O's 2024 Payroll using MLBTR and Cots

[Just Regular]

The QO possibility also puts more of an investment context on a Santander $12mm outlay vs. Gibson $10mm.

If a QO decline garners ~$2mm in pool dollars for the 2025 draft, and the true value of that is ~$10mm, Santander's 2024 salary almost pays for itself.

Its certainly interesting times with this particular little game, Santander, Hays and Means are all borderline cases.    The worry from the viewpoint of John Angelos needing slush money for concert tickets is what if the Player accepts and then the Orioles have a good-ish player for ~1/20.

We're coming off the Martin Perez-Joc Pederson QO offseason, and see what Dipoto does with Teoscar Hernandez.

The QO stuff happens fast when the postseason concludes, and the Santander decision will hopefully also occur in a moment of more happiness than this October gave.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-offseason-dates-rules-and-terms

The qualifying offer is a one-year offer worth the mean salary of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players. This value changes by the year. For the 2022-23 offseason, the value was $19.65 million. The offers must be made to eligible players within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, and players then have until Nov. 15 at 4 p.m. ET to accept or reject.

Edited October 15, 2023 by Just Regular

[Aristotelian]

45 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

When you mention an outfielder went errorless it makes you look like you are digging deep for a positive and weakens your argument.

When you nitpick one small post in a well thought, balanced post it makes it look like you are digging deep for a negative and weakens your argument. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

While Cowser, Stowers and others may not look like the answer, at some point, something must be done with them. They are mashing AAA pitching. If they are intended to one day replace Santander, Mullins or Hays, then they need to be given regular opportunities against major league pitching, much like how Gunnar was. If this is not the intention, then just trade them and give our current OF's extensions. Either way, just keeping them at AAA will not be helping them nor the team. 

[wildcard]

29 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

While Cowser, Stowers and others may not look like the answer, at some point, something must be done with them. They are mashing AAA pitching. If they are intended to one day replace Santander, Mullins or Hays, then they need to be given regular opportunities against major league pitching, much like how Gunnar was. If this is not the intention, then just trade them and give our current OF's extensions. Either way, just keeping them at AAA will not be helping them nor the team. 

I don't see Elias offering 3 to 5 year extensions to Santander, Hays or Mullins as they approach free agency.   Given players guaranteed contracts into their 30 while their performance  is likely to decline seems counter to the approach of developing all these prospects.  Rather I think Elias replaces them when there is a need to make the decision on extending them.

I agree that Stowers, who will 26 in January,  has reached the point where they need to trade him  because he is behind outfielders Cowers and Kjerstad.

Norby may also need to be traded because he is behind Ortiz, Westburg, Holliday and  Mayo in the infield and Cowser and Kjerstad in the outfield.   Since he hit so well in a full season at AAA he may become dissatisfied with repeating AAA without much hope of call up in 2024. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

28 year old Hays is an All-Star in 2023.  He has an 853 OPS in the 1st half.  He did not make an error in left field all year.  He has a strong, accurate arm that many do not run on in the league.  I will not be surprised if he is a GG finalist.  He did not have a great offensive 2nd half but was playing through injuries when he probably should have be sitting and healing.

The question is do the O's have a replacement that can match that performance in a year the O's are going for the WS?   Kjerstad does not have the speed to play LF in Camden Yard.   And Cowser is unproven.  

Trading Hays comes with a pretty big risk.   IMO the best way to manage that risk is keep Hays and when he gets banged up IL him for 10 days or two weeks or a month and promote Cowser for that  period.  Breaking Cowser in slowly when trying to replace Hays or Mullins or Santander, seem like a better approach during a contending season.

I think you make a solid case for why Hays stays but enough of the “he’s better than his actual numbers because”.   He had a .769 OPS last year which tied for his highest over the last 3 years and his career OPS is .751 and he’s 28 years old.   Offensively, he’s very replaceable.   What is hard to replace is the fact that he played a very good LF in OPACY this year and his RH bat is a good balance to a lot of potential LH bats.   
 

Cowser is probably the only current prospect who would have been considered his 2024 replacement and his debut caused doubts on both sides of the ball.   How strongly Hyde and Elias still feel about Cowser will go a long way.  
 

I agree with some that replacing Santander in RF with Kjerstad seems the most logical but I agree with Baltfan about the clubhouse implications and his productivity maybe keeping him here one more year.   
 

Hays and Santander might both be back.  The Orioles love the idea of deep depth so breaking in Westburg at 2B or 3B while working Kjerstad in at RF/DH while Santander gets more reps at 1B could be another thing you see.  But what about O’Hearn then?

I don’t know but I think we all agree with Corn that room needs to be made for some of these prospects.  The question is which ones, how many at one time, and how quickly.   I don’t think we’re going to see more than Westburg and Kjerstad next OD but there’s always the chance they’ll surprise me and maybe we see Ortiz and/or Cowser too.   Then there’s Holliday and Mayo to consider.   
 

I’m sure there is hesitancy to make too many changes and subtractions from a 101 win so I could see Urias, Mateo, Hays, Mullins, and Santander all staying this winter.   Stay tuned.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

When you nitpick one small post in a well thought, balanced post it makes it look like you are digging deep for a negative and weakens your argument. 

When you feel a need to interject yourself into a conversation just to criticize me it makes it look like you have an agenda.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I think you make a solid case for why Hays stays but enough of the “he’s better than his actual numbers because”.   He had a .769 OPS last year which tied for his highest over the last 3 years and his career OPS is .751 and he’s 28 years old.   Offensively, he’s very replaceable.   What is hard to replace is the fact that he played a very good LF in OPACY this year and his RH bat is a good balance to a lot of potential LH bats.   
 

Cowser is probably the only current prospect who would have been considered his 2024 replacement and his debut caused doubts on both sides of the ball.   How strongly Hyde and Elias still feel about Cowser will go a long way.  
 

I agree with some that replacing Santander in RF with Kjerstad seems the most logical but I agree with Baltfan about the clubhouse implications and his productivity maybe keeping him here one more year.   
 

Hays and Santander might both be back.  The Orioles love the idea of deep depth so breaking in Westburg at 2B or 3B while working Kjerstad in at RF/DH while Santander gets more reps at 1B could be another thing you see.  But what about O’Hearn then?

I don’t know but I think we all agree with Corn that room needs to be made for some of these prospects.  The question is which ones, how many at one time, and how quickly.   I don’t think we’re going to see more than Westburg and Kjerstad next OD but there’s always the chance they’ll surprise me and maybe we see Ortiz and/or Cowser too.   Then there’s Holliday and Mayo to consider.   
 

I’m sure there is hesitancy to make too many changes and subtractions from a 101 win so I could see Urias, Mateo, Hays, Mullins, and Santander all staying this winter.   Stay tuned.

Never said Hays is better than his offensive and defensive numbers.   I do think when healthy he is better than Cowser at this point.   Cowser has some growing to do and Elias has to determine that time table.

Edited October 15, 2023 by wildcard

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Never said Hays is better than his offensive and defensive numbers.   I do think when healthy he is better than Cowser at this point.   Cowser has some growing to do and Elias has to determine that time table.

You made the point that Hays first half OPS was .853 and then proceeded to make excuses for his second half which brought his OPS down to .769 which is just about his career average.     Were you making the point that Hays could be closer to that .853 player if played the proper amount of time and only when 100% healthy.

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You made the point that Hays first half OPS was .853 and then proceeded to make excuses for his second half which brought his OPS down to .769 which is just about his career average.     Were you making the point that Hays could be closer to that .853 player if played the proper amount of time and only when 100% healthy.

I am dealing with the facts.   Hays did have a 853 OPS in the 1st half and he did make the All Star team.  Those are both facts.   That is the level of play at 27/28 years old that  he is capable of.

Anyone who watches Hays play sees him run into walls.  He dives  and lays out to catch balls hitting the ground with his body.   In the second half he stated he was play banged up.   This is not new for Hays.  This is the way he plays.

Hyde did not put Hays of the IL this year.  Not when he crushed his fingers trying to bunt.  Not when he was limping. Nor when his 2nd half  OPS dropped to  667.   I certainly think that when Hays is healthy he plays better than when he is hurt.   I think it affects his speed and I think it affects his swing.

Personally I think it would be better for the team next year if Hyde put Hays on the IL when he is hurt.  And play Cowser or Hicks (when Hicks is healthy).  I think it would be better for the team and for Hays overall.

Edited October 15, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

When you mention an outfielder went errorless it makes you look like you are digging deep for a positive and weakens your argument.

I do not think that’s true at all.  Obviously errors are not the sole indicator of defensive prowess, but they’re relevant.  

I agree with wildcard that Hays will probably be a GG finalist, and deservedly so.   But I expect Steven Kwan to beat him out for the award.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do not think that’s true at all.  Obviously errors are not the sole indicator of defensive prowess, but they’re relevant.  

I agree with wildcard that Hays will probably be a GG finalist, and deservedly so.   But I expect Steven Kwan to beat him out for the award.   
 

I see what isn't considered an outfield error and I put no weight in someone not having any.

 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I see what isn't considered an outfield error and I put no weight in someone not having any.

 

Well, I do see your point there.  

[RZNJ]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am dealing with the facts.   Hays did have a 853 OPS in the 1st half and he did make the All Star team.  Those are both facts.   That is the level of play at 27/28 years old that  he is capable of.

Anyone who watches Hays play sees him run into walls.  He dives  and lays out to catch balls hitting the ground with his body.   In the second half he stated he was play banged up.   This is not new for Hays.  This is the way he plays.

Hyde did not put Hays of the IL this year.  Not when he crushed his fingers trying to bunt.  Not when he was limping. Nor when his 2nd half  OPS dropped to  667.   I certainly think that when Hays is healthy he plays better than when he is hurt.   I think it affects his speed and I think it affects his swing.

Personally I think it would be better for the team next year if Hyde put Hays on the IL when he is hurt.  And play Cowser or Hicks (when Hicks is healthy).  I think it would be better for the team and for Hays overall.

Right.  You think the .853 OPS is the healthy Hays and the career .751 OPS is because he plays hurt and it hurts his OPS.   I think the .769 OPS is pretty close to the Hays we can expect going forward no matter how judiciously he’s used.

[RZNJ]

Just now, Frobby said:

Well, I do see your point there.  

Right, but I would say an outfielder with around 6+ errors is usually a sign of a bad outfielder.

[Frobby]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Right.  You think the .853 OPS is the healthy Hays and the career .751 OPS is because he plays hurt and it hurts his OPS.   I think the .769 OPS is pretty close to the Hays we can expect going forward no matter how judiciously he’s used.

Agreed.   Hays might not have had his best year yet, but he’s pretty much established who he is.