Mountcastle/Hays Trade Value

[casadeozo]

12 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

The problem with both these players is that they are both 'guys" but not "dudes." Meaning they are tweeners. They are too good/pricy for rebuilding clubs and not difference makers for contending clubs. I think some BP help is all you can expect and maybe a low level lottery ticket.

If BP help is the best we could do, is it better to keep them?

Or do we have to trade one or both of them to open up a spot for Cowser/Kjerstad?

[DrungoHazewood]

23 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

Hes basically a platoon 1st baseman which obviously we can improve upon.

With whom? Mountcastle is an average-plus MLB first baseman. He's a decent enough hitter for a first baseman, and he's not a bad fielder or baserunner. You can probably expect 2-3 wins a year out of him for the next 3-4 years. He's not a free agent until '27.  And there's an outside chance he could give you a whole year like his 2nd half this year, and nearly OPS .900.

So who are you putting there that's better? If you sign a free agent who's likely to give you 3+ wins a year you can expect to pay upwards of $20M a year, probably well into that guy's decline phase. If you trade for someone in that category, expect to pay a hefty price in prospects.

And actually, Hays is in a pretty similar spot. He's not a big star, he's not likely to give you a 4-5 win season. But he's solid, he's average-plus. Even 100-win teams have more solid guys than huge stars.

To me you need a strategy to get a better player that's executable in the Orioles' budget and in the reality of what other teams will accept before you start shopping around guys like this.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

If BP help is the best we could do, is it better to keep them?

Or do we have to trade one or both of them to open up a spot for Cowser/Kjerstad?

Or do you get rid of players like Hicks, McKenna, Frazier, or even O'Hearn before you send away more talented guys? Why can't they open '24 with Kjerstad, Hays, Mullins, Sandander and Cowser all on the roster, with Mayo ready the minute someone is injured?  This year a lot went right and Mullins missed 46 games, Hays 18, Cowser played just 113 at all levels, Kjerstad 135. There will be opportunities.

[DirtyBird]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

With whom?

Santander, Mayo, Kjersted

Edited October 11, 2023 by DirtyBird

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Santander, Mayo, Kjersted

At first base? I guess. I'd just be careful about wishcasting 3+ win performances out of every prospect. Mountcastle is already a solid first baseman. The Orioles have a deep system and a lot of options for trades to shore up the rotation. Wouldn't surprise me if Mountcastle stays a while.

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

At first base? I guess. I'd just be careful about wishcasting 3+ win performances out of every prospect. Mountcastle is already a solid first baseman. The Orioles have a deep system and a lot of options for trades to shore up the rotation. Wouldn't surprise me if Mountcastle stays a while.

I actually think it is crazy at this point to label pretty much anyone as someone you want to trade, or don't want to trade. The market is very fluid and we don't know what types of returns are available. 

If we believe we are getting a return for Mountcastle that makes us better, it might mean taking a risk with who we replace him with at 1B.

[Pickles]

54 minutes ago, dzorange said:

Over/under… Hays or Mountcastle bring back a return similar to what Mancini did

Over.  Better be way over.

[Aristotelian]

I have to say, Mountcastle impressed me with his defense in the ALDS. And his plate discipline improved a lot when they fixed his vertigo. But could it come back? Tough call, he is a productive bat but from the wrong side. He'd be best in a platoon role but you can't really carry a guy who can only play 1B vs LHP. We already have DH options. He's not bad, he just isn't great. 

[Moose Milligan]

I think the best exercise, as always, is to pretend that the Orioles are going to trade for Mountcastle or Hays.  

What would you give up for Mountcastle or Hays?  There's your answer as to what they're worth, probably.

[Pickles]

31 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think the best exercise, as always, is to pretend that the Orioles are going to trade for Mountcastle or Hays.  

What would you give up for Mountcastle or Hays?  There's your answer as to what they're worth, probably.

The problem with that exercise is it denies the fact that the Orioles are not in the position of any other team.

Every other team's situation is unique.

So a starting LF or 1b has different value for different clubs.

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mountcastle has obviously been trending down for a few years?

I don't think any team in MLB is stupid enough to trade more for Hays because he made an All-Star game.

Maybe RM has been trending down because he didn't hit as many HRs this year? Ok? Bet you didn't think of that , huh, smart guy?

 

Maybe Hays can be packaged w/ someone (not Mountcastle), Mullins? Santander?

 

Maybe explain to the masses here how trade value works. I know, never mind.

[DirtyBird]

Mountcastle, Kremer and Norby

for George Kirby

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, dzorange said:

Over/under… Hays or Mountcastle bring back a return similar to what Mancini did

Either one should bring a bigger return than Mancini, who only had two months of control remaining when he was traded.  

[casadeozo]

Could Hays + Maybe Norby get us Manoah? Would that interest Toronto 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, casadeozo said:

Could Hays + Maybe Norby get us Manoah? Would that interest Toronto 

Boy would that make for a fun thread.

 

 

My second though is that if that was enough then it would be too much.

They are only letting him go for that if they think he ain't coming back.