Outfield Surplus?

[wildcard]

Question 1:   Who thinks  Hays, Mullins or Santander are going to be with the O's in 2025?

So if they are not,  then the O's will probably need Cowser and Kjerstad in 2025.  Beavers is coming but right now he is just depth in case Cowser or Kjerstad don't produce.

Question 2: Who thinks Cowser or Kjerstad will out play Hays and Santander in the 1st half of 2024?

So is Elias really dealing with a surplus or just a progression from the current outfield to the future outfield while contending for a WS run?

[Sports Guy]

I would be surprised if any of those 3 are here in 2025. 

[Frobby]

Bottom line, I have no idea if Cowser and Kjerstad will outplay Santander and Hays.  It’s a reasonably high bar.  

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Bottom line, I have no idea if Cowser and Kjerstad will outplay Santander and Hays.  It’s a reasonably high bar.  

I agree.

So I think Elias sticks with Hays, Mullins and Santander for 2024.

 Then plans for Cowser and Kjerstad in 2025.   They can be backups for 2024.  The O's are going to need more than 3 outfielders in 2024.

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would be surprised if any of those 3 are here in 2025. 

I agree.  

[Tony-OH]

Here's the current 2024 outfield depth as I see it:

LF: Hays, Cowser, Hicks (If resigned), Hilliard, McKenna, Norby (Not on 40-man but is ready offensively), Vavra
CF: Mullins, Hicks, Cowser, Hilliard, McKenna
RF: Santander, Kjerstad, Hicks, Cowser, Stowers, Hilliard

Hicks is a prototypical 4th outfielder though he may want to play somewhere where he has a chance to start. If healthy, I don't see where he gets those PAs with the Orioles, especially since Kjerstad is ready and Cowser probably is too.

Is that a surplus? 

Right now, the Orioles have a surplus of major league ready position players and need to package some for some impact relief and maybe MOO or SP help.
 

[Aristotelian]

I wouldn't call it a surplus, especially at CF. It's really hard to find a good CF who can hit, and we really need two guys with CF skill set to play in our park. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one of them play out their arb years.

Santander - 2%

Hays - 40%

Mullins - 49%

 

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Here's the current 2024 outfield depth as I see it:

LF: Hays, Cowser, Hicks (If resigned), Hilliard, McKenna, Norby (Not on 40-man but is ready offensively), Vavra
CF: Mullins, Hicks, Cowser, Hilliard, McKenna
RF: Santander, Kjerstad, Hicks, Cowser, Stowers, Hilliard

Hicks is a prototypical 4th outfielder though he may want to play somewhere where he has a chance to start. If healthy, I don't see where he gets those PAs with the Orioles, especially since Kjerstad is ready and Cowser probably is too.

Is that a surplus? 

Right now, the Orioles have a surplus of major league ready position players and need to package some for some impact relief and maybe MOO or SP help.
 

IMO 

Hays, Mullins and Santander are starters in 2024 who will not be back 2025.

Cowser and Kjerstad are projected as starters in 2025 and will be kept as backups in 2024.

McKenna is out of option, will be DFA'd or non tendered and the O's will try to sign him to a minor league contract.

Hilliard does not hit and will be DFA'd to get him to AAA maybe for a high AAA salary.  He is similar to Daz Cameron last year.

Hicks will probably want a starting OF spot with another team.

Stowers and Norby are trade candidates. Urias is also a trade candidate.   Elias will see what kind of starter he can get for those three vs signing a FA starter like Seth Lugo 2/20.

That is how I see it until more information comes in.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I agree.

So I think Elias sticks with Hays, Mullins and Santander for 2024.

 Then plans for Cowser and Kjerstad in 2025.   They can be backups for 2024.  The O's are going to need more than 3 outfielders in 2024.

Remember, it’s not Santander/Hays vs. Cowser/Kjerstad.   You also factor in what we could get for Santander/Hays 

[jamalshw]

I think there is a current surplus, but I don't know that it's significant enough to make any major moves. I don't know that any of the young guys and outproduce the veterans in 2024, but at the same time, we need to make room in at least one spot for Kjerstad to get consistent ABs. That could be by moving on from O'Hearns and not resigning Hicks...OR it could be by moving on from ONE of the three. I'm open to a trade of one for a SP in a Bieber type trade. 

But I do agree to a point that Hays, Mullins and Santander look like the guys for 2024, but not much further beyond than that. I think it also would make more sense to sprinkle the youngsters in over time than all at once. Give Kjerstad RF most of the time with some time at DH and maybe 1B and see what happens. Cowser becomes the next man up for injury and--given the nature of the sport--likely sees some consistent playing time at least for some stretch in the year and hopefully shows better than he did in the big leagues in 2023 and he becomes a guy that can be plugged in when one or more of the aforementioned veterans are gone after 2024. 

Long story short, I don't think there is as much a surplus in the OF as the infield, but I do think there's at least a bit of surplus, not enough to necessitate a trade, but also not to the point that a trade has to be ruled out. If one of these guys can be the main piece in acquiring a SP, I'm for moving one. 

[wildcard]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Remember, it’s not Santander/Hays vs. Cowser/Kjerstad.   You also factor in what we could get for Santander/Hays 

However if you trade Santander or Hays it would probably be for pitching.  That decreases the offense when trying to compete with Texas' very good offense.   It does not help win in the playoffs. The O's already have GRod, Bradish and Means  plus Kremer.  The pitcher would have to be better than them to help at all which might not be enough for a lower offense.

If they trade Kjerstad or Cowser they are give up 6 years of control and go against what Elias long term plan appears to be.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

However if you trade Santander or Hays it would probably be for pitching.  That decreases the offense when trying to compete with Texas' very good offense.   It does not help win in the playoffs. The O's already have GRod, Bradish and Means  plus Kremer.  The pitcher would have to be better than them to help at all which might not be enough for a lower offense.

If they trade Kjerstad or Cowser they are give up 6 years of control and go against what Elias long term plan appears to be.

Texas might not even make the playoffs next year.  You seem to be hell bent on winning a rematch with them next year.

[btdart20]

COF has a 2:1 ratio just like the IF (2B/SS/3B).  4 COFers for 2 spots vs. 6 IFers for 3 spots (non-1B).

The RIP-pending IFers (Westburg/Ortiz/Holliday) have a fairly low bar (Mateo/Urias) to huddle.  The bar is higher for the RIP-pending OFers but the market value for the top of the deck is higher here.

[btdart20]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Texas might not even make the playoffs next year.  You seem to be hell bent on winning a rematch with them next year.

Who'll have better odds:  TEX or ATL?

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Texas might not even make the playoffs next year.  You seem to be hell bent on winning a rematch with them next year.

The O's want to win the WS next year.   That is the target.  Plan to beat Texas.

Maybe it will be Texas, maybe it won't.   But the plan should be to beat Texas.