless you trade for Robert and move on from Mullins, I don’t see it.

 

Don't disagree, Cowser would hopefully be the fill in until either Beavers is ready or if that doesn't pan out you have Bradfield that hopefully can fill the spot in a couple seasons.  I wouldn't be shocked if Mateo could also be above average in center with extended reps.

Obviously the long term hope is Cowser hits and becomes our fixture in LF and then Hays is moved or platooned.

Edited October 2, 2023 by turtlebowl

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

Don't disagree, Cowser would hopefully be the fill in until either Beavers is ready or if that doesn't pan out you have Bradfield that hopefully can fill the spot in a couple seasons.  I wouldn't be shocked if Mateo could also be above average in center with extended reps.

Obviously the long term hope is Cowser hits and becomes our fixture in LF and then Hays is moved or platooned.

Cowser isn’t a CFer and you don’t trade Mullins in a contending year to put a sub 600 OPS hitter with very little CF experience.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The reality is that the Os have Mayo, Cowser, Kjerstad, Holliday, Ortiz and ,Basallo and OFers like Bradfield, Beavers and Fabian that can all be big time contributors sometime in the next year or so..obviously some sooner than others.

The reality is, we don’t know if they will contribute as much or more than the guys they would replace, or whether they’ll be significant downgrades.  There’s significant risk involved, especially when you’re talking about a team that’s winning with the personnel it already has.  If this was the 2021 offseason, decisions like this would be easy.  

That paragraph might sound like I’m advocating standing pat.  I’m not.  I’m just saying these decisions aren’t simple.  Our evaluators have a lot of tricky decisions to make.  I’ll say this: I’m not making any moves yet based on what guys like Beavers, Fabian or Bradfield might do in 2-3 years.  None of those guys have a better than 50/50 chance to be better than our current outfielders at this stage.   Ask me again in a year and maybe I’ll feel differently.  
 

[Idaho_OriolesFan]

Here's just my "feel", admittedly not based on more than the little I know.. rather the vibe I get watching the games.

Hays, Hicks, O'hearn, Henderson, Mountcastle, Rushman, Mccann are all the solid basis for the team - they hit, they field, they're all arounders; if one or two of them don't show up, the others typically do. I don't know the stories behind why they would stay or why they would not, BUT if I'm the manager, I'm wanting to hold onto that core if possible.

Mullins is an awesome fielder (and a highlight reel of his wall catches is one of the reasons I chose to become an Orioles fan) but I'm not certain what the team offers him other than maintaining where he's at. It seems he's added in as a "addition" to something that's taking place rather than being part of the core of that something itself. And honestly, he plays like it. Sometimes the all-star and then long bouts of meh. I gotta think that on a career basis he's looking for what will take him to the next level.

Santander... I just don't feel that he would choose to stay. He's cool, he hits like a madman (when he doesn't strike out) but I think he's got other places to go on his trip to stardom. I think that Baltimore is a stepping stone for him.

Mateo, Urias, Kjerstad ... well, each one of them makes me nervous when it's their time at bat and they HAVE to get a hit. Don't get me wrong, obviously you can't play at this level unless your very good, and each of them can get a hit... but I feel it's a bit more Vegas odds whether they do. Urias? (who?) he seems to come in and then disappear again without notice or wrinkle. Mateo, guy can steal a base like no-ones business, and has hit a few clutch hits, but again.. small namer. Kjerstad? Young and promising. (does anyone ever get over myocarditis?) If I had to choose between the three, I guess I'd be between keeping a proven moderate Mateo or betting on a potential up and comer Kjerstad. 

[turtlebowl]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cowser isn’t a CFer and you don’t trade Mullins in a contending year to put a sub 600 OPS hitter with very little CF experience.

I thought the idea was to trade guys while they still had value (before the crash) and fill that position with a cheaper version? You are speculating that Mullins would of hit better if he wasn't injured.  All I'm saying is this is 2 years in a row with stats showing a downward trend so if it happens again next season you have a player that won't be worth a bag of balls at the end of next season because it will be assumed his skillset is fading.  We basically got Hicks off the street because he couldn't stay healthy and his production had completely fallen off.

Also, you make a statement that Cowser is a sub .600 player so does that mean you don't make plans for him next season?  Of course you need a fall back option but I thought you are always all for making sure the young guys get opportunity.

We do agree that Cowser isn't a natural center fielder but in my scenario you would have a defensive minded backup, be it Hicks, Mckenna or someone else.  If Cowser doesn't hit enough to make up for lack of range then we definitely want to have someone on the roster who can play top notch D to fall back on.

You can't predict development.  I know I didn't expect Gunner to look this good at short and honestly Westburg has been way better than I thought we would see based off of scouting reports.  

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The reality is, we don’t know if they will contribute as much or more than the guys they would replace, or whether they’ll be significant downgrades.  There’s significant risk involved, especially when you’re talking about a team that’s winning with the personnel it already has.  If this was the 2021 offseason, decisions like this would be easy.  

That paragraph might sound like I’m advocating standing pat.  I’m not.  I’m just saying these decisions aren’t simple.  Our evaluators have a lot of tricky decisions to make.  I’ll say this: I’m not making any moves yet based on what guys like Beavers, Fabian or Bradfield might do in 2-3 years.  None of those guys have a better than 50/50 chance to be better than our current outfielders at this stage.   Ask me again in a year and maybe I’ll feel differently.  
 

We are all aware that there are no sure things. I don’t think that needs to be stated, whether it’s going to the young players or keeping the vets.  That is obvious.

That being said, we have Holliday, Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad who are, by most rankings, all top 30 guys and they are all performing at a high level and ready to be here or, at the very least, very close.

And this doesn’t include Ortiz, who has been a consensus top 75 guy.

Plus you have Norby and Stowers.

All of them are ready.

You aren’t going to have that level of talent and let it go to waste. It’s just not happening. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

I thought the idea was to trade guys while they still had value (before the crash) and fill that position with a cheaper version? You are speculating that Mullins would of hit better if he wasn't injured.  All I'm saying is this is 2 years in a row with stats showing a downward trend so if it happens again next season you have a player that won't be worth a bag of balls at the end of next season because it will be assumed his skillset is fading.  We basically got Hicks off the street because he couldn't stay healthy and his production had completely fallen off.

Also, you make a statement that Cowser is a sub .600 player so does that mean you don't make plans for him next season?  Of course you need a fall back option but I thought you are always all for making sure the young guys get opportunity.

We do agree that Cowser isn't a natural center fielder but in my scenario you would have a defensive minded backup, be it Hicks, Mckenna or someone else.  If Cowser doesn't hit enough to make up for lack of range then we definitely want to have someone on the roster who can play top notch D to fall back on.

You can't predict development.  I know I didn't expect Gunner to look this good at short and honestly Westburg has been way better than I thought we would see based off of scouting reports.  

First of all, I was referring to Mateo as the sub 600 guy.

And you can trade Mullins if you have a real replacement for him. This organization does not currently have a replacement for him.

[Yossarian]

16 minutes ago, Idaho_OriolesFan said:

Here's just my "feel", admittedly not based on more than the little I know.. rather the vibe I get watching the games.

Hays, Hicks, O'hearn, Henderson, Mountcastle, Rushman, Mccann are all the solid basis for the team - they hit, they field, they're all arounders; if one or two of them don't show up, the others typically do. I don't know the stories behind why they would stay or why they would not, BUT if I'm the manager, I'm wanting to hold onto that core if possible.

Mullins is an awesome fielder (and a highlight reel of his wall catches is one of the reasons I chose to become an Orioles fan) but I'm not certain what the team offers him other than maintaining where he's at. It seems he's added in as a "addition" to something that's taking place rather than being part of the core of that something itself. And honestly, he plays like it. Sometimes the all-star and then long bouts of meh. I gotta think that on a career basis he's looking for what will take him to the next level.

Santander... I just don't feel that he would choose to stay. He's cool, he hits like a madman (when he doesn't strike out) but I think he's got other places to go on his trip to stardom. I think that Baltimore is a stepping stone for him.

Mateo, Urias, Kjerstad ... well, each one of them makes me nervous when it's their time at bat and they HAVE to get a hit. Don't get me wrong, obviously you can't play at this level unless your very good, and each of them can get a hit... but I feel it's a bit more Vegas odds whether they do. Urias? (who?) he seems to come in and then disappear again without notice or wrinkle. Mateo, guy can steal a base like no-ones business, and has hit a few clutch hits, but again.. small namer. Kjerstad? Young and promising. (does anyone ever get over myocarditis?) If I had to choose between the three, I guess I'd be between keeping a proven moderate Mateo or betting on a potential up and comer Kjerstad. 

Regarding Santander:  if you think Santander wants to step up from Baltimore, where do you think that would be?  I would say if he wants to play on the big stage in the post season, Baltimore will give him a better opportunity than just about any team other than the Braves or Dodgers for the next 5 years (and he isn't going to be picked up by either of those two).

You also present a false dichotomy regarding keeping either Mateo or Kjerstad.  They are not competing against each other for a roster spot because they do not play the same position or have the same skill set.  It is not one of the other with them. 

 

[Idaho_OriolesFan]

10 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Regarding Santander:  if you think Santander wants to step up from Baltimore, where do you think that would be?  I would say if he wants to play on the big stage in the post season, Baltimore will give him a better opportunity than just about any team other than the Braves or Dodgers for the next 5 years (and he isn't going to be picked up by either of those two).

You also present a false dichotomy regarding keeping either Mateo or Kjerstad.  They are not competing against each other for a roster spot because they do not play the same position or have the same skill set.  It is not one of the other with them. 

 

Keep in mind that I qualified all of this with a subjective "my feeling is... my vibe is..." and acknowledged my noobness to the team.  That being said, I dont know where Santander would go, but my "feel" is that he has the ability to be a superstar, not just on the field, but socially - like movie-star / media / tabloid sort of thing. I think he finds a fanbase (sometime, somewhere) that makes him a hometown hero/celebrity. 

No false dichotomy meant re: M & K. I'm simply explaining the fantasy league that's in my mind. OP --> "IF I HAD to choose".  Let's say it was a money thing... or a get rid of one or two to bring in some other dynamic. Other than that, I'm gleaning from the forums and taking a shot at participating.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Idaho_OriolesFan

[Yossarian]

21 minutes ago, Idaho_OriolesFan said:

Keep in mind that I qualified all of this with a subjective "my feeling is... my vibe is..." and acknowledged my noobness to the team.  That being said, I dont know where Santander would go, but my "feel" is that he has the ability to be a superstar, not just on the field, but socially - like movie-star / media / tabloid sort of thing. I think he finds a fanbase (sometime, somewhere) that makes him a hometown hero/celebrity. 

No false dichotomy meant re: M & K. I'm simply explaining the fantasy league that's in my mind. OP --> "IF I HAD to choose".  Let's say it was a money thing... or a get rid of one or two to bring in some other dynamic. Other than that, I'm gleaning from the forums and taking a shot at participating.

Got it.  Thanks. 

[EddeeEddee]

2 hours ago, Idaho_OriolesFan said:

Keep in mind that I qualified all of this with a subjective "my feeling is... my vibe is..." and acknowledged my noobness to the team.  That being said, I dont know where Santander would go, but my "feel" is that he has the ability to be a superstar, not just on the field, but socially - like movie-star / media / tabloid sort of thing. I think he finds a fanbase (sometime, somewhere) that makes him a hometown hero/celebrity. 

No false dichotomy meant re: M & K. I'm simply explaining the fantasy league that's in my mind. OP --> "IF I HAD to choose".  Let's say it was a money thing... or a get rid of one or two to bring in some other dynamic. Other than that, I'm gleaning from the forums and taking a shot at participating.

Santander is a good player who I happen to like a lot but definitely not a "superstar" numbers wise.  He's perhaps comparable to Adam Jones with the bat (though not the glove).  But looking at his stats he's not at all comparable to a true baseball superstar like Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna or Mookie Betts.  If you're suggesting he might want to go play for a big market team in NY, California or Texas, then I'm sure many of them would be interested, but certainly not at superstar money.  

But this does touch on a point that I have thought a bit about lately.  Santander is 28.  Some players don't peak until their early 30s or so.  That's probably true for only a minority of players, but it is possible he could be one of those guys.  Probable?  Maybe not.  But I would not be surprised if Santander's best years are in the future.  We'll have to wait and see. 

[forphase1]

I probably hope to see more gone than likely will happen really.  But there are some interesting decisions to make.

McKenna - He's out of options, so the flexibility to have him as a AAAA player is gone.  I don't think he's good enough to stay on the MLB roster for a full season.  If it were my call I'd try to trade/DFA/non-tender him over the winter to free up his roster spot.  The only exception would be IF you are trying to keep a kid in the minors until they pass a certain service days requirement, and then McKenna is the one cut to make room for them.  Otherwise no reason to wait.

Frazier - he's gone.  I think there is VERY small chance they bring him back, and I really hope they don't really consider it.

Mateo/Urias - One needs to go, if not both.  A month ago I would have rather seen us keep Urias, but the way he ended the year so shaky with the glove and didn't have a good year with bat (.703 OPS) now I'm not sure.  Mateo was even worse with the bat (.607 OPS), but the glove was better than Urias (though not nearly as good as last year) and he brings game changing speed.  Neither should be starters though, only pinch runners and/or giving the starters a day off.  I would rather move on from both I think, but it's likely we bring at least one back.  But with Ortiz/Holiday/Norby we don't need both of them.

Hicks - I'd rather not see us resign Hicks.  While he played better than I expected when we signed him after Mullins was hurt, he was not very good in the outfield and the bat certainly cooled off after starting out pretty good for us.  That said he did have a .735 OPS, which is almost exactly league average overall (.734).  At this point I'd rather his at bats going to Cowser (didn't look good in his 61 MLB at bats but did OPS .937 in AAA) or Kjerstad (.748 OPS in very SSS).   

Mountcastle/OHearn - grouping them together simply since they largely swapped back and forth at 1st.  This one is tough for me.  I like Mountcastle and he ended up having a decent year (.779 OPS and 2.1 WAR) while OHearn did better with a .801 OPS, but less WAR, 1.2.  The problem with both is with them penciled into the lineup, there is no real room for a Mayo.  Now Mayo only has 217 AAA at bats, so maybe it's not super urgent, but man that bat seems ready to get promoted.  Of course there is the issue on where he plays, but with Gunnar/Holiday/Ortiz/Westburg I don't see much chance of seeing Mayo on the SS/3rd side of the infield.  I REALLY can't see them trading Mayo so something is going to have to give here sooner than later I feel.

Santander - Of the three outfield starters (Santander, Hays, Mullins) I think Santander is the one most likely to not be an Oriole next year.  Mullins is fairly safe as we really don't have anyone ready to play CF.  Sure, Cowser can play it, but I think he's more suited to a corner spot.  Kjerstad is also a corner outfielder.  The other possible CFers in the minors are too unproven and/or young and/or questionable (Beavers/Fabian/Bradfield/Haskin).  Hays plays a solid LF and was worth 2.6 WAR this year to go with his .769 OPS.  He faded in the 2nd 1/2 of the season as is usual for him, but didn't quite fall off as he had in some years past.  But I think he's defense keeps him on the team, that and money.  Which brings us to Santander.  He had 3.0 WAR and an OPS of .797 and played a decent RF.  But he cost 7.4M, is arb eligible, and will be a FA in 2025, compared to Hays who cost only 3.2M this year and isn't a FA until 2026.  We may all wish that money wasn't a factor, but at the same time we know it will be, to at least some degree.  I expect Santander to be traded this offseason, hopefully to shore up the bullpen since Bautista is out all 2024. 

So I see about 5 position players who contributed significantly to the 2023 season who are possibly gone.  I have no idea if one of those roster spots will go to another Odor/Frazier type vet who Hyde and Elias love, though with some of our own guys now having a handful of years under their belts I don't know if the 'need' to bring in another grizzled vet will still apply.  I hope not, but it wouldn't surprise me. 

While the above may seem extreme, we really aren't talking replacing 5 starters.  McKenna didn't start often, and Hicks only started here and there when Mullins was healthy.  Mateo and Urias didn't often both start together.  Really, the only 'starters' I see us replacing is Frazier and Santander.   Biggest issue I see with not bringing back Hicks and McKenna is who plays CF behind Mullins, and I don't have a great answer for that other than Cowser.  

[Roll Tide]

12 hours ago, turtlebowl said:

I thought the idea was to trade guys while they still had value (before the crash) and fill that position with a cheaper version? You are speculating that Mullins would of hit better if he wasn't injured.  All I'm saying is this is 2 years in a row with stats showing a downward trend so if it happens again next season you have a player that won't be worth a bag of balls at the end of next season because it will be assumed his skillset is fading.  We basically got Hicks off the street because he couldn't stay healthy and his production had completely fallen off.

Also, you make a statement that Cowser is a sub .600 player so does that mean you don't make plans for him next season?  Of course you need a fall back option but I thought you are always all for making sure the young guys get opportunity.

We do agree that Cowser isn't a natural center fielder but in my scenario you would have a defensive minded backup, be it Hicks, Mckenna or someone else.  If Cowser doesn't hit enough to make up for lack of range then we definitely want to have someone on the roster who can play top notch D to fall back on.

You can't predict development.  I know I didn't expect Gunner to look this good at short and honestly Westburg has been way better than I thought we would see based off of scouting reports.  

Cowser looked terrible in CF. 

[Roll Tide]

14 hours ago, Idaho_OriolesFan said:

Here's just my "feel", admittedly not based on more than the little I know.. rather the vibe I get watching the games.

Hays, Hicks, O'hearn, Henderson, Mountcastle, Rushman, Mccann are all the solid basis for the team - they hit, they field, they're all arounders; if one or two of them don't show up, the others typically do. I don't know the stories behind why they would stay or why they would not, BUT if I'm the manager, I'm wanting to hold onto that core if possible.

Mullins is an awesome fielder (and a highlight reel of his wall catches is one of the reasons I chose to become an Orioles fan) but I'm not certain what the team offers him other than maintaining where he's at. It seems he's added in as a "addition" to something that's taking place rather than being part of the core of that something itself. And honestly, he plays like it. Sometimes the all-star and then long bouts of meh. I gotta think that on a career basis he's looking for what will take him to the next level.

Santander... I just don't feel that he would choose to stay. He's cool, he hits like a madman (when he doesn't strike out) but I think he's got other places to go on his trip to stardom. I think that Baltimore is a stepping stone for him.

Mateo, Urias, Kjerstad ... well, each one of them makes me nervous when it's their time at bat and they HAVE to get a hit. Don't get me wrong, obviously you can't play at this level unless your very good, and each of them can get a hit... but I feel it's a bit more Vegas odds whether they do. Urias? (who?) he seems to come in and then disappear again without notice or wrinkle. Mateo, guy can steal a base like no-ones business, and has hit a few clutch hits, but again.. small namer. Kjerstad? Young and promising. (does anyone ever get over myocarditis?) If I had to choose between the three, I guess I'd be between keeping a proven moderate Mateo or betting on a potential up and comer Kjerstad. 

Kjerstad to a  .904 OPs this year in almost 600 ABs. I’d say he’s recovered. The problem is where is he going to play defensively.