Santander Speculation

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I disagree that something that’s happened two years in a row specifically affects your planning.   I think you plan from general principles.  And in general principles, there are always getting injured, players going hot and cold, players who struggle in one circumstance or another.   So you build your team to be resilient against whatever of those issues may arise, rather than overreacting to something specific that came up last year, or even two years in a row.   You don’t take two points and assume you can draw a line between them and extend that line out to infinity.    That’s not how things work in the real world.   

Fool me once, shame of you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.   If something happens over two long seasons, a GM is not doing his job if he doesn't build a plan to be prepared for it happening a third time.  Especially if the GM has all the options that Elias has.

Edited October 28, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

True,  but only to a point.   Some players are more injury prone than others, for whatever reason (style of play,  prior injuries,  'weaker' body, etc).  Some are also more prone to long cold streaks than others who are more consistent.  No,  a 2 year trend is not a straight line that shows what will happen in year 3, but I'm willing to bet that any good probability/risk assessment chart would have a significantly higher risk/ injury probability for the player who had been injured 2 years in a row versus a player who has been healthy for those 2 years.  That should be taken into account when planning the 3rd year. 

I’ll buy it, but going into 2021 all I heard was about how Santander and Hays were so injury prone.  And now, three years later, Hays is number 52 in all of MLB in games played 2021-23, and Santander is 62nd.   So maybe they’re not all that injury prone, they just happened to have a few injuries early in their careers.   IMO, there’s a lot of randomness to injuries and some guys just roll snake eyes a couple of times even though they’re no more “prone” to injuries than anyone else.  

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Fool me once, shame of you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.   If something happens over two long seasons, a GM is not doing his job if he doesn't build a plan to be prepared for it happening a third time.  Especially if the GM has all the options that Elias has.

Ok.  Hays has an .800 OPS on July 15.  When do you bench him.  Let’s say he has a .700 OPS for the last two weeks of July and continues to hit that way BUT he’s healthy and playing plus defense.   When do you bench him and replace him with a rookie?

[Malike]

13 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

I say we have a problem. We need a 40 HR, .900 OPS, intimidating bat in the middle of the lineup - not just a bunch of streaky low .800’s OPS guys.

There were 6 guys in the entire league who hit 40 or more HR's and 10 in total with an OPS of .900 or greater. 4 players did both, you have a high bar.

Edited October 28, 2023 by Malike

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Ok.  Hays has an .800 OPS on July 15.  When do you bench him.  Let’s say he has a .700 OPS for the last two weeks of July and continues to hit that way BUT he’s healthy and playing plus defense.   When do you bench him and replace him with a rookie?

Well, last year Hays topped on on June 20 and then bottomed out on August 2 before getting hot for most of August.  So obviously you bench Hays on June 21 and then put him back in the lineup on August 3.

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ll buy it, but going into 2021 all I heard was about how Santander and Hays were so injury prone.  And now, three years later, Hays is number 52 in all of MLB in games played 2021-23, and Santander is 62nd.   So maybe they’re not all that injury prone, they just happened to have a few injuries early in their careers.   IMO, there’s a lot of randomness to injuries and some guys just roll snake eyes a couple of times even though they’re no more “prone” to injuries than anyone else.  

Hays played but he was hurt the whole second half of 2022. He clearly and obviously broke down.

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok.  Hays has an .800 OPS on July 15.  When do you bench him.  Let’s say he has a .700 OPS for the last two weeks of July and continues to hit that way BUT he’s healthy and playing plus defense.   When do you bench him and replace him with a rookie?urt

He was playing.  He was not healthy.  He has learned to play through injuries.  But the injuries do affect his productivity.  

Hyde knows when he is hurt.  The training staff know what they are treating. The last two years it has been a matter of who is better than a hurt Hays.   If they have no one better they play Hays.  But in 2024 it's going to be Hays vs Cowser.   Cowser has done all he needs to do at AAA.   If Hays crushes his finger while bunting in 2024 he probably goes on the 10 day IL instead of sitting hurt on bench unable to help the team.

Edited October 28, 2023 by wildcard

[zweem]

Santander being a switch hitter is a big deal to me--- our LH hitters are pretty awful vs LHP.

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’ll buy it, but going into 2021 all I heard was about how Santander and Hays were so injury prone.  And now, three years later, Hays is number 52 in all of MLB in games played 2021-23, and Santander is 62nd.   So maybe they’re not all that injury prone, they just happened to have a few injuries early in their careers.   IMO, there’s a lot of randomness to injuries and some guys just roll snake eyes a couple of times even though they’re no more “prone” to injuries than anyone else.  

2 points.   1 , Hays particularly plays even when injured/banged up,  and that has seriously hampered his performance.  Yeah,  he's got the games played under his belt,  but that's not necessarily due to his actual health,  but partly is playing through those injuries.   Which is admirable, but sometime hurts the team IMO.  2, sure sometimes it's just bad luck and not really being more 'prone' which is why it's a probability chart and not a certainality chart. 

[Sports Guy]

53 minutes ago, zweem said:

Santander being a switch hitter is a big deal to me--- our LH hitters are pretty awful vs LHP.

It’s only a big deal if you are productive from each side. Santander, for most of his career, has not been.

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s only a big deal if you are productive from each side. Santander, for most of his career, has not been.

I just checked his career splits.  .755 as a LH and .785 as a RH batter.   Not sure what you based your statement on but it appears to be incorrect.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=santaan02&year=Career&t=b

[G54377]

The cherry on top for Santander is that he is a SH that can hit lefties. That's important for us. Again, I just think what Santander provides will be much harder to replace than what Hays provides. I also think Santander is more likely to replicate 2023 than Hays. 

[CP0861]

I feel like a lot of people are overvaluing Santander. I'm going to call it the Mancini effect, lol.  He's familiar to us all, but he's just not as good as some of you make him out to be.

Earlier in this thread, he was mentioned as a 30/100 guy, which he's literally never done.

He was also mentioned in this thread as a MOO #3/#4 playoff hitter. Which he was for the Orioles this postseason, but only out of necessity with a young roster....and they got bounced in the 1st round. But, he's NOT that guy. 

Keep it simple folks, he's only under contract for one more year, he's pushing 30 and he's about to get expensive. He's also a streaky hitter with a whopping .248 career BA. Yet he has some value, so you do whatever you can do to trade him/package him and get something back. They can replace 20something home runs and a .250 BA.

The Orioles have 14 younger oufielders with higher ceilings. You can't keep everyone. There is an OF surplus and other areas of need. It's very simple.

 

 

 

Edited October 30, 2023 by CP0861

[Roll Tide]

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/mlb-executives-expect-the-baltimore-orioles-to-trade-either-anthony-santander-or-austin-hays-this-offseason

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, CP0861 said:

I feel like a lot of people are overvaluing Santander. I'm going to call it the Mancini effect, lol.  He's familiar to us all, but he's just not as good as some of you make him out to be.

Earlier in this thread, he was mentioned as a 30/100 guy, which he's literally never done.

He was also mentioned in this thread as a MOO #3/#4 playoff hitter. Which he was for the Orioles this postseason, but only out of necessity with a young roster....and they got bounced in the 1st round. But, he's NOT that guy. 

Keep it simple folks, he's only under contract for one more year, he's pushing 30 and he's about to get expensive. He's also a streaky hitter with a whopping .248 career BA. Yet he has some value, so you do whatever you can do to trade him/package him and get something back. They can replace 20something home runs and a .250 BA.

We've got 14 younger oufielders with higher ceilings. You can't keep everyone. We need pitching.

 

 

Sound pretty dismissive of Santander's importance to the O's in 2024.   He is as established switchhitting power hitter who has average 30 homers over the last two years.   He had 95 RBI last year.  He is a leader for the Latin players.    Who else to the O's have that has done that?  No-one.

He would be hard to replace.

Sure Kjerstad, Gunnar and Mayo may all that the capability to be 30 homer middle of the order hitters sometime in the future but other then Gunnar I would not bet on that kind of production in 2024 from the rookies.  The O's are building for a World Series run in 2024.   I think they keep their good players like Santander and add not subtract.