Infield alignment

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

But that is the exact mentality some will have. 

It’s non sensical. The best teams every year do things to get better especially if they lose key pieces, as the Os have and will have.

The other side of the coin is that the Orioles went from an 83 win team to a 101 team and he acquisitions last year were Gibson, Irvin, Frazier, O’Hearn, and McCann.   Hardly anything considered a needle mover in the right direction.   The team mostly got better from internal improvement.  
 

No one had a career year with the exception of Bradish and Bautista and, I guess, O’Hearn.

So, someone arguing that we “have to” make changes is probably someone who argued the same thing last year and didn’t think much of the changes that were made.    We need a starter to replace Gibson.  Other than that I don’t see changes that “have to” be made.  There are changes that could be made and I’m interested to see what they are.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

The other side of the coin is that the Orioles went from an 83 win team to a 101 team and he acquisitions last year were Gibson, Irvin, Frazier, O’Hearn, and McCann.   Hardly anything considered a needle mover in the right direction.   The team mostly got better from internal improvement.  
 

No one had a career year with the exception of Bradish and Bautista and, I guess, O’Hearn.

So, someone arguing that we “have to” make changes is probably someone who argued the same thing last year and didn’t think much of the changes that were made.    We need a starter to replace Gibson.  Other than that I don’t see changes that “have to” be made.  There are changes that could be made and I’m interested to see what they are.

 

I'd counter that by saying the O's overshot both their pythag and their expected runs scored.

That is unlikely to continue.

[Matt Bennett]

2 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Every single player has some story to help explain their season just beyond the slash lines, be it Mullins, Hays, Mateo or heck even those with good slash lines like Henderson.  But in the end the numbers are what the numbers are.  Mullins has regressed for 2 straight years.  Be it injuries or the league catching up to him or whatever.  Looking at 2024 and beyond, we need to try to figure out which Mullins we are going to get.  He plays a great CF and was have no one in the wings to really take his spot, so he's 'safe' so to speak.  But if we are going to have an average Mullins fielding CF all year long, then we need to improve our lineup in other areas to account for the lesser production from CF.  We'd all love to see the Mullins from 2021 return, or the great Mullins we had to start the year.  Heck, we'd all love to see the April Mateo return!  But is that realistic?  Or just wishful thinking?  

The difference there is that Mullins was a what, 5.0 WAR full season pace player from April 2021 to June 2023? And then suddenly became 2018-2019 Mullins after a groin injury that sent him to the IL twice and he said hoped wouldn't keep him out all season. Whereas Mateo has always sucked at hitting and had one month in his career to suggest otherwise. One is much more wishful than the other. 

[NCRaven]

I think it's difficult to know whether the young players overshot or exceeded expectations since they didn't have a ML history to project from.  Rutschman, Henderson and Westburg are still growing at the Major League level.  There are reasonable expectations that Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo and even Holliday may get substantional ML time next season.  Much of any improvement in offensive performance in '24 may come internally, just as it did in '23.  I continue to believe that resources, whether cash or prospects, would be best spent on acquiring two quality pitchers, one in the rotation and one in the bullpen.

Edited October 20, 2023 by NCRaven

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd counter that by saying the O's overshot both their pythag and their expected runs scored.

That is unlikely to continue.

And no Felix. 
 

Expecting the same luck/good fortune we had with RISP, record in 1 run games, etc…is a foolish expectation.

You need to put a better team out there.

[tntoriole]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The other side of the coin is that the Orioles went from an 83 win team to a 101 team and he acquisitions last year were Gibson, Irvin, Frazier, O’Hearn, and McCann.   Hardly anything considered a needle mover in the right direction.   The team mostly got better from internal improvement.  
 

No one had a career year with the exception of Bradish and Bautista and, I guess, O’Hearn.

So, someone arguing that we “have to” make changes is probably someone who argued the same thing last year and didn’t think much of the changes that were made.    We need a starter to replace Gibson.  Other than that I don’t see changes that “have to” be made.  There are changes that could be made and I’m interested to see what they are.

 

I think a bit of an upgrade replacement from Gibson and a bullpen veteran (along with the usual dumpster diving, look what we found , oh it’s Danny Coulombe type search)  will do just fine.   

I would love another veteran bat though too.  A Nelson Cruz type. 

I will be happy if it is more ambitious too. 

[forphase1]

5 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

The difference there is that Mullins was a what, 5.0 WAR full season pace player from April 2021 to June 2023? And then suddenly became 2018-2019 Mullins after a groin injury that sent him to the IL twice and he said hoped wouldn't keep him out all season. Whereas Mateo has always sucked at hitting and had one month in his career to suggest otherwise. One is much more wishful than the other. 

Oh, sure.  If you asked me to put money on who is more likely to be a 5.0 WAR player next year between Mullins and Mateo, it's Mullins without a doubt.  But, based on this last years performance, both are a risk, though not at the same risk level.  

We had a great season, but some of it came from players who had an awesome first half/first month or so and then really faded down the stretch.  I know we still had a great record even in the last months of the season, but the holes were evident and were glaring in the playoffs.  But with O'Hearn, Mateo, Hays, Mullins etc all seriously regressing as the season progressed, regardless of the 'why', it brings how to handle them or what to expect from them going forward into question.  

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd counter that by saying the O's overshot both their pythag and their expected runs scored.

That is unlikely to continue.

Sure, 101 wins is unlikely.  I’d argue again that having the good GRod and Means from the beginning is going to be an improvement and that Wells and Hall in the bullpen will soften the blow of no Bautista.    I expect improvement offensively from Westburg who also improves the defense from the getgo.   I think Kjerstad gets integrated with Santander and Hays still on the team.   No one knows.  That’s what makes it fun but Westburg and Kjerstad could be vital cogs in this years offense and we still have a lot of depth on the farm depending on who, if anyone, gets moved this winter.

It’s not that I’m against making changes.  I have an issue saying it’s imperative that we make changes.  It was argued that the failure to make changes in 2014 doomed the team to failure.  Then it’s only fair to point out the 2013 team hardly changed before improving in 2014.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I think a bit of an upgrade replacement from Gibson and a bullpen veteran (along with the usual dumpster diving, look what we found , oh it’s Danny Coulombe type search)  will do just fine.   

I would love another veteran bat though too.  A Nelson Cruz type. 

I will be happy if it is more ambitious too. 

The only big bat with PED usage on their record is Tatis and I don't think that's viable. 

[jamalshw]

A lot broke right for the Orioles in 2023, but there's also reason to expect improvement in a number of places internally without moves.

I'm a huge advocate for another SP (Gray is my pick, but there are other options) and another bullpen arm (or better yet, two), but outside of that, I don't know that the Orioles NEED any other major moves. 

Offensively, yes there was some luck and they overachieved their Pythag W-L by 7 wins. BUT, I do expect internal improvement. Henderson had a huge year and is the expected ROY, but I do think there is even more there particularly if he can avoid the early season adjustment period. I think it's fair to expect more from the infield if Urias, Frazier and Mateo's ABs are replaced with Holliday, Westburg and Ortiz--and maybe Mayo as well depending on your thoughts on his defense at 3B. Adley and Santander have offered consistent production the last two years so I don't expect regression there. What O'Hearn and Hicks provided was huge and that will regress, but I don't think they resign Hicks and am an advocate to move on from O'Hearn in favor or Kjerstad and Mayo. The young guys will have some growing pains, of course, but there's enough quantity there as well as quality. I wouldn't turn down a BIG bat in the order, but it would truly have to be a VERY BIG bat and I just don't see the Orioles making the kind of move for the kind of player that moves the needle on offense. The need to me is much easier to move on the pitching side.  

[Matt Bennett]

2 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Oh, sure.  If you asked me to put money on who is more likely to be a 5.0 WAR player next year between Mullins and Mateo, it's Mullins without a doubt.  But, based on this last years performance, both are a risk, though not at the same risk level.  

We had a great season, but some of it came from players who had an awesome first half/first month or so and then really faded down the stretch.  I know we still had a great record even in the last months of the season, but the holes were evident and were glaring in the playoffs.  But with O'Hearn, Mateo, Hays, Mullins etc all seriously regressing as the season progressed, regardless of the 'why', it brings how to handle them or what to expect from them going forward into question.  

Trust me, I'm not content. We need to get better. Better enough to cancel out regressions in 1 run games, pythagorean W-L, numbers with RISP, any luck and still win 100 games. And some actual playoff games.  

Trading away Mullins isn't how we get better. O'Hearn, sure. He's not that good of a bet. We know what Mateo is. We know what Hays is as well but I like my 3.0 WAR outfielders. 

Everyone has their own off-season wish-list they'll repeat twenty times. I want 1 or 2 TOR starters via free agency and a trade of O'Hearn while letting the FA's walk. At-bats for Cowser, Kjerstad, Ortiz to start. Maybe a trade of Hays or Urias is the best way to get that. Maybe not. 

[tntoriole]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sure, 101 wins is unlikely.  I’d argue again that having the good GRod and Means from the beginning is going to be an improvement and that Wells and Hall in the bullpen will soften the blow of no Bautista.    I expect improvement offensively from Westburg who also improves the defense from the getgo.   I think Kjerstad gets integrated with Santander and Hays still on the team.   No one knows.  That’s what makes it fun but Westburg and Kjerstad could be vital cogs in this years offense and we still have a lot of depth on the farm depending on who, if anyone, gets moved this winter.

It’s not that I’m against making changes.  I have an issue saying it’s imperative that we make changes.  It was argued that the failure to make changes in 2014 doomed the team to failure.  Then it’s only fair to point out the 2013 team hardly changed before improving in 2014.   

Umm Nelson Cruz says hello? Andrew Miller at deadline?  And losing Nick Markakis to Travis Snider? 
 

2013 offseason was WAY WAY better than 2014 offseason 

[tntoriole]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The only big bat with PED usage on their record is Tatis and I don't think that's viable. 

Dang ….. Ortiz is too good of an analyst I guess too lol 

Edited October 20, 2023 by tntoriole

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Dang 

As is the case a lot of the time I'm both joking and not joking.  The only reason the O's could get Cruz on that one year deal was because of his PED suspension cratering his market.

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Umm Nelson Cruz says hello? Andrew Miller at deadline?  And losing Nick Markakis to Travis Snider? 
 

2013 offseason was WAY WAY better than 2014 offseason 

Guess I got it wrong.  Maybe it was the 2015 off-season.  I’ll have to te-check but I remember having a similar discussion before about that time period.